Tom Essaye Quoted In Barron’s

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Markets will continue to view the situation as slowly trending towards a ceasefire, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

Stocks Inch Lower. Inflation and Retail Sales Data Are on Tap.

“As long as the U.S. does not initiate widespread attacks on Iran again, markets will continue to view the situation as slowly trending towards a ceasefire,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

MMT Levels Chart: Concentration Risks Rise Again

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Targets – S&P 500 Chart
  • “Concentration” Approaches ATHs Amid Overbought Conditions

Futures are higher amid strength in tech/semiconductors on news that NVDA’s CEO Huang would join President Trump’s trip to China along with other big tech executives, contradicting previous reports.

Meanwhile oil and bond markets steadied overnight amid no material geopolitical headlines.

Economically, the Q1 Eurozone GDP Flash met estimates at +0.8% Y/Y, down from +1.2% in Q4 while EU Industrial Production fell from -0.6% to -2.1% vs. (E) -1.8% in March underscoring a loss of momentum in global growth underway in 2026.

Looking ahead to today’s session, trader focus will be on the second important inflation print of the week with PPI (E: 0.5% m/m, 4.8% y/y) due out ahead of the bell. A cooler-than-feared release would help ease this week’s upside pressure on bond yields which would be favorable for equities today.

Additionally, there are a pair of Fed officials scheduled to speak: Collins (11:30 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:15 p.m. ET) as well as a 30-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:30 p.m. ET (the stronger the demand metrics the better for stocks).

Finally, earnings continue to be released with BABA ($1.02) and CSCO ($0.86) two notable reports to watch today, however the market will be largely focused on Trump’s trip to China and any noteworthy progress towards a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.

 

May MMT: Fundamental Improvement But What’s Next?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • May Market Multiple Table: Fundamental Improvement But What’s Next?

Futures are lower amid “risk-off/war-on” money flows (oil and yields higher) with no reported progress towards a U.S.-Iran ceasefire ahead of key U.S. inflation data today.

Economically, German CPI met estimates at 2.9% Y/Y while the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was little changed at 95.9 vs. (E) 96.1 in April, however the data is not materially moving markets with geopolitics remaining in focus.

Looking ahead to today’s session, the U.S. CPI (E: 0.6% m/m, 3.8% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) release will be one of the more important domestic data points released this week, and if the number comes in hot, a sharp rise in yields could weigh heavily on stocks.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker to watch: Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to impact bond markets and influence equity price action today.

Finally, a few earnings reports to watch today include SE ($0.70), JD ($0.43), and QBTS (-$0.10). As has been the case this earnings season, the better the quarterly results, the better in this market environment.

 

Gold Is Trying To Break Out Of This Trading Pattern Said Tyler Richey

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Gold is trying to break out of the weak, sideways trading pattern, said Tyler Richey

Gold has climbed back above a key trend line. Are more gains on the way?

Futures contracts tied to gold on Friday moved above their 21-day moving average, a short-term trend line traders use to judge whether momentum is improving, according to Tyler Richey, technical analyst and co-editor at Sevens Report. Gold futures also tested their 50-day moving average for a second straight session, with that trend often seen as a more important gauge of the market’s medium-term direction, Richey noted in written commentary shared with MarketWatch.

From a technical perspective, gold is trying to break out of the weak, sideways trading pattern that has been in place since early April, Sevens Report’s Richey said. The metal’s chart patterns aren’t yet sending any clearly bullish signals, and the near-term trend still leans weaker, he noted.

Gold would need to break more convincingly above the $4,800- to $4,900-an-ounce range to show that the bulls are really back in control, Richey added – while, on the downside, a close below $4,400 would be a warning sign.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Morningstar published on May 8th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Geopolitics Will Continue To Influence Markets | Tom Essaye

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Geopolitics will continue to influence markets, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

Dow Gives Back Gains After Topping 50,000

“Today geopolitics will continue to influence markets although at this point an agreed to ceasefire is mostly priced in, so an official announcement shouldn’t spark a material rally,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 7th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Could Go Wrong for This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Go Wrong for This Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the ceasefire finally happen?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A big week for inflation

Futures are little changed despite no incremental progress on an official U.S./Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

On Sunday night President Trump declared Iran’s response to the ceasefire terms “totally unacceptable” and oil is rallying as a result, although markets still believe a ceasefire agreement will be reached (so stocks aren’t down much).

