The AI Trade Has Been More Volatile Advises Tom Essaye

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The AI Trade: How to Navigate Today’s More Nuanced Tech Boom

The AI trade has been a more volatile influence on markets so far in 2026 – and this price action reveals the it’s starting to become more nuanced. Understanding that nuance is now important for understanding if the market can still rally without AI leadership, advises Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Prior to 2026, the AI trade was basically a rising tide that lifted all tech boats regardless of their position in the AI/tech value chain. However, that’s changed. Now, there are three distinct groups/subsectors within the AI trade and they do not all trade together.

In fact, there’s growing evidence they may trade inversely to one another (at least partially and from time to time). Right now, the AI sector in the markets can be loosely grouped into three distinct buckets:

* Receivers of Capital (ROCs). These are the AI/data center infrastructure industries such as memory, semiconductors, networking, cloud storage, computing power, etc. These sectors have surged for most of 2026 as they are “receiving” the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent by the hyperscalers to build out AI data centers.

* Spenders of Capital (SOCs). These are the hyperscalers. They are the ones spending the hundreds of billions of dollars to build and manage AI data centers and create computing and memory capacity to support the rollout of AI across the economy.

* Software/Disrupted Sectors (SaaS). These are the sectors that may be at risk of having their business models “disrupted” (which is just financial media speak for damaged). AI could potentially replace these software solutions and skills and damage these companies’ long-term prospects.

Bottom line: Take stock of tech allocations to make sure they aren’t dramatically overweight semiconductors, memory, SaaS, hyperscalers, etc. Instead, have balance across the various parts of the AI value chain, including ROCs, SOCs and SaaS. That way, as the AI trade continues to evolve, you have balanced exposure to whichever part is taking a leadership role at that time.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on July 15th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Tom Essaye – Staying Cautious With The Magnificent Seven Names Into Earnings. 

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One chart reveals why investors are concerned about earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, and other hyperscalers

“For me, it’s going to be about earnings with the Mag 7. It’s going to be about the capex number. What’s happening with free cash flow. And what is their guidance and how we turn all of this into real money sooner than later,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid.

Essaye is staying cautious about the Magnificent Seven names heading into earnings. 

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on July 15th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance

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It’s definitely been a surprise, Says Tom Essaye

June CPI sparks debate over the Fed’s next move on interest rates

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi, Senior Business Reporter Brooke DiPalma, and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye discuss the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and what it means for the outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the path forwasaysrd for interest rates.

It’s definitely been a surprise. He has definitely come out more hawkish than I think people have thought in his tone. But, you know, we also have to focus on what the Fed does and if we cut through kind of the very short statement and some of his commentary, the Fed really didn’t do and exactly what we thought they were going to do and they’re most likely going to do in July, what we think they’re going to do, which is nothing.

So certainly, I think that he is trying to use a little bit of a hawkish tone to help the market do some work for him on rates and to pressure inflation. But while the CPI print was positive, the market’s always what have you done for me lately, right?

And so now we’re looking at oil higher and even if inflation peaked in June or in May, which it probably did for the year, it still has to decline further to take rate hikes off the table for later in 2026. We’ve got to see some more continuation of these numbers in the coming months.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on July 14th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Talks About Netflix with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor

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I think that this is a very smart move by Meta, Says Tom Essaye

Why Netflix is a lot less ‘compelling’ than these 2 media stocks

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye chat with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi about why Netflix isn’t a compelling buy in the media/entertainment space.

You know, over the past couple of years, Netflix has pulled levers to increase profitability by cracking down on sharing, by introducing, you know, more aggressive advertising, that sort of thing. But in the end, they’re now kind of being driven by their show slate and as you said, they have not had a hit in a while and that’s a problem.

Now, certainly the decline makes it, you know, somewhat attractive maybe on a value basis, but I agree with Thomas, it’s a show me stock. You have to see that there’s some sort of a of a turnaround or something coming down the pike that you can get excited about.

I actually agree with you, Brian. I think if I’m going to allocate some dollars to entertainment and sort of content, I would prefer Disney.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on July 15th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Geopolitical Headlines Still Have The Potential to Blindside Traders

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Global oil prices notch back-to-back rise, remain ‘tethered to the Hormuz narrative’

Given Monday’s big rally in oil prices and Tuesday’s whipsaw intraday retreat from the highs, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, said it’s clear that geopolitical headlines still have the “potential to blindside traders and [trading] algorithms alike.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 14th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How to Talk to Clients About the Latest in Iran

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Talk to Clients About the Latest in Iran

Futures are slightly lower following disappointing tech earnings and more strikes between the U.S. and Iran.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) posted “not good enough” earnings and the stock is down –4% pre-market and that’s weighing on futures.

Focus today will stay on economic data, the Fed and earnings.  On the data front, the key reports are, in order of importance:   Retail Sales (E: -0.3%), Philly Fed (E: 3.0) and Jobless Claims (E: 220K).

