Why A Hawkish Fed Isn’t Necessarily Bad for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why A Hawkish Fed Isn’t Necessarily Bad for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is Economic Growth Stable? (It Needs to Be)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The “Big Three” Monthly Reports This Week (including the Jobs Report)

Futures are marginally lower after the U.S. and Iran traded attacks for the first time in weeks.

The U.S. and Iran traded strikes over the weekend in the first military exchange in weeks and oil prices are 3% higher in response, although markets still do not expect material escalation (which is why futures aren’t down more).

Economically, Chinese data was mixed as the manufacturing PMI beat estimates (49.8 vs. (E) 49.5) while non-manufacturing was slightly weak (49 vs. (E) 49.4).

Today there are no notable economic reports or Fed speak so focus will remain on geopolitics.  Markets still strongly assume there won’t be any material military escalation between Iran and the U.S. but if the headlines turn negative on that front, it’ll introduce a new headwind on the market.

 

Are Policymakers Trying To Inflate Their Way Out Of The Borrowing Conundrum

/in , /by

America’s $40 trillion national debt boosts the odds of a lost decade for stocks, market researcher warns

US government debt hit a record $40 trillion this week. Instead of raising taxes or cutting spending to pay down the debt, policymakers are likely to try to inflate their way out of the borrowing conundrum, according to Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on August 29th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Are They Going To Monetize AI | Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance

/in , /by

How is Meta going to monetize this? Tom Essaye Discusses Meta Post-Settlement

Is Meta a buy after its $16.68 billion social media case settlement?

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi talks with Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre, Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye, and Edward Jones Senior Global Investment Strategist Angelo Kourkafas about the company’s future and how it will approach monetizing AI.

I don’t think that this overhang is really the problem with Meta. I think the bigger problem is how are they going to monetize AI? To Angelo’s point earlier, we are shifting to a monetization phase. If you look at some of the other Mag 7 names, if you look at Google is sort of one of the closest competitors. Well, it’s obvious how they’re going to monetize it, right? They have Gemini, they have their chip business, they have their cloud storage business. How is Meta going to monetize this? Is it through better search revenue or better ad revenue through Insta? Is it through Facebook? Is it through leasing?

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on August 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Does “40 Trillion” Mean for Stocks?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does “40 Trillion” Mean for Stocks?

Futures are little changed following generally “fine” tech earnings overnight and as markets await Fed Chair Warsh’s speech.

Tech earnings (MRVL, WDAY) were solid but the tech sector is seeing some profit taking following Thursday’s big NVDA driven rally.

Economically, French Core HICP (their CPI) rose 2.7% vs. (E) 2.4% y/y, further solidifying ECB rate hike expectations.

Today focus will be on Fed Chair Warsh’s commentary (10:00 a.m. ET) and markets will want to hear 1) A firm commitment to get inflation back to 2% but also 2) No hints of a sustained rate hike cycle (a one and done rate hike in September won’t hurt markets).  The key to indicator to watch through the speech is the 10 year Treasury yield, if it rises during or after the speech that will be a negative for markets.

 

Is the Debasement Trade Back?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Debasement Trade Back?

Futures are moderately higher following stronger than expected tech earnings and guidance overnight.

Nvidia earnings were generally in-line but guidance was much stronger than expected (70% revenue growth next year) and that’s boosting tech and futures.

Economically, German GfK Consumer Climate was better than expected (-26.6 vs. (E) -29.2).

Today we do get one economic report, Jobless Claims (E: 208K), but the real focus will be on earnings as there are several notable reports including, in order of importance:  MRVL ($0.65), WDAY ($1.26), ULTA ($6.20), AFRM ($0.33), BBY ($1.37), DG ($2.00) and DLTR ($1.12). Strong earnings (and solid guidance) will help stocks extend this early rally.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist (July Launches)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (July Launches)
  • Chart – Home Sales Fall Amid Elevated Prices

Futures are slightly lower on weak software company guidance ahead of key inflation data and NVDA earnings today.

INTU beat earnings and revenue estimates, but forward guidance fell short of lofty expectations which is dragging software stocks and the broader tech complex lower ahead of the bell.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y) due to be released before the open. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.5%) and Q2 GDP (E: 1.5%) will be released this morning, shedding light on the health of U.S. growth and demand metrics.

Later in the day, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction (11:30 a.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Note auction (1:00 p.m. ET) and the Fed’s Barkin will speak leading into the lunch hour (11:45 a.m. ET).

Finally, focus will shift to one of the seasons most important earnings releases due after the close with NVDA ($2.09) results looming large. Other names reporting today include: KSS ($0.55), WSM ($2.05), CRM ($2.35), CRWD ($0.05), OKTA ($0.44), and HPQ ($0.66), but again NVDA will be the key report to watch.

