Tom Essaye Joins Yahoo Finance To Discuss New CEOs

/in , /by

Tom Essaye joins Yahoo Finance to discuss new CEOs

New CEOs at Walmart & Target: Furner wins as Fiddelke rebuilds

John Furner has taken over as Walmart’s (WMT) new CEO, and the company continues to outperform. Meanwhile, Target’s (TGT) new CEO Michael Fiddelke is still betting on innovation to spark a turnaround.

Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye sit down with Opening Bid host Brian Sozzi to discuss.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on February 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

An Easy Way to Monitor Concerns About AI ROI

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Easy Way to Monitor Concerns About AI ROI
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Futures are trading higher with tech leading after PLTR and Samsung both posted very strong Q4 earnings results while a stabilizing precious metals market and optimism Congress will pass a spending bill are bolstering sentiment.

Economically, French CPI fell to +0.3% Y/Y in January vs. (E) +0.7%, down from +0.8% in December which is easing concerns about higher-for-longer central bank policy rates.

Today, there was one important economic report due to be released: JOLTS (E: 7.245 million) but it will be delayed due to the government shutdown.

The only other potential macro catalysts are a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and the Fed’s Barkin scheduled to speak before the open (8:00 a.m. ET) however, neither will likely move markets meaningfully with focus on the spending bill in Congress/government shutdown.

Finally, earnings season continues with quarterly reports due from PYPL ($1.29), PEP ($2.24), MRK ($2.03), AMGN ($4.75),  AMD ($1.11), and SMCI ($0.41) today.

 

Does the Warsh Nomination Jeopardize the Rally?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Does the Warsh Nomination Jeopardize the Rally?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Goldilocks Economy Still Rolling?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: “Big Three” Monthly Reports This Week (Including Jobs Friday)

Futures are moderately lower on momentum from Friday’s decline as markets digest the surprise Warsh nomination.

Geopolitical headlines were mixed as the government partially shutdown (but should be brief) while fears of a strike against Iran receded on positive Trump comments.

Economically, Chinese Feb. PMIs missed estimates and both the manufacturing and services PMIs fell below 50.

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.3) as that is the first of the big monthly economic reports, and the stronger the data, the better for stocks.

We also have one Fed speaker today, Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets (the market just wants to hear from Warsh now)

Earnings continue on, meanwhile, and some key reports today include: DIS ($1.57), PLTR ($0.17), NXPI ($2.93).

 

Sevens Report Warns Weaker Dollar Is Supercharging a Run-Hot Economy

/in , /by

Sevens says Trump-linked dollar weakness is amplifying growth and inflation risks.

How Trump creates another ’run-hot’ influence on the economy

The latest Sevens Report argues that the U.S. economy is being pushed further into a “run-hot” phase as the dollar slides to multi-year lows. According to the firm, President Trump’s dismissal of recent dollar weakness effectively signaled tolerance — if not support — for further depreciation, accelerating trends already in place.

Sevens notes that fiscal stimulus, pressure for lower rates, deregulation, and efforts to pull in foreign capital have already tilted the economy toward overheating. A weaker currency compounds that backdrop by ensuring more liquidity is chasing a limited supply of goods and services, keeping inflation pressures elevated even as growth remains strong.

The report outlines three key transmission channels. First, a softer dollar raises import costs, lifting prices on consumer goods in an import-dependent economy. Second, it boosts earnings for multinational companies, helping explain recent outperformance in technology and consumer discretionary stocks. Third, it inflates the value of real assets such as gold, oil, and other commodities that cannot be diluted like fiat currencies.

Sevens cautions that the dollar’s roughly 11% decline over the past year is far from benign. While markets have absorbed the move so far, a faster slide toward the low 90s could unsettle investors and intensify the risk of sustained inflation alongside resilient growth.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on January 29th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

I Think It Would Help Sentiment – Says Tom Essaye

/in , /by

I think it would help sentiment, says Tom Essaye

Review & Preview: It’s Only January?

“If we could go a weekend without some sort of tariff threats, or arresting of a foreign leader, or threatening to bomb Iran—if we could go a couple of days, I think the market would appreciate it,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told me. “I think it would help sentiment a bit and let us refocus on the data—which is pretty Goldilocks—and earnings, which, on balance, are fine.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on January 30th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Based Inflation Expectations Post-Fed

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Based Inflation Expectations Post-Fed

Futures are moderately lower on the news that President Trump will nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.

The Warsh nomination is a surprise (Waller and Rieder were the favorites) and he’s not the market’s first choice, as Warsh has been hawkish on the use of QE in the past.

