Posts

Two Markets Down, Three to Go?, May 18, 2017

/in /by

The Sevens Report is everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7:00am, in 7 minutes or less. You can start your free two-week trial today and see how much smarter the Sevens Report makes you.

The most important trading across markets Wednesday was not in the stock market, it was in the bond market… and the signals sent there were not good. Both the absolute level of bond yields, and the shape of the yield curve, deteriorated materially… and this is a concern that should not be ignored.

First, the 10-year Treasury yield imploded, falling 11 basis points to close at 2.22%, the lowest in three weeks and now just above the 2017 low of 2.17%.

Second, and potentially more importantly, the 10’s—2’s Treasury yield curve also flattened materially, as the spread fell from 1.04% to 0.92%.

sevens report - trumponomics

This is especially important, because the 10’s—2’s yield spread has now retraced the entire post-election steepening, and the curve is more flat than it was pre-Trump presidency. That is a very bad sign for banks, and since banks must lead a market higher in a reflation expansion, that is a bad sign for the entire stock market.

The 10’s—2’s spread has more than retraced the entire post-election move, as has the US Dollar Index (two down).

The 10-year yield is threatening to fall to fresh lows for the year. Yet, the BKX (Bank Index) remains nearly 20% above the pre-election close, and the S&P 500 still trades almost 10% above its pre-election close.

So, are we now looking at a situation where we are two down, three to go?

This situation cannot exist in perpetuity, and the collapse in yields yesterday is a warning sign that should not be ignored.

It’s not definitive yet, and one bad day doesn’t break a trend, but the price action in the bond market is becoming outright worrisome. And, I must continue to stress (as I’ve been doing since mid-March) that the bond market is the leading indicator for stocks. If the 10-year yield breaks below 2.17%, that will add to that warning. At that point, I will consider becoming more defensive in our portfolios.

Again, for context, the entire 2017 stock market rally is based on a expectation of an economic reflationary expansion. But, that expansion likely can’t occur unless the pro-growth policies from Washington actually materialize, and that probability is decreasing daily.

So while stocks have held up, reflationary-sensitive as-sets have negatively reacted (banks, bonds and cyclicals). These sectors must lead a reflationary bull market, yet all of them are breaking down or are in danger of breaking down. If they go, then the broad market isn’t far behind.

Again, I’m not saying get materially defensive yet, as one bad day doesn’t invalidate the market’s resilience. But caution signs are growing on this market, and I do not want anyone blindsided.

The Sevens Report is the daily market cheat sheet our subscribers use to keep up on markets, seize opportunities, avoid risks and get more assets. Start your free two-week trial today.

Trumponomics Update, May 17, 2017

/in /by

Trump, Trumponomics, politicsJoin hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James and more… see if The Sevens Report is right for you.

Politics remains a deafening influence on the markets in 2017, but amidst the ongoing circus (which again got bigger overnight) I wanted to step back and take a look at the current state of the Trumpenomics agenda, revise current markets expectations, and re-examine what will create positive or negative political surprises for stocks over the coming months and quarters.

For specific ETF winners and losers depending on how these events resolve themselves in the coming months, subscribe to the free two-week trial of the Sevens Report.

Finally, I want to provide some independent context to the recent political headlines. First, they are net negative because they are causing some Republicans to start to distance themselves from Trump, and that reduces the chances of tax cuts. Second, if there was some crime committed (obstruction of justice, etc.) that is clearly a bearish gamechanger—but we are not there yet. Third, impeachment claims are currently overblown. It’s a Republican Congress and Congress must decide impeachment. Every Republican, at this point, has a better chance of getting re-elected if they pass tax cuts rather than dump Trump, and we can always count on politicians to focus on their re-employment. Bottom line, these never ending headlines are a headwind on stocks, but they are not a bearish gamechanger, yet.

Trumponomics Pillar 1: Tax Cuts

What Was Expected By Markets: An agreement in principle by the August Congressional recess to cut corporate taxes to the low-20% range, and include a one time, 10% repatriation tax holiday for foreign profits.

Reality: Nothing. There has been little-to-no progress on the tax issue, and major sticking points remain between Republicans, including border adjustments and removing interest deductibility for corporations.

Market Impact: So far, stocks have generally weathered the ineptitude here because there is still the broad expectation that there will be corporate tax reform before the mid-terms in 2018 (people are now pointing to Q1 2018).

