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MOVE Index: An AI Bubble Burst Indicator to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MOVE Index:  An AI Bubble Burst Indicator to Watch

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news.

There were no notable geopolitical events overnight and all three conflicts (Russia/Ukraine, Iran/U.S., Saudi/Houthis) remain status quo (tensions and fighting across all three).

Economically, data in Europe ran “hot” as German PPI and the UK Labour Market Report were stronger than expected.

Today the economic calendar is quiet with Housing Starts (1.305M) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.1%) the only notable reports (and they shouldn’t move markets).

On earnings, the season really starts to heat up today and markets will be looking for good results and optimistic guidance. Reports to watch today include: GE ($2.02), NFLX ($0.82), RTX ($1.78), ISRG ($2.13), COF ($5.45), MMM ($2.41), GM ($3.55), NOC ($7.22).

How Big of a Problem is AI for this Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Big of a Problem is AI for this Market?
  • Understanding Why Treasury Yields Dropped Last Week (Important)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Tech Earnings stabilize AI Sentiment?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Flash PMIs the Key This Week

Futures are modestly higher as tech stocks bounce from Friday’s declines while oil prices dropped 1% overnight on hopes of diplomatic progress between Russia and Ukraine.

Tech stocks are seeing an oversold bounce ahead of some important tech sector earnings reports this week (SPCX & META) but nothing materially “positive” occurred overnight.

Geopolitically, Russia has apparently proposed a Putin/Xi/Trump summit to negotiate a Ukraine deal that would ultimately produce a ceasefire.

Today there is only one notable economic report, Housing Market Index (E:31), and that shouldn’t move markets so focus will stay on geopolitics and any diplomatic progress on any of the three wars will be a positive for markets.

On earnings, tech earnings ramp up later this week.  Some reports we’re watching today include FITB ($1.09), STLD ($5.42), WRB ($1.14), CCK ($2.25).

 

More Proof of How Vulnerable This Market is to AI Disappointment

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • More Proof of How Vulnerable This Market is to AI Disappointment
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Yields Continue to Move Lower?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus This Week (CPI Wednesday)

Futures are slightly higher following mixed geopolitical news over the weekend.

Fighting between the Saudis and Houthis escalated substantially over the weekend following Houthi attacks on the Riyadh airport and the increased tensions are pushing oil prices higher (Brent up 0.75% this morning).

In Russia/Ukraine, President Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine that would push prices lower if it holds, although the market is rightly skeptical that it will.

Today there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Hammack (12:10 p.m. ET), so focus will remain on geopolitics and AI (as it’s been for the last week).

 

How Did the S&P 500 Rally Last Week Despite Higher Oil and Yields?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Did the S&P 500 Rally Last Week Despite Higher Oil and Yields? (Hint: AI).
  • Weekly Market Preview: Geopolitics Still Dominate, Will Oil and Yields Sustainably Decline?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A Busy and Important Week (Jobs Report Friday the Highlight)

Futures are moderately weaker as there was no diplomatic progress over the weekend between the U.S. and Iran and oil and Treasury yields are higher in response.

President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to return to the June ceasefire agreement and re-open the Strait of Hormuz, although there is some hope that negotiations between the two sides will continue this week.

Oil was up 4% overnight while the 10 year Treasury yield rose four basis points and those factors are pressuring futures.

Focus will remain on geopolitics and, as was the case last week, any hint of diplomatic progress should help Treasury yields and oil fall and stocks recover from these early losses (while a continued rise in yields and oil will further pressure markets).

Turning to actual data/events, there are no economic reports today but there are several Fed speakers including Bowman (8:15 a.m. ET), Cook (1:25 p.m. ET) and Barkin (1:30 p.m. ET).  If they reinforce last week’s hawkish tone from Fed speakers, look for that to put incremental upward pressure on the 10 year yield.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (September)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can AI Continue to Support This Market?
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (September)

Futures are mixed as investors monitor rising oil prices and ongoing Middle East tensions ahead of key inflation data.

Geopolitically, Iran-backed Houthis reported airstrikes in Yemen, adding to concerns about a broader Middle East conflict.

Economically, German Final CPI met estimates at 0.2% m/m in August.

Today, focus will be on PPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 5.3% y/y) ahead of Friday’s CPI report. A cooler PPI print would be welcomed by stocks, while a hot print could push yields and oil higher. Jobless Claims (E: 208K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.97M) are also due today.

Finally, the Treasury will hold 4-Week and 8-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Notable earnings include ORCL ($1.40), ADBE ($4.86), and M ($0.37).

 

Alpha Webinar: When Does Rising Oil Become a Problem?

Oil prices are moving markets again, but the real question isn’t simply whether crude goes higher—it’s when rising oil becomes a meaningful problem for inflation, bond yields and stocks.

That’s the focus of today’s Sevens Report Alpha webinar, live at 1:30 p.m. ET.

We’ll examine the Strait of Hormuz and actual oil flows, alternative routes for Persian Gulf supply, why diesel markets matter, and, importantly, the oil-price levels that could signal conditions are becoming materially worse—or beginning to improve.

The goal isn’t to predict the next move in crude. It’s to give you a practical framework for understanding when oil is a manageable market risk and when it becomes a sustained headwind for stocks and bonds.

Click here to learn more and join today’s Alpha webinar.

Needed Context for Rising Yields

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Needed Context for Rising Yields
  • What Could Push Yields Lower (Four Candidates)

Futures are little changed despite higher oil prices as President Trump threatened an “economic D-Day” for Iran.