Staying with politics, a deal apparently has been reached to avoid a government shutdown (which is a positive).

Today focus will be on the President’s Fed announcement and, again, while Warsh isn’t a negative for markets, it wasn’t the market’s first choice and that is why we’re seeing profit taking in gold and silver this morning (gold down 3%).

Outside of the Fed, we do get PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and some notable earnings from lenders/credit card companies: SOFI ($0.12) and AXP ($3.55).  Good commentary about consumer spending will be welcomed by the markets.

 

Another “Run Hot” Policy (Weaker Dollar)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Another “Run Hot” Policy (Weaker Dollar)
  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are modestly higher on better than expected mega-cap tech earnings and reduced shutdown risks.

Big tech earnings weren’t perfect but, on balance, were positive as META (up 10% pre-open) and TSLA (up 2% pre-open) beat while MSFT (down 7% pre-open) disappointed.

Shutdown risks fell on reports that President Trump and Senate Minority leader Schumer were close to a deal to extend government funding.

Focus today will be on Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and another round of important earnings.

Potentially market moving reports today include:  AAPL ($2.65), V ($3.14), MA ($4.20), SNDK ($3.31), CAT ($4.67), LMT ($6.24) and BX ($1.52).

 

FOMC Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview – Expected, Dovish-If, and Hawkish-If Scenarios
  • Chart – Silver Goes Parabolic, up 150%+ in Three Months

Futures are trading at record highs ahead of today’s Fed decision as ASML, a top supplier for the global semiconductor industry, posted strong earnings and optimistic guidance overnight, fueling a resurgence in mega-cap tech and growth stocks overnight.

Economically, the German GfK Consumer Climate Index edged up from -26.9 to -24.1 vs. (E) -25.5 but the release did not materially move markets.

There are no notable economic reports today which will leave investors focused on the Fed today with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference shortly after at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Beyond the Fed, the first mega-cap U.S. tech companies will release earnings today including MSFT ($3.88), META ($8.32), TSLA ($0.33), and IBM ($4.33). Other noteworthy names releasing quarterly earnings today include: GEV ($3.03), T ($0.46), and PGR ($4.44).

In order for stocks to continue higher, investors will be looking for a benign (dovish-leaning) Fed decision and strong tech earnings like we saw from ASML overnight which would have the potential to power the major indexes further into record territory.

 

Sevens Report Warns Against Complacency as Earnings Season Ramps Up

/in , /by

Sevens Report Warns Against Complacency as Earnings Season Ramps Up

Investors may be led into a trap as stock market discards new tariff threats, analyst warns

As markets brush off renewed tariff threats and push higher, Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research is cautioning investors not to assume the path forward is risk-free.

Essaye says the resilience in stocks following recent policy volatility risks creating complacency just as earnings season enters its most important stretch. While investors appear confident that solid earnings and steady economic growth will offset political uncertainty, Essaye argues neither factor should be taken for granted.

According to the Sevens Report, the opening phase of earnings season has been underwhelming, even if outright disappointments have been limited so far. With the next two weeks representing the core of reporting season, Essaye says results will matter more than headlines and could challenge the market’s optimistic tone.

On the economic front, Essaye notes that growth remains firm but warns that a strong backdrop does not make the economy immune to pressure. Persistent affordability issues could still slow momentum, particularly if earnings expectations begin to soften.

The takeaway, Essaye says, is that investors should resist the temptation to believe stocks will automatically rebound from every setback. If doubts emerge around earnings or growth, today’s calm market could quickly become far more fragile.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Flags Risk of Sharp Reversal in Natural-Gas Prices

/in , /by

Tyler Richey says futures structure and weather trends argue the rally may fade fast.

Natural-gas prices doubled in the last 5 trading sessions. Here are signs a ‘sharp collapse’ may soon unfold.

With the February natural-gas futures contract expiring at the end of Wednesday’s trading session, it will be “critical” to watch the price of the March contract, which is trading at a roughly $2.50 discount to the February contract, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

That leaves the “futures duration curve in a steep backwardation dynamic” — meaning the current price is higher than prices for contracts for delivery further out in the future, Richey told MarketWatch.

The higher near-term prices and lower prices for contracts for delivery in the months ahead also suggest the rally in the February futures contract is based on near-term supply concerns, and “not any longer-term structural market worries of a prolonged supply shortage,” said Sevens Report’s Richey.

At the same time, weather models are forecasting more moderate temperatures in the coming weeks, which should theoretically see the rally in natural-gas prices “subside, assuming there is no lasting damage impacting domestic natural-gas production [and] logistics,” said Richey.

“That could set futures prices up for a sharp collapse in the sessions ahead,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.