Current Expectation: A small corporate tax cut into the high-20% range in place by Q1 2018, and some foreign profit tax repatriation holiday (around 10% tax rate).

Bullish If: Withheld for subscribers. Sign up for your free trial today.

Bearish If: Withheld for subscribers. Sign up for your free trial today.

Trumponomics Pillar 2: Deregulation (Especially Obamacare)

What Was Expected: Repeal and replacement of Obamacare in the first 100 days; massive deregulation via executive order, especially regarding environmental regulations.

Reality: Virtually nothing. While the House passed an Obamacare repeal/replace, there is no credible path for the legislation to make it out of the Senate. Meanwhile, there has been progress on reducing one-off regulations, but it’s not the type of large-scale deregulation that will ignite economic growth.

Market Impact: Healthcare has outperformed on the reduction of political risk (XLV, IHF, IBB). Overall, however, no macro impact.

Current Expectation: Not much. The healthcare bill is in limbo, and there’s no expectation of a Obamacare repeal/replace anytime soon. Meanwhile, Dodd-Frank banking regulations remain largely in place and it’s unlikely we’ll see a large overhaul of that legislation, either (that’s anecdotally negative for regional banks as they bear an outsized compliance burden compared to money center banks).

Bullish If: Withheld for subscribers. Sign up for your free trial today.

Bearish If: Withheld for subscribers. Sign up for your free trial today.

Trumponomics Pillar 3: Infrastructure Spending

What Was Expected: $1 trillion over a 10-year period (this was always an exaggeration, but a lot was potentially expected).

Reality: Virtually nothing. Infrastructure spending has been soundly buried between the healthcare drama, tax cut bickering, and the constant media battles emanating from the White House.

Market Impact: Infrastructure stocks that rallied hard following the election have lagged so far in 2017, but this hasn’t had any macro impact on markets.

Current Expectation: Nothing. Some hope that we will see a bipartisan infrastructure bill by Q2 2018, but it’s so buried by everything else right now that’s not very likely.

Bullish If: Withheld for subscribers. Sign up for your free trial today.

Bearish If: Withheld for subscribers. Sign up for your free trial today.

Bottom Line

Earnings and economics have helped to offset any Trumponomics disappointment as Q1 earnings were strong, and $138 2018 S&P 500 EPS is supporting stocks in the face of repeated Washington failures. Meanwhile, economic data has been “fine” on an absolute basis despite the slight loss of momentum recently.

Point being, markets have been lucky that earnings and economics have provided a shock absorber for the policy disappointment; but considerable risks remain should no further policy progress occur in the coming months and quarters, and given the seemingly unending scandalous headlines emanating from the White House, the probability of nothing happening is rising.

If we do not see real political progress by the end of ’17 or ’18, then its unlikely that economic growth will be able to hold up as the uncertainty surrounding these policies will begin to act as a headwind.

Get the simple talking points you need to strengthen your client relationships. Get your free trial today. 

How Does Trump’s Approval Rating Impact The Stock Market? March 8, 2017

/in /by

Leading Indicator Update: Showing Signs of Fatigue

An excerpt from today’s Sevens Report… Skip the jargon, arcane details and drab statistics, and get the simple analysis that will improve your performance.

At the start of the year, I said that beyond the normal economic data and fund flow data, we’ll be watching two other specific leading indicators:

  • Trump’s approval rating, and the
  • Semiconductor Index.

As a refresher, we watch Trump’s approval rating because it is an imperfect, but still effective, measure of political capital.

Earlier this year, we said that if his approval rating dips in the weeks and months following Inauguration Day, that won’t be a positive sign for corporate tax cuts (i.e. it will be stock negative). Conversely, if his approval ratings rise following his inauguration, the chances of tax reform will rise (i.e. it will be stock positive).

Turning to the Semiconductor Index (see chart on Pg. 1), we view semiconductors as a destination for incremental capital that comes off the sidelines or out of bonds.

It’s our proxy for money flows, or “chasing” into the US markets.

That reasoning here is based on watching the price action in semis and observing that they handily outperformed post election (implying they were a destination for capital coming off the sidelines), and we continue to believe that is the case.

LI #1: Trump’s Approval Rating Updated. The outlook here hasn’t been that positive, and the movement in the approval rating anecdotally confirms our opinion that the market remains too optimistic regarding corporate tax cuts in 2017.

