Hard Landing vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard

What Makes It Better & What Makes It Worse

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Makes It Better & What Makes It Worse

U.S. equity futures are stabilizing and market volatility is easing modestly thanks to some positive tariff news overnight.

On the trade war front, optimism about tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Japan sent the Nikkei higher by 6%+ while Chinese shares rallied after the PBOC pledged stimulus efforts to shore up financial markets amid recent volatility.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to a new post-election low of 97.4 vs. (E) 98.9 in March, the latest report to highlight deteriorating business confidence (dovish for Fed policy outlook).

There are no notable economic reports today however the Treasury will hold a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. A strong auction will reiterate last week’s dovish shift in Fed policy outlook amid growing economic uncertainty and add to prospects that a sustainable relief rally is taking shape.

Finally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak today: Daly (2:00 p.m. ET) and investors will be looking for more encouraging commentary about the outlook for the economy (but without taking a hawkish tone).

 

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