 

Two Reasons Tech Dropped on Monday

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Tech Drop on Monday? – Two Reasons
  • Why Treasury Bond Repurchases Matter to You

Futures are higher with tech/semis leading amid fresh geopolitical optimism surrounding a NYT report that the U.S. government plans to re-staff Middle East embassies, a sign that no further military escalations with Iran are anticipated.

Economically, German data beat estimates as Q2 GDP rose 1.0% vs. (E) 0.9% and the August Ifo Survey’s headline Business Climate figure rose to 88.8 vs. (E) 87.1 which is helping fuel risk-on money flows in early trade.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are multiple economic reports to watch including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.8%), Consumer Confidence (E: 90.1), and New Home Sales (E: 620K). Additionally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak today: Barkin (8:00 a.m. & 4 p.m. ET).

Finally, while earnings season is winding down, there are still a handful of notable companies due to report (NVDA’s results tomorrow will be the big release for the week). Today, DKS ($3.78), BMO ($2.71), BNS ($1.53), GFI ($1.10), INTU ($2.12), and ZM ($1.01) will all report Q2 earnings.

For this morning’s pre-market advance to hold, investors will be looking for the decline in oil and drop in yields to hold through the open as economic data to come in “Goldilocks” and Fed speak to track “less-hawkish.” If oil and/or yields rebound, equities will face a renewed, familiar set of market headwinds.

 

Three Important Events for Yields & Markets (This Week)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Important Events for Yields & Markets (This Week)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Yields Decline (and Ease Pressure on Stocks)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Focus on the Fed (via Core PCE and Warsh’s speech)

Futures are slightly lower as investors digest rising trade tensions and await details of economic sanctions against Iran.

The U.S. applied a 50% tariff to Canadian imports and while exemptions will keep the actual impact small, this is negative for investor/market sentiment.

Details of new economic sanctions against Iran will be revealed this afternoon but unless they boost the chances of a ceasefire, they won’t impact markets.

Today there are no notable economic reports so focus will remain on geopolitics and the 2:00 p.m. ET reveal of the new economic sanctions against Iran.  However, unless the moves are viewed as realistically increasing the chances of a ceasefire, they shouldn’t move markets (and oil remains the key indicator to watch).

 

Does a Broader Rally Mean a Healthier Rally?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Does a Broader Rally Mean a Healthier Rally?

Futures are modestly higher following a generally quiet night of news and after economic data was better than expected.

UK and EU flash PMIs beat estimates (EU PMI rose to 52.1 vs. (E 51.6) while the UK PMI jumped to 52.5 vs. (E) 51.5) implying stable global growth.

Treasury yields are little changed overnight and the lack of a continued rally is helping futures lift.

Today focus will stay on economic data via the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.7) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.8) and Goldilocks numbers (headline readings that meet or slightly beat estimates and no big increases in the price indices) should keep yields stable and help stocks rebound.

 

Needed Context for Rising Yields

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Needed Context for Rising Yields
  • What Could Push Yields Lower (Four Candidates)

Futures are little changed despite higher oil prices as President Trump threatened an “economic D-Day” for Iran.

President Trump threatened dramatic economic sanctions on countries with economic ties to Iran, increasing odds of a Iranian military response and pushing oil prices higher.

Focus today will be on yields and whether they recoup Wednesday’s losses or not.  Impacting that will be, in order of importance:  Oil prices (do they rise further than the current 2% rally) and economic data (does it come in hot or not?).

Economically, important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 211K), Philly Fed (E: 25.0) and Leading Indicators (E: 0.1%) and the more “in-line” they are with expectations, the better (especially the Philly price indices).

Outside of economic data, there is one Fed speaker, Musalem (11:10 a.m. ET) and some notable retail earnings:  WMT ($0.73), BABA ($1.94), DE ($4.79), AAP ($0.81), ROST ($1.93).

 

The AI Trade Is Getting Bigger

AI may be one of the defining investment themes of the next decade. But that doesn’t mean today’s AI winners will remain tomorrow’s leaders.

In Tuesday’s issue of Sevens Report Alpha, we examined how investors can maintain meaningful long-term exposure to AI without making a concentrated bet on a handful of stocks. The report looks beyond the current chip and data center boom to the broader AI ecosystem, and how leadership could shift as the technology matures.

Most importantly, we outline three distinct approaches to gaining long-term AI exposure, including the trade-offs in diversification, concentration, flexibility, and cost.

If you believe AI is here to stay, follow the link below to read our most recent Alpha issue and see how I think investors can best participate.

Sevens Report Alpha