Why is the president’s approval rating a leading indicator?

From a broad standpoint, Trump’s approve/disapprove gap has gotten worse since the inauguration, and we think that represents a slight erosion of political capital.

Last week, we saw a slight bounce following his speech to Congress, but the numbers look to be rolling over again.

I am particularly focused on his raw approval rating numbers (as opposed to just the spread between approve/disapprove). So, while the spread between approve/disapprove has gotten worse, the reason this leading indicator isn’t flashing negative for me is because Trump’s raw approval rating is still about the same as it’s been since the inauguration (about 44%).

However, if that raw number were to drop below 40%, I would view that as a material negative for pro-growth policies… and a potential negative for stocks.

LI #2: Semiconductor Index Updated. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, our loose proxy for incremental money flows out of bonds/other assets and into stocks, has until recently confirmed the 2017 rally.

The SOX rallied 9% from the first of the year till February 22, at which point the index stalled, and it’s traded side-way for nearly two weeks.

Going forward, support at 955.11 now is an important level to watch, as a break of that level would constitute a “lower low” on the charts.

Below that, support at the 20-day moving average at 947.25 has supported this index three times over the past few months. So, that also will be an important level to watch.

Bottom Line

Neither of these leading indicators have sent a non-confirmation signal of the rally at this point. Yet after confirming the rally earlier this year, both of these leading indicators are starting to wobble.

Again, we’ll be watching 40 in Trump’s approval rating and 955 and 947 in the SOX. If those levels are broken that will likely prompt us to become more defensive near term for stocks.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James and more… see if The Sevens Report is right for you.

Senate Math Primer. March 7, 2017

/in /by

Senate Math Primer from the Sevens Report: One of the easiest ways to cut through the seemingly unending amount of political noise in the markets is to focus on the fact that there are only two important questions that need to be answered.

  1. Will Republicans agree on border adjustments and a corporate tax cut?
  2. Can that plan get approved in the Senate?
Senate in Session

Republicans have a simple 52 to 48 majority—but that’s not really that powerful.

We’ve already covered the first question from multiple angles in the full subscriber edition of the Sevens Report, but I think the second question is just as important.

In fact, part of the reason I’m covering this is because I get the sense that a lot of people think that once a plan has general Republican support it will automatically become law, because Republicans “control” the House, Senate and the presidency.

While the first and the last are truly under control from Republican leadership, the Senate is anything but.

Looking at the math, as mentioned yesterday, Republicans have a simple 52 to 48 majority—but that’s not really that powerful.

First, it’s well short of a filibuster-proof 60-person majority, and there’s zero chance eight Democrats will break with Republicans on Obamacare or corporate tax cuts.

That’s why both those issues have to be passed via a budget process called “reconciliation.” Reconciliation only requires a simple majority, so 52 to 48 would work.

But, it gets more complicated than that.

First, to say Republicans have a hard 52 votes on any issue is an overstatement. Senator Susan Collins of Maine (technically a Republican) acts much more like an independent. The same can be said for Alaska Senator Murkowski (she’s taking a hard line against supporting an Obamacare repeal that rolls back Medicaid expansion).

Then, there are Senators McCain and Graham. Both are solid Republican votes, but I think it’s fair to say they despise President Trump for multiple reasons. So while it’s unlikely they’d derail passage of Obamacare repeal/replace or tax cuts, they are going to be tough “gets.”

Finally, Rand Paul is more Libertarian than Republican, and he (and others) will have a hard line approach to any tax cuts that might increase the deficit.

Bottom line, while Republicans “control” the legislative and executive branches of government, the Senate is still a bottleneck in the legislative process, and getting Obamacare repeal/replace through the Senate by Memorial Day will be a tough task—never mind corporate tax reform by the August recess (remember, there aren’t even hearings scheduled for the Supreme Court nominee yet).

Again, I’m not trying to throw cold water on this rally, or the optimism fueling it. I’m just trying to keep everyone focused on facts, and the outlook for passage of major reforms through the Senate remains dicey at best.

Cut through the noise and understand what’s truly driving markets, as this new political and economic reality evolves. The Sevens Report is the daily market cheat sheet our subscribers use to keep up on markets, seize opportunities, avoid risks and get more assets. Sign up for your 2-week free trial at 7sReport.com.

