What Drove Yesterday’s Rally? (It Wasn’t AI)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Drove Yesterday’s Rally? (It Wasn’t AI)

Futures are higher and global markets rallied overnight on rising hopes for a rapid decline in inflation.

Inflation metrics on Thursday hinted at accelerating disinflation (ISM Prices Paid and Unit Labor Costs were yesterday’s bullish catalysts) and that was reinforced this morning by a decline in Korean CPI.

Chinese stocks surged overnight thanks to a Bloomberg article that raised hopes for more government stimulus.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and estimates are as follows: 180K job adds, 3.5% Unemployment Rate and 0.3% m/m & 4.4% y/y wage gains.  Given yesterday’s momentum, if the jobs report shows solid job gains and underwhelming wage growth, the rally should continue.  However, if the jobs report comes in “Too Hot” on the headline or wages, don’t be surprised if markets give back part of yesterday’s rally.