Updated Technical Take On the Market
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Updated Technical Take
- EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis
- More Bad Consumer Earnings
Futures are solidly higher following better-than-expected economic data and as markets continue to recoup Monday’s declines ahead of the Powell speech tomorrow.
Economic data was better than expected overnight as German GDP beat estimates (1.8% vs. (E) 1.4%) as did the IFO Business Expectations survey (80.3 vs. (E) 78.8).
On the Fed front, Bostic said the September rate hike was a 50/50 proposition between 50 bps or 75 bps, and that’s largely in line with market expectations.
Today’s focus will be on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 255k) and Revised Q2 GDP (E: -0.9%) and markets will want to see a continued slow rise in jobless claims and a stable GDP report (so not materially worse than expected).
Additionally, while the official Fed speaker calendar doesn’t have any events today, we should prepare for a deluge of Fed commentary via the financial media (CNBC, FT, WSJ, Marketwatch, etc.) as the Jackson Hole conference begins. Barring any major surprise commentary, though, markets should look past Fed speak today and focus on Powell’s speech tomorrow.
