What Greenland Headlines Mean for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Greenland Headlines Mean for Markets
  • Weekly Economic Outlook – Core PCE in Focus

Global markets are “risk-off” thanks to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe surrounding Greenland and a sharp rise in bond yields due to Japanese fiscal worries.

Economically, Germany’s ZEW Survey topped estimates with Economic Sentiment firming to 59.6 vs. (E) 50.0 but the data is being overshadowed by the sharp rise in JGB yields and geopolitical turmoil.

There are no economic reports today, however, the Treasury will hold auctions for 3-Month and 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m.

ET and 6-Week and 52-Week Bills at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong demand (dovish) should help stocks stabilize as we start the week.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today which will leave traders watching earnings closely with FITB ($1.01), MMM ($1.82), DHI ($1.96), USB ($1.19), NFLX ($0.55), IBKR ($0.51), and UAL ($2.98) all reporting Q4 results today.

 

January Market Multiple Table Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum from Thursday’s rally and following a quiet night that was devoid of any material earnings or economic data.

Oil is higher by 1% on reports the U.S. is moving military assets back into the Mid-East, implying the chances of a strike on Iran did not decrease as much as thought.

Today there are two economic reports, Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) and Housing Market Index (E: 40) as well as two Fed speakers: Bowman (11:00 a.m. ET) and Jefferson (3:30 p.m. ET), but barring a major surprise, none of that should move markets ahead of the long weekend.

Instead, focus will stay on Washington and any reports, headlines or social media posts that 1) Imply more attacks on the Fed or 2) Hint at military action in Iran, Greenland, Mexico, etc. will weigh on stocks.

Finally, on the earnings front, the week has been mostly focused on bank results and that continues this morning with several regional reports: PNC ($4.23), STT ($2.82), RF ($0.61), MTB ($4.44).

January Market Multiple Table (Rising Negative Pressure)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • January Market Multiple Table (Rising Negative Pressure on Market Influences)

Futures are modestly higher on dual de-escalation of recent Fed attacks and geopolitical tensions overnight.

President Trump stated last night he didn’t plan on firing Fed Chair Powell and downplayed the chances of a strike on Iran, de-escalating two negative market influences.

Today focus will be on economic data and earnings.  Starting with data, the key reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 212K), Philly Fed (E: -3.5) and Empire Manufacturing (E: 1.0) and stable readings that meet expectations will be the best-case scenario for stocks.  On the Fed front, there are three speakers today, Bostic (8:35 a.m. ET), Barr (9:15 a.m. ET) and Barkin (12:40 p.m. ET) and the more dovish they are, the better for markets.

Finally, turning to earnings, TSM ($2.82) already posted blow out numbers and that’s helping tech, but other reports we’re watching today include GS ($11.77), BLK ($12.41), MS ($2.41) and JBHT ($1.79).

 

Implications of Powell’s Criminal Investigation

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Implications of Powell’s Criminal Investigation
  • CPI Data Takeaways

Futures are moderately lower due to ongoing geopolitical angst and growing concerns about Japan’s fiscal situation ahead of snap elections announced for February.

Economically, Chinese trade data was strong overnight with Imports +5.7% vs. (E) -0.1% and Exports +6.6% vs. (E) +3.0%.

Today, investors will get a look at some delayed economic data from Q4’25 including PPI (E: 2.7% y/y), Core PPI (E: 2.6%), Retail Sales (E: +0.2%), and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.23 million). Investors continued to look for strong, but not “hot” growth numbers and “cool” inflation data.

There are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Paulson (9:50 a.m. ET), Miran (10:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (12:00 p.m. ET), and Williams (2:10 p.m. ET) with markets likely most focused on “Fed Independence” and any shifts in tone regarding 2026 rate cuts.

Finally, earnings season is continuing to ramp up with reports due from WFC ($1.66), C ($1.65), and BAC ($0.95) today.

 

Cutting Through the Policy Headline “Noise”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Implications of Recent Policy Headlines
  • A Closer Look at Credit Card Limits and Defense Company Shareholder Return Policies

Futures are lower thanks to ongoing geopolitical tensions overseas and “Fed independence” concerns ahead of a key U.S. inflation report due ahead of the bell as well as the unofficial start of earnings season today.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index firmed by 0.5 points to 99.5 vs. (E) 99.4 in December which is being viewed as a modest positive this morning.

Starting with the critical pre-market catalyst, investors will be focused on the release of December CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and the all-important Core CPI figure (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y). An in-line to cooler-than-expected print would be ideal for the stock market rally to continue.

