What’s in Today’s Report:
- Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart
Stock futures are trading with cautious gains this morning as inflation data overseas met expectations as traders look ahead to today’s all-important CPI report in the U.S.
Economically, German and French CPI headlines both met estimates in June, holding steady from May levels which is offering hope that global inflation pressures have peaked while several growth metrics in the EU topped estimates.
Today, the focus will almost entirely be on the June CPI report with the headline expected to rise 1.1% m/m and 8.8% y/y from 8.6% in May while core CPI is expected to moderate with a rise of 0.5% m/m and 5.8% y/y from 6.0% previously.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move markets in the afternoon.
Bottom line, markets are at a tipping point here and today’s CPI report could cause a breakout if the data suggests we are beyond peak inflation and peak Fed hawkishness, while conversely, we could see sharp declines if the data comes in hot again