What the Fed Decision Means for Markets
What’s in Today’s Report:
- What the Fed Decision Means for Markets
- EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update
Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum as yesterday’s FOMC decision reinforced market expectations that rate hikes are over, while markets anticipate a dovish hike from the ECB later this morning.
There was no market moving economic data overnight.
Today is a busy day on both the economics and earnings front. The key event is the ECB Rate Decision (E: 25 bps hike) and markets will want to see if Lagarde implies the next rate hike (likely in September) will be the last one (if so, that’ll be a positive for markets).
Economically, there are several important reports today including, in order of importance: Jobless Claims (E: 235K), Durable Goods (E: 0.5%), Advanced Q2 GDP (E: 1.5% y/y) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.3%). As has been the case for much of 2023, the more “Goldilocks” the data, the better for stocks (especially cyclicals).
Finally, on the earnings front, there are numerous notable reports today including: RCL ($1.58), MCD ($2.77), LUV ($1.08), MA ($2.84), HON ($2.20), F ($0.51) and INTC (-$0.04) and investors will remain focused on margins and guidance (they want to see positive commentary on both).
