Jobs Report Preview (Too Hot, Too Cold, and Just Right)
Jobs Report Preview (Too Hot, Too Cold, and Just Right): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Report Preview: Too Hot, Too Cold, and Just Right Scenarios
- ISM Services Index Takeaways – A “Warm” Report
- EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Update
Equity markets are mixed in the pre-market as tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures are extending gains to new record highs while small-cap Russell 2000 futures are lower ahead of the ECB decision and more U.S. economic data. NVDA notably rose as much as 2% overnight.
Economically, Taiwan’s May CPI rose from 1.95% to 2.24% while German Manufacturing Orders were down -0.2% vs. (E) +0.5% and EU Retail Sales fell -0.5% vs. (E) -0.2%. The market is “ok” with the soft European data ahead of the widely anticipated ECB rate cut this morning.
Looking into today’s session, trader focus will be on the ECB Decision early (8:15 a.m. ET) and as mentioned, rate cuts to benchmark interest rates are expected which will leave commentary from Lagarde and any forward guidance provided critical to the market’s reaction.
In the U.S., there are no Fed speakers or notable Treasury auctions today so focus will shift to the several U.S. economic reports due to be released including: Jobless Claims (E: 216K), International Trade (E: -$75.2B), and potentially most importantly, Productivity & Costs (E: 0.2%, 4.7%).
Bottom line, any “cold” or stagflationary data has the potential to put this week’s rally on pause ahead of tomorrow’s all important jobs report.
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