Looking at the Fed, there are several speakers including Logan (12:30 p.m. ET), Schmid (1:25 p.m. ET) and  Jefferson (7:00 p.m. ET) although given the Warsh and Williams comments yesterday, these speakers will need to be very hawkish or dovish to move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues and key reports today include: UNH ($4.87), TSM ($3.87), GE ($1.86), ABT ($1.28), NFLX ($0.79), ISRG ($2.50), AA ($2.33).

 

Alpha Webinar Today at 1:30 p.m. ET: Where the AI Trade Goes Next

AI remains one of the most important investment themes in this market, but it’s no longer enough to simply be “bullish AI.” Leadership within the trade is changing, performance is becoming much more selective, and the next winners may look very different from the last winners.

In today’s Alpha Webinar (1:30 p.m. ET), we’ll explain how the AI trade is evolving, identify the groups we believe are best positioned for the next phase of the cycle, discuss the biggest risks investors should be watching, and outline what all of this means for portfolios over the coming months.

If AI is an important part of your investment process, join us this afternoon. Click here to register.

Tom Essaye and Yahoo Finance Opening Bid Panel Discuss Big Banks

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I think that this is a very smart move by Meta, Says Tom Essaye

Big banks see consumer holding up despite economic uncertainty

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi and his Opening Bid panel featuring guests: Globalt Investments senior portfolio manager Thomas Martin, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye, and Yahoo Finance Senior Business Reporter Brooke DiPalma discuss what big banks are saying about consumer resiliency.

As long as the unemployment rate stays low. That’s the key to the whole sort of economic resiliency. That and the fact that the hyperscalers are just fire hosing hundreds of billions of dollars into all corners of the economy as they build out data centers as fast as they can. But the unemployment rate is low

And people can get jobs. And as long as that’s the case, then they’re going to be generally able to keep up, relatively speaking, with this inflation, and that’s been the key. The trouble is if that unemployment rate starts to rise or that people start to have a hard time finding jobs. That’s the lynch pin. As long as the unemployment rate stays low, then people can continue to stomach very high beef prices and egg prices and all the other things we’re having to deal with.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on July 14th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Discusses IBM Earnings With Tom Essaye

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IBM set to have its worst day since 1961

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi and his Opening Bid panel featuring guests: Globalt Investments senior portfolio manager Thomas Martin, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye, and Yahoo Finance Senior Business Reporter Brooke DiPalma break down IBM’s (IBM) worse-than-expected quarterly results and what they signal for the company’s future as the stock tumbles nearly 25% in today’s session.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on July 14th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Bad IBM Earnings a Warning for Broader Tech?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Bad IBM Earnings a Warning for Broader Tech?
  • Takeaways From the “Cool” June CPI Report

Futures are tentatively higher with tech stocks leading thanks to strong quarterly earnings from AI-sensitive ASML (a major global producer of chip-making components) overnight, rekindling a sense of AI-enthusiasm while geopolitical uncertainty continues to simmer.

Economically, Chinese data was mixed as Retail Sales and Industrial Production beat, but GDP and Fixed Asset Investment missed, sending mixed signals about Chinese growth.

Looking into today’s session, the second critical inflation report of the week is due out before the open: PPI (E: -0.1% m/m, 6.2% y/y) as is the Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8.6). Investors will be looking for more signs of cooling inflation and stability in the manufacturing sector in order for stocks to continue higher today.

Additionally, there are a handful of Fed speakers today including: Williams (8:45 a.m. ET), Warsh (10:00 a.m. ET), Cook (1:00 p.m. ET), and Musalem (6:30 p.m. ET). focus will be on Warsh who will continue with his semi-annual Congressional testimony on Capitol Hill today (the less-hawkish, the better for stocks).

Finally, earnings season continues to get underway today with JNJ ($2.85), PGR ($4.58), BLK ($12.72), MS ($2.89), UAL ($1.89), and JBHT ($1.71) all due to deliver quarterly results over the course of the day. Earnings expectations are high leaving limited room for disappointment.

 

Tom Essaye chats with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi

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I think that this is a very smart move by Meta, Says Tom Essaye

Is Meta’s recent rally sustainable?

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye chats with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi about Meta’s latest stock moves and what that may signal about its sustainability.

So essentially kind of the bullish catalyst was AI deciding to lease out a lot of their processing power and compute to all this AI demand. So here we go. We’re sort of leveraging on the AI data center demand craziness even more. And don’t get me wrong, people are paying for a premium and I think that this is a very smart move by Meta.

But I don’t view this as sort of a this isn’t a sustainable turn for them. This is them just looking around saying, okay, what can we make money on and we have capacity here and let’s lease it out while demand is sky high. Shrewd move in the short term. I think it is created a decent size bump in the stock obviously, and the chart is looking better, but for me it’s going to be about earnings, it’s going to be about their CapEx number, what’s happening with free cash flow, and what is their guidance on how we turn all of this into real money sooner than later.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on July 14th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.