Real Economics vs. Trump’s Washington Buzz

/in /by

As has been the case since the election, the political noise in the market is deafening.

But cutting through that noise, the reality is this: The gap between market expectations from Washington and the current reality has grown significantly in the month since Trump’s inauguration, and it is not an understatement to say that political disappointment risk is now very high.

Is Trump News Affecting Markets?

Specifically, Trump noise aside, all signs point to massive fractures in the Republican Party over the repeal/replace of Obamacare, and over border adjustments (the key to any material corporate tax reform).

To boot, the constant drama and infighting is draining Trump’s political capital even before we get close to deals on Obamacare and taxes. Specifically, the immigration ban battle, the Gen. Flynn drama, and the Puzder (the Labor Secretary nominee) withdrawal (where a full 12 Republican Senators would have voted against him) all are combining to reduce the likelihood of anything substantial on taxes.

Bottom line, the only thing politically that really matters to markets is tax cuts. But given the fractures appearing on Obamacare and border adjustments, the likelihood of material, pro-growth policy is fading… and fast.

Last week, Trump again touted fantastic things coming up, and Ryan promised an Obamacare repeal/replace by the end of February. Yet neither actually mean any progress (for that we need Republican support for bills in the Senate, and that’s lacking).

Going forward, a key date emerging on the calendar is February 28, when Trump is due to give an address before Congress (first year Presidents give this address instead of a State of the Union).

If there is no material progress on a compromise on a Obamacare repeal/replace or border adjustments within corporate tax reform by this address, then the political reality could begin to weigh on markets as investors begin to lose hope of pro-growth reforms in 2017.

Cut through the noise and understand what’s truly driving markets, as this new political and economic reality evolves with the Sevens Report. Get a free two-week trial: www.7sReport.com.

Economics: This Week and Last Week. February 21, 2017

/in /by

An excerpt from today’s Sevens Report. Subscribe now to get the full report in your inbox before 7am each morning.

Both economic growth and inflation accelerated according to last week’s data, and while the former continues to help support stocks despite a darkening outlook from Washington, the latter also is increasing the likelihood of a more hawkish-than-expected Fed in 2017, and a resumption of the uptrend in interest rates. For now, though, the benefit of the former is outweighing the risk of the latter.

If, however, we do not see any dip in the data between now and early May, I do expect the Fed to hike rates at that May meeting, which would be a marginal hawkish surprise. To boot, if we get a strong Jobs report (out Friday, March 3), then a March rate hike two weeks later isn’t out of the question. Point being, upward pressure is building on interest rates again.

Last Week

Both economic growth and inflation accelerated according to last week’s data.

Looking at last week’s data, it was almost universally strong. Retail Sales, which was the key number last week, handily beat expectations as the headline rose 0.4% vs. (E) 0.1% while the more important “Control” retail sales (which is the best measure of discretionary consumer spending) rose 0.4% vs. (E) 0.3%. Additionally, there were positive revisions to the December data, and clearly the US consumer continues to spend (which is more directly positive for the credit card companies).

Additionally, the first look at February manufacturing data was very strong. Empire Manufacturing beat estimates, rising to 18.7 vs. (E) 7.5, a 2-1/2 year high. However, it was outdone by Philly Fed, which surged to 43.3 vs. (E) 19.3, the highest reading since 1983! Both regional manufacturing surveys are volatile, but clearly they show an uptick in activity, which everyone now expects to be reflected in the national flash PMI.

Even housing data was decent as Housing Starts beat estimates on the headline, while the more important single family starts (the better gauge of the residential real estate market) rose 1.9%. Single family permits, a leading indicator for single family starts, did dip by 2.7%, but even so the important takeaway from this data is that so far, higher interest rates don’t appear to be negatively impacting the residential housing market, and a stable housing market is a key, but underappreciated, ingredient to economic acceleration.

Finally, looking at the Fed, Yellen’s commentary was marginally hawkish, as she was upbeat on the economy, basically saying the nation had achieved full employment and was closing on 2% inflation, and reiterated that a rate hike should be considered at upcoming meetings. None of her comments were new, but the reiteration of them reminds us that the Fed is in a hiking cycle, and the risk is for more hikes… not less.

