Bull vs. Bear Case (Part 1 of 3)
Bull vs. Bear Case (Part 1 of 3): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- The Bull vs. Bear Case – What the Bulls Think Will Happen
Futures are flat with the 10-Yr yield hovering near 4.40% as traders await a slew of Fed speak and fresh economic data.
Economic data overnight was mildly disappointing. As Australian Retail Sales, the German GfK Consumer Climate report and Eurozone M3 Money Supply all missed estimates.
Looking into the U.S. session, there are a few second-tiered economic reports to watch today: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.7%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.4%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 101.5), but none are likely to move markets ahead of the key inflation data due out Thursday.
Additionally, there are several Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Goolsbee, Waller, Bowman, and Barr. If any of them strike a materially hawkish tone or stray from the “soft landing” outlook narrative, it could weigh on stocks today.
Finally, there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. If the results are weak and yields move higher, expect that to be a headwind for equities today. Conversely, a strong auction could push rates to new lows and power stocks higher into the end of the month.
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