Economically, Chinese CPI rose more than expected (1.2% vs. 0.9% y/y) reflecting the inflationary effects of higher energy prices.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics as there’s only one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05M), and it shouldn’t move markets.  Regarding the U.S. and Iran, as long as the U.S. does not initiate widespread attacks on Iran again, markets will continue to view the situation as slowly trending towards a ceasefire (and it shouldn’t be a material negative for stocks).

 

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Can a Run Hot Economy Turn into Stagflation?

Futures are modestly higher as President Trump downplayed the latest strikes on Iran.

President Trump called Thursday’s strikes on Iran a “love tap” and reiterated the ceasefire was still in place, easing markets concerns.

German Industrial Production slightly missed estimates (-3.0% vs. (E) -2.5% y/y) but that’s not moving markets.

Focus today will be on the April jobs report and expectations are as follows:  63K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 3.8% Y/Y Wage Growth.  The best case for markets remains a Goldilocks number that combines a solid jobs number modestly above estimates and stable wage growth at or below estimates.

Geopolitically, the market continues to ignore headlines about limited U.S./Iran strikes and likely will continue to do so as long as the administration says the ceasefire is still in place.

Finally, there are several Fed speakers this evening including Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee & Waller (7:30 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

Futures are little changed as markets digest Wednesday’s new highs following a generally quiet night of news.

Iran reportedly has agreed to transfer enriched uranium to a third country for storage and, if confirmed, that would be a major step towards a ceasefire agreement.

Economic data was solid overnight as German Manufacturers Orders rose more than expected (5.0% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Today geopolitics will continue to influence markets although at this point an agreed to ceasefire is mostly priced in, so an official announcement shouldn’t spark a material rally.

Away from Iran, we have Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 1.7%, 2.0%) along with several Fed speakers:  Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET), Hammack (2:05 p.m. ET) and Williams (3:30 p.m. ET).  For stocks to extend the rally, we will want to see stable economic data and Fed officials stressing that inflation is temporary (which means rate cuts remain a possibility later in the year).

 

Alpha Webinar: What Outperforms If Inflation Becomes a Problem (Again)?

Inflation is firming, yields are climbing, and the idea of rate hikes later this year is gaining traction. That combination caught markets off guard in 2022—and the result was a sharp repricing across stocks and bonds.

In this afternoon’s Alpha webinar, I will revisit that period to build a practical playbook for today’s environment. Specifically, I will break down which assets held up best, which sectors outperformed and lagged, and what strategies proved most effective when inflation and rates moved higher.

I’ll also translate those insights into actionable positioning frameworks you can use now, and clear talking points you can use with clients.

Access the full report and playbook here: Sevens Report Alpha

 

Tom Essaye Tells Barron’s What’s Really Supporting The Rally

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The two underpinnings of the rally are really earnings and economic growth, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Climb Back to Record Highs. Earnings Are in Focus.

“The two underpinnings of the rally are really earnings and economic growth, and the news continues to be good,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

Essaye argues part of the risk for the market is that both strong earnings and economic growth are tied to the artificial intelligence buildout.

“That’s essentially acting like an economic stimulus program that’s boosting growth at the same time,” he says. “That’s fine—unless it stops. And then all of a sudden you’ve got a really substantial problem on your hands.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy (And What Does It Mean for Markets?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy and What Does It Mean for Markets?
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways

Futures are sharply higher amid positive geopolitical news and more strong mega-cap tech earnings overnight with AMD reporting blowout Q1 results (shares up ~25%).

Oil futures are down 10%+ and bond yields are off 8+ bp after Axios reported a U.S.-Iran peace deal that would result in the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will primarily be on the positive geopolitical developments but “jobs week” kicks off this morning with the release of the ADP Employment Report (E: 85K) pre-market.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Musalem (9:30 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, earnings season continues with DIS ($1.49), NVO ($0.87), UBER ($0.71), IONQ ($-0.55) and APP ($3.40) all scheduled to release quarterly results today.