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The Case for Investing in Europe (Updated), April 25, 2017

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The Case for Europe, Updated

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European indices and ETFs exploded to new 52-week highs yesterday following the expected French election results. The likely removal of that French political risk overhang reinforces our bullish thesis on Europe, especially given some wobbling in US economic data recently.

On March 21 we presented “The Case for Europe,” which was our bullish thesis on Europe as a tactical investment idea. Since we presented that piece, the three Europe ETFs we recommended have rallied an average of 4.2% vs. the S&P 500 just being flat over the same period. We think that outperformance from Europe can continue for the coming months, so we are presenting an updated “Case for Europe,” and reiterating our bullish stance on three Europe ETFs.

Bullish Factor #1: Compelling Relative Valuation. The reasoning here is simple. The S&P 500 is trading at the top end of historical valuations: 18.25X 2017 EPS, and 17.75X 2018 EPS. There’s not much room for those multiples to go higher, and if we get policy disappointment or the economic data loses momentum, markets could hit a nasty air pocket.

(Specific data and ETFs withheld for subscribers – unlock with free trial: 7sReport.com) 

So, while it’s true Europe should trade at a lower multiple vs. the US given the still-slow growth and political issues, those discounts are pretty compelling. In a world where most equity indices and sectors are fully valued, Europe offers value.

Update: The valuation gap still remains and European indices trade at a still steep discount to the S&P 500. We continue to think we can see multiple expansion in Europe that can help European stocks outperform their US counterparts.

Bullish Factor #2: Ongoing Central Bank Support. This one also is pretty simple… the ECB is still doing QE. The ECB is still planning to buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds through December of this year. That will support the economy, help earnings and push inflation higher, all of which are positive for stocks.

Update: The ECB reacted dovishly to perceptions that it might prematurely end QE or raise rates, and with inflation metrics still uncomfortably low, the chances of a hawkish surprise from the ECB anytime soon are low.

Bullish Factor #3: Overblown political risk. We’ve been talking about this for a while, but the fact is that political risks in Europe are overblown, and just like people underappreciated risks in 2016, I believe they are now overreacting to Brexit and Trump by extrapolating those results too far.

Going forward, there are really two important elections this year: France and Germany.

Update: Macron beat Le Pen in the first round of voting, and according to both the Harris and Ipsos polls taken right after voting on Sunday, Macron holds a large 64% to 36% ad-vantage ahead of the May 7 election.

Turning to Germany, they will have elections in September, and Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz will challenge Merkel for the Prime Minster position. Schultz is a former President of the European Parliament, and he’s not anti EU at all. So, if he wins, from an EU outlook standpoint, it isn’t a negative. Now, I’m not going to get into the details of his politics, because they aren’t yet important for this investment. The bigger point is that it’s not really a problem for the European economy if Schultz wins.

Bottom line, we’ve done well in international investments in the past (Japan during Abenomics, Europe when they started QE), and we believe this is another opportunity to outperform.

How to Play It: (Specific data and ETFs withheld for subscribers – unlock with free trial: 7sReport.com) 

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French Election: The Good, Bad & Ugly. April 21, 2017

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This Sunday is the first round of voting in the French election, and the event has the potential to move markets depending on which two candidates come in first and second. Yet before getting into the expected results, I want to give some background on how the election works and who is running.

How It Works: The French election almost always has two rounds of voting. The first round, which occurs Sunday, contains all major candidates. If one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, he or she be-comes president. However, because there are always so many candidates in the first round, this almost never happens (last time was in ’95).

So, the two top finishers from the first vote then face a run off in round two, which will take place two weeks from Sunday. Whoever wins that second vote becomes the French president. So, Sunday’s vote is important because it will determine which two candidates will advance to the second round on May 7.

Who Is Running: There are four candidates you need to be aware of: Macron, Fillon, Le Pen and Mélenchon. From a market standpoint, Macron and Fillon represent the status quo. The market would be fine with either winning the French presidency (i.e. no immediate sell-off).

That cannot be said for Le Pen and Mélenchon. To keep this simple and short, if Le Pen wins, the chances of a “Frexit” (France leaving the EU) go up considerably, as she is a far-right, anti-EU candidate. Conversely, Mélenchon is a far-left socialist. While he would keep France in the EU, his economic and social policies lie uncomfortably close to outright socialism. That clearly would not be good for the French economy, or French stocks.

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Election Results Scenario

The Good: Macron and Fillon Finish 1 & 2. Both are considered reasonably centrist, and the status quo in France would continue. Likely Market Reaction: (Withheld for subscribers. Unlock with a free trial — no credit card needed: 7sReport.com.)

The Bad: Le Pen or Mélenchon Finish 1 or 2. Based on polls, it’s likely that Le Pen will come in first or second in voting on Sunday, while Mélenchon is more of a dark horse. Likely Market Reaction: (Withheld for subscribers. Unlock with a free trial — no credit card needed: 7sReport.com.)

The Ugly: Le Pen and Mélenchon Finish 1 & 2. This is extremely unlikely based on polling, but as 2016 taught us, anything can happen. This is the market’s worst-case scenario, as it would introduce material political and economic risk into the European and global economies. We would view this result as a bearish gamechanger, and would likely exit HEDJ and EUFN longs. Likely Market Reaction: (Withheld for subscribers. Unlock with a free trial — no credit card needed: 7sReport.com.)

Bottom Line: From a macro standpoint, and for our position in HEDJ specifically, anything other than the “Ugly” scenario shouldn’t pressure markets materially. And while the “Bad” scenario will extend the possibility of political risk in France, all the indicators say that either Macron or Fillon will be the next French president—and that will only reinforce our bullish Europe thesis.

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