Jobs Day Technical Preview & Wildcards to Watch
Jobs Day Technical Preview & Wildcards to Watch: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Report Technical Preview – S&P 500, 10Y, Gold, VIX (Shareable PDF)
- Two “Wildcard Scenarios” to Watch for Today
- Initial Jobless Claims Show Signs of Bottoming: Chart
Futures are flat while international markets were mostly lower overnight as traders await the widely anticipated May jobs report to gauge the outlook for Fed policy.
Economically, Eurozone GDP met estimates in Q1 at 0.4% y/y, however wage growth accelerated to 5.1% y/y in Q1 vs. 4.9% in Q4 after the ECB lowered inflation forecasts yesterday. The “warming” wage inflation data raises concerns the ECB moved to cut rates too early.
Today, focus will be on the May BLS Employment Situation release at 8:30 a.m. ET with an estimated +188K Job Adds, 3.9% Unemployment Rate, and 3.9% Wage Growth. The market needs to see an inline number preferably with a modest downside surprise on wages in order for dovish money flows and soft-landing hopes to continue to drive stocks to new records.
There is also one Fed speaker mid-day today: Cook (12:00 p.m. ET) and Consumer Credit (E: $10.4B) will be released late in the day but neither should more markets with markets digesting the jobs report.
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