The Natural-Gas Market Is Primed For Volatility In The Near Term Says Sevens Report

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Warmer weather could easily serve as a catalyst for a significant price drop in natural gas says Tyler Richey.

Natural-gas prices extend their rally, but analysts warn of volatility tied to this week’s contract expiration

The natural-gas market is primed for more volatility in the near term, “with multiple dollar price swings” possible as icy and snowy weather continues to pound the eastern part of the U.S. and as below-average temperatures are expected to linger this week, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. “But the prospects of warmer weather in early February could easily serve as a catalyst for a significant price drop in natural gas, with its futures market traditionally one of the most volatile in the entire commodity complex,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Warns Early-2026 Inflation Signals Are Flashing Red – Business Insider

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Tom Essaye says sector leadership and market rotation echo the painful setup of 2022.

The stock market is flashing a signal that inflation may be poised to spike

Early market action in 2026 is sending a cautionary signal on inflation, according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, who says investors may be underestimating the risk of a difficult year ahead.

Essaye notes that energy and materials stocks have surged more than 9% year to date, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500’s modest gain. Historically, strength in these sectors has often preceded broader inflation pressures, as higher energy and materials costs filter through supply chains and lift prices across the economy.

In Essaye’s view, the move is especially notable because it has received little attention from market participants so far. He argues that energy prices influence nearly every component of global commerce, while materials costs quietly add upward pressure to inflation through higher input expenses. Together, their strong performance is not something investors should dismiss as the first quarter unfolds.

Adding to the concern is a clear shift in market leadership. Essaye highlights a rotation away from mega-cap growth stocks and toward value, small caps, transportation stocks, and equal-weight indexes. Recent outperformance in benchmarks like the S&P 500 equal-weight index, the Russell 2000, and value-focused ETFs suggests that capital is moving toward areas that often lead during more inflationary or unstable periods.

That combination of sector leadership and early-year money flows reminds Essaye of the setup in early 2022, a year that proved especially damaging for traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolios. While he is not calling for an immediate downturn, Essaye cautions that these dynamics raise the risk of a repeat scenario if inflation pressures continue to build.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on January 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Natural Gas Is Clearly In A Weather-Driven Market Dynamic Says Tyler Richey

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The fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast says Tyler Richey.

Natural-gas prices see ‘historic’ surge as U.S. braces for winter storm. What that means for heating bills.

To say that natural-gas futures surged on Wednesday would be “an understatement as prices posted a gain of historic magnitude,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, in Thursday’s newsletter. “Natural gas is clearly in a weather-driven market dynamic with fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 23rd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two Reasons Markets Have Been So Resilient YTD

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Reasons Markets Have Been So Resilient YTD
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on the Fed (Will They Hint at Rate Cuts Later in the Year?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Growth and Inflation Updates

Futures are modestly weaker but have rebounded from steep overnight declines, as more political/policy volatility is weighing on futures.

Government shutdown risks spiked over the weekend following another incident with ICE, while separately, President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canada.

Economically, the only report was German Ifo Business Expectations and it slightly missed estimates.

Today focus will be on Washington via rising government shutdown risks and the tariff threats on Canada.  Any headlines that make a shutdown seem more likely or that tariff threats will actually go through will weigh on markets, while deescalation on both will help fuel a rebound.

Outside of Washington political volatility, there is one economic report today, Durable Goods (E: 3.1%) and some earnings, STLD ($1.72), BKR ($0.67), NUE ($1.82), but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Why YTD Sector Performance Implies Inflation Risks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why YTD Sector Performance Implies Inflation Risks

Futures are little changed on mixed tech news and as the Bank of Japan decision met expectations.

Tech earnings/news was mixed as Intel missed (INTC down 13% pre-market) but a positive Bloomberg article on Nvidia (NVDA) chip sales to China is offsetting the INTC results.

The Bank of Japan held rates steady but signaled more hikes are coming, as expected (and that kept JGB’s calm).

Focus today will be on economic data and specifically the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.0) and Flash Services PMI (E: 52.8), which are the first national data points for January.  Stability in the data will be welcomed by markets as another reminder of the Goldilocks economy (which is stock positive).

We also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 54.0) and some earnings reports (SLB ($0.74), ERIC ($0.23), BAH ($1.26)) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Sevens Report: Why Rising Yields Drove the S&P 500’s Worst Day Since October

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Sevens Report: Why Rising Yields Drove the S&P 500’s Worst Day Since October

S&P 500 has its worst day since October. Here’s why stocks were down.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.293%, but “it’s not really a problem until 4.50% and higher,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report on the markets. “If yields keep rising, that will become an increasing headwind on markets and the economy.”