President Trump threatened dramatic economic sanctions on countries with economic ties to Iran, increasing odds of a Iranian military response and pushing oil prices higher.

Focus today will be on yields and whether they recoup Wednesday’s losses or not.  Impacting that will be, in order of importance:  Oil prices (do they rise further than the current 2% rally) and economic data (does it come in hot or not?).

Economically, important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 211K), Philly Fed (E: 25.0) and Leading Indicators (E: 0.1%) and the more “in-line” they are with expectations, the better (especially the Philly price indices).

Outside of economic data, there is one Fed speaker, Musalem (11:10 a.m. ET) and some notable retail earnings:  WMT ($0.73), BABA ($1.94), DE ($4.79), AAP ($0.81), ROST ($1.93).

 

The AI Trade Is Getting Bigger

AI may be one of the defining investment themes of the next decade. But that doesn’t mean today’s AI winners will remain tomorrow’s leaders.

In Tuesday’s issue of Sevens Report Alpha, we examined how investors can maintain meaningful long-term exposure to AI without making a concentrated bet on a handful of stocks. The report looks beyond the current chip and data center boom to the broader AI ecosystem, and how leadership could shift as the technology matures.

Most importantly, we outline three distinct approaches to gaining long-term AI exposure, including the trade-offs in diversification, concentration, flexibility, and cost.

If you believe AI is here to stay, follow the link below to read our most recent Alpha issue and see how I think investors can best participate.

Sevens Report Alpha

 

What Caused Yesterday’s Selloff? AI or Yields?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Caused Yesterday’s Drop, AI or Yields?
  • Three Reasons Yields Are Rising Right Now

Futures are flat as traders digest this week’s pullback in tech stocks amid stubbornly elevated oil prices and subsequently buoyant bond yields.

Economically, U.K. Core CPI held steady at 2.6% vs. (E) 2.5% y/y while the EU’s Core CPI equivalent (Core HICP) was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in July, meeting estimates; neither release suggested inflation is beginning to slow materially which is keeping yields elevated today.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today, however the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move the bond market, and a pullback in yields would be welcomed by equities today, potentially setting up a relief rally in the broader market.

Later in the afternoon, the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released (2:00 p.m. ET) and traders will be looking for any fresh insight as to the Fed’s most likely policy rate path in H2’26; the more dovish/accommodating, the better for equities.

Finally, there are a handful of late-season earnings releases due to be released today including ADI ($3.33), TGT ($2.30), TJX ($1.18), LOW ($4.22), EL ($0.32), and BULL ($0.03). And as has been the case, the stronger the results and guidance, the better for the market.

 

Tom Essaye On Why Cloud Capacity Is The Next Critical Bottleneck In AI Infrastructure

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Why Google and Amazon rank top among Cloud hyperscalers for AI

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye explains why cloud capacity is the next critical bottleneck in AI infrastructure and ranks Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT) based on their cloud revenue opportunities.

So, I do like the hyperscalers, but I like the ones with the best cloud businesses. So really it’s not even so much that I love the hyperscalers, it’s that I love cloud right now because I think the cloud capacity is could be number uh number for first of all, the next bottleneck that has to be resolved in this AI day to build out after semiconductors and memory. And also it it provides an opportunity to generate revenue right now. So if I had to rank them in order, it would probably be Amazon, or excuse me, Google, Amazon and then Microsoft. The reason Microsoft is last is because I do think they have some risk on their office suite given, you know, some of the the AI software purge that we’re seeing. Uh but I think those three are attractive, mainly because of their cloud business, it’s providing revenue now.

Essaye is staying cautious about the Magnificent Seven names heading into earnings. 

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on August 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

Futures are slightly higher despite post earnings selling in AI linked tech stocks, as lower oil boosts futures.

CSCO earnings weren’t as good as hoped for and the stock is down 6% pre-market, although it’s not weighing on the rest of the market.

There was no discernable progress on U.S./Iran peace talks but oil dropped 1% overnight on falling fears of escalation.

Today focus will remain on inflation and the economy via PPI  (E: 0.2% m/m, 4.9% y/y) and Jobless Claims (E: 203K).  The lower PPI and the closer jobless claims are to 200k, the better for markets (it’d be a Goldilocks reading). We also have one Fed speaker today, Barkin (8:40 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, tech results continue and today’s key report is AMAT ($3.38).

 

Evolution of the AI Trade: ROCs, SOCs and SaaS

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Evolution of the AI Trade: ROCs, SOCs and SaaS

Futures are flat and bonds are steady despite a continued rise in oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran with focus on control of Hormuz.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey firmed to 97.4 vs. (E) 95.6 in June.

Today is a busy and important day of data, Fed speak and earnings.

The key economic report today is CPI and expectations are as follows: -0.1% m/m, 3.8% y/y, Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y).  Put simply, an in-line to better than expected number should pressure yields and help stocks while a “hot” number will push the 10-year yield towards a new YTD high (and pressure stocks).

On the Fed front, the key event is Chair Warsh (10:00 a.m. ET) but there are several other speakers including Barr (12:40 p.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET), Cook (1:30 p.m. ET) and Bowman (2:55 p.m. ET).  The less concerned they are about inflation, the better (especially Warsh).

Finally, on earnings, the banks kick off the Q2 reporting season and key reports today include: JPM ($5.52), GS ($14.47), BAC ($1.13), C ($2.72), WFC ($1.73).