Shortly after the open, the delayed November New Home Sales data (E: 714K) will be released but is not likely to move markets as the report is dated at this point.

Looking into the middle of the day, the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong auction results yesterday offered the market a modest tailwind, helping the S&P 500 end positive, so investors will be looking for more strong demand in today’s auctions.

With the Fed in focus amid the Trump-Powell drama from the weekend, the two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET) and Barkin (4:00 p.m. ET) will likely be closely watched for any commentary regarding “Fed Independence.”

Finally, today marks the unofficial start to Q4’25 earnings season with quarterly results due from JPM ($5.01), DAL ($1.53), and BK ($1.97) and with rather optimistic earnings/revenue estimates for 2026, investors will be looking for strong results to support the equity rally.

 

The Situation in Venezuela is Actually Bullish for Prices – Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

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The near-term impact of the situation in Venezuela is actually bullish for prices from a supply standpoint says Tyler Richey

Oil prices end 3% higher for the week as Venezuela looks to run out of storage capacity

The near-term impact of the situation in Venezuela is actually bullish for prices from a supply standpoint, as its state-owned PDVSA has reportedly shut down an unknown amount of oil-well production due to a lack of sufficient physical oil storage and still largely locked-down port operations, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Oil prices Friday also found support from unrest in Iran and Israeli threats of potential military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, which would impact supplies, said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Treasury Yields Remain Stable? (CPI, Possible SCOTUS decision, Fed concerns)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus This Week

Futures are moderately lower following the announcement of a federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell.

On Sunday night the government confirmed it had opened a criminal investigation focused on Fed Chair Powell and the construction of the Fed’s new headquarters.  The net impact of the news is to further pressure Fed independence and that is why futures are declining moderately.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on Washington, first via more details of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell and then on a potential Supreme Court IEEPA tariff decision.  Regarding the Fed, any news that further raises concerns about the loss of Fed independence will send Treasury yields higher and stocks lower.

There are also three Fed speakers today, Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (6:00 p.m. ET) and any dovish commentary from the three should help support markets (Williams is the most important speaker today).

 

Sevens Report Co-Editor Quoted in MarketWatch

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Oil prices have found support from unrest in Iran Says Tyler Richey

Oil rises 3% this week — and not just because of Venezuela

For now, oil prices have found support from unrest in Iran, and from Israeli threats of potential military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, which would impact supplies, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Venezuela continues to be in the spotlight, and the near-term impact of the situation there is actually also bullish for prices from a supply standpoint, Richey told MarketWatch.

The state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, has reportedly shut down an unknown amount of oil-well production due to a lack of sufficient physical oil storage and still largely locked-down port operations, he said.

That eventually could pressure prices lower, as Venezuela has nowhere to put the barrels still flowing out of the ground — leaving it in a very similar debacle to that which the U.S. found itself in back in April 2020, when storage hit capacity and some operators were forced to pay someone to take delivery of their oil, Richey noted. That might be an area where President Trump may want U.S. oil companies to step in with help.

That’s an amount of oil that will no longer be going to China or Russia — and the demand for those barrels hasn’t changed overnight, so they will need to be sourced elsewhere, “temporarily tightening global physical-market dynamics,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance

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The market is richly valued trading at a high multiple

Why the stock market could easily get spooked

“The market is richly valued trading at a high multiple that presents a major risk if lofty earnings expectations fail to be delivered,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said.

To Essaye’s point, the forward price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is 22 times — well above the 10-year average of 18.7 times. Stocks are almost as richly valued as when they hit a peak in early January 2022. What followed was the start of a nine-month bear market — the benchmark index plunged about 19%.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Yahoo Finance on January 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

“That leaves very little room for error” – Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

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High valuations raise the stakes for U.S. jobs data to come in just right, according to Sevens Report Research

Stocks face their first real test of 2026 with Friday’s pivotal jobs report and possible tariff ruling

On Friday, investors will receive the U.S. Labor Department’s first jobs report of 2026, which covers the month of December. There are potential risks for investors whether the data come in stronger or weaker than expected, said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

That leaves very little room for error, Essaye said. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the report to show 73,000 new jobs were created last month; that would be an improvement from just 64,000 in the initial reading for November. The unemployment rate also is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%.

“As was the case for the last two jobs reports, a ‘Goldilocks’ number that shows solidly positive jobs growth and stable unemployment is the best-case scenario for stocks, and the number that can keep this rally going,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 8th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.