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What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Report Preview
- An Excellent Explanation of the Economic Cycle
- Oil Update (How Far Could It Fall?)
Futures are little changed despite hawkish commentary from the BOJ and more underwhelming economic data.
BOJ commentary overnight was hawkish and markets now expect a rate hike at the December meeting. And that expectation is pushing global yields slightly higher.
European economic data was again soft as German Industrial Production declined –0.4% vs. (E) 0.5%. This adds to the recent string of soft EU economic reports.
Today focus will remain on economic data and specifically weekly Jobless Claims (E: 222K) and Continuing Claims (1.91 million). These numbers have been drifting higher lately and Continuing Claims just hit a two-year high. If we see further upside in these readings today that will add to the growing list of readings that implies the economy is losing momentum and while that may not cause a drop in stocks today, a slowing economy will likely become a headwind in early 2024.
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