“The Goldilocks economic data continued last week, and that has been an important foundational positive and somewhat calming influence on markets amidst the recent headline chaos,” Essaye said. “As long as economic data stays this Goldilocks, the chances of a protracted decline in stocks will remain low.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on January 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Bar Has Been Lowered Says Tom Essaye

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Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

UAL Earnings Seek to Reverse Airline Caution Signaled by DAL

“The bar has been lowered” for United Airlines (UAL) after Delta Airlines (DAL) signaled caution in its earnings, says Tom Essaye. He sees investors focusing on guidance and whether United can weather global volatility. Tom tells investors to listen for commentary surrounding international travel, price cuts, and fuel impacts. Tom White helps investors navigate the options front through an example trade.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on January 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What’s Next from a Policy Standpoint

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Next from a Policy Standpoint
  • Monthly Bitcoin Update

Futures are moderately higher on continued positive momentum from the “deal” announced on Greenland by President Trump on Wednesday afternoon.

There were no new geopolitical headlines overnight and that’s allowing stocks to extend the rebound as markets celebrate no new tariffs and deescalation on Greenland. Today markets will want to see no backtracking on the Greenland “deal” and continued calm in JGB yields and if we get both, stocks should hold these early gains.

Looking at the calendar, there is some notable economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and two delayed reports from the government shutdown: Final Q3 GDP (E: 4.3%) and Nov. Core PCE Price Inde (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y).  However, barring a major surprise, none of those numbers should move markets.

On earnings, they’ve taken a back seat given all the geo-political drama but the season is heating up and some results we’re watching today include: PG ($1.87), GE ($1.44), FCX ($0.28), INTC (-$0.02), ABT ($1.50), ISRG ($1.83), COF ($4.12), AA ($0.84).

 

Tom Essaye Says Markets Trust The Rally’s Core Pillars Despite Political Noise

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Why Trump-Driven Selloffs Keep Becoming Buyable Dips

The TACO theory on Trump makes every ‘dip’ a buy, analyst says

“Trump is not going to willfully drive the markets or the economy into the ground. At least we hope not,” Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report Research, told Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid.

The theory has become the defining feature of Trump’s current term, Essaye argues. The administration started the year laser-focused on Venezuela and has since taken aim at credit card companies over interest rates, healthcare providers over insurance costs, and even the Federal Reserve.

“The sheer volume will test the TACO theory,” Essaye said.

Despite the noise, the underlying “four pillars” of the market rally — earnings growth, stimulus, Fed support, and the AI boom — remain largely intact. Essaye suggests that while protection is “relatively cheap” and perhaps necessary for those with no hedge, the “buy the dip” mentality shouldn’t be abandoned just yet.

“One of the most important things in investing is being able to cut out the headline noise and stay focused on the big trends,” Essaye said. He points to financials and healthcare as prime examples and some of the best trades to make right now, as these sectors often sell off 3% to 5% on a single social media post, only for the threatened regulations to never materialize.

Investors should focus on earnings, underlying economic growth, and the likelihood the Fed will cut rates in the first half of the year, Essaye said. Not to mention, “AI enthusiasm is alive and well,” he added.

Ultimately, the TACO trade relies on the belief that the president’s greatest vanity is the stock market ticker. As long as that holds true, every policy-driven dip should not be viewed as a disaster, but as a tactical entry point, per Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Yahoo Finance on January 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why “JGBs” and a “Run-Hot” Economy Matter to Your Clients

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why a Spike in Japanese Bond Yields Hit Stocks
  • Implications of the Administration’s Policies: A Run-Hot Economy (and What Might Come Next)

Stock futures bounced overnight amid stabilizing global bond yields as traders digested Tuesday’s volatile start to the short trading week before Trump’s speech in Davos.

Economically, the U.K.’s December CPI report was “warm” with the headline rising +0.2% to 3.4% vs. (E) 3.3% which saw yields come off their overnight lows in pre-market trading.

There are no economic reports due to be released today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak. However, President Trump is scheduled to deliver an address at the World Economic Forum in Davos at 8:30 a.m. ET, and any commentary on Greenland could roil markets in what has already been a volatile week.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s Treasury auctions saw weak demand across durations which added upside pressure to bond yields, and if we see more of the same in today’s auctions, rising yields could reignite volatility.

Finally, earnings season remains in full swing with a handful of noteworthy companies reporting today including: JNJ ($2.49), SCHW ($1.37), and KMI ($0.36).