The Fed outlook is essentially known at this point
The Fed outlook is essentially known at this point: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s
Stock Market Is In a Holding Pattern as Fed Officials Speak
“The Fed outlook is essentially known at this point,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.
He says that whether a first rate cut comes in September or December, it won’t matter too much.
“Maybe it causes a percent or two of volatility, but I don’t think it’s a substantial issue anymore,” Essaye says. “We know we’re getting something in September or December. I think the bigger question is, what’s growth look like when we get it.”
That’s why markets may hope for upbeat economic data in the months ahead, as signs of a slowing for the economy could have a more substantial impact on stocks than a brief delay for rate cuts.
“In the grand scheme of things, 25 basis points in September versus December, that’s not going to stop a slowdown if it’s occurring,” he says. “If somebody came out and said, ‘We’re thinking about not cutting rates at all,’ that would move markets. But I don’t think there’s any chance of that happening.”
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