This Week

The big number this week is the February global flash manufacturing PMI, out Tuesday. With last week’s strong Empire and Philly Surveys, expectations will be pretty elevated for the flash manufacturing PMI, so there is some risk of mild disappointment. On the flip side, if this number is very strong (like Empire and Philly) you will likely see a hawkish reaction out of the markets (dollar/bond yields up) and the expectation for a rate hike before June increases. That, by itself, shouldn’t cause a pullback in stocks, but upward pressure will build on interest rates.

Outside of the flash manufacturing PMIs, the FOMC minutes from the January meeting will be released Wednesday, and investors will parse the comments for any clues as to the likelihood of a March increase. Yet given the amount of political/fiscal uncertainty, and considering the FOMC meeting was before the strong January jobs report and recent acceleration in data, I’d be surprised if the minutes are very hawkish (although given they are dated, I don’t think that not-dovish minutes reduces the chances of a May or even March hike).

Bottom line, the focus will be on the flash manufacturing PMIs, and a good number this week will be supportive for stocks.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James and more… see if the Sevens Report is right for you.

What impact are Trump’s headlines having on markets?

/in /by

Trump makes a lot of headlines, but what actually impacts the market?

After impacting the markets with his comment about a forthcoming “phenomenal” tax plan, the markets have been surprisingly unmoved by any of the headlines coming in from Washington D.C.

This week, we’ve seen stocks focusing on the good economic data (retail sales, Empire Manufacturing) and ignoring the political drama (Trump’s Labor Secretary nominee, Andrew Puzder, withdrew yesterday). Earlier this week, the market also remained steady after the news of National Security Administration Michael Flynn’s resignation.

What might Trump do to impact the market? After campaigning with somewhat hostile trade rhetoric, we’ve the realities of global trade soften his tone a bit. For example, he embraced the “One China” policy of governance over Taiwan. Similarly, so far Trump has resisted instructing the Treasury Department to label China a “currency manipulator” in its semi-annual currency report, due out in late March/early April. That would obviously be bad for stocks.

Find out first and keep your clients and prospects in the know. Sign up for your free trial of the Sevens Report and you’ll get all the market analysis in your inbox by 7am each morning. www.7sReport.com

 

How Big a Risk is a Trade or Military Dispute? February 16, 2017

/in /by

An excerpt from the Sevens Report. Sign up for a two-week free trial of the full report at www.7sReport.com.

Earlier this week I began profiling non-political risks to explore when making decisions for your clients and talking with prospects. Here’s number three:

Non-Political Risk #3: Surprise Trade or Military Dispute

Surprisingly, and potentially dangerously, the market has fully embraced Trump’s pro-growth “big three” of tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and deregulation while totally ignoring the hostile trade (and to a lesser degree) military rhetoric—and that selective focus has helped fuel this rally in stocks.

How big a risk is a trade conflict with China?

Part of the reason investors have somewhat ignored the rhetoric is because they assumed that once Trump got into power, the realities of global trade would soften his tone. To a point, that has happened. Last week, Trump embraced the “One China” policy of governance over Taiwan. And, this past weekend visit with Japanese PM Abe came and went with no explicit mention of currency manipulation or unfair trade. But, while those are positives it’d be foolish to think there isn’t a real risk of a trade dispute/war with China.

Originally, the fear was that Trump would instruct the Treasury Department to label China a “currency manipulator” in its semi-annual currency report, due out in late March/early April. That would likely ignite some sort of a trade war as it would place automatic tariffs on Chinese goods. Obviously, that wouldn’t be good for stocks.

Trump appears to have backed away from such a direct confrontation, but as a WSJ article detailed, the administration is looking for a less “in your face” way to punish China for its trade practices (you can read the article if you’re really interested) but basically the strategy is to label currency manipulation an “unfair subsidy,” not just by the Chinese, but by every country. If that’s done, then individual US companies can lobby the Commerce Department to impose du-ties on competitive goods from countries they believe use currency manipulation. It’s basically a less-direct way to put duties/tariffs on Chinese goods.

Here’s the problem: Other countries can retaliate and do the same thing to the US, and cite the Fed’s ultra-low rates as manipulating the US dollar lower.

This will obviously be a fluid situation, but with Peter Navarro as the head of the National Trade Council (remember he wrote the book, Death by China) it’s un-likely that we won’t at least have a trade scare this year with China.

Looking militarily, the only real area of concern right now (well, there are multiple areas of concern, but the most pressing one) is the growing conflict between the US and China regarding their bases in the South China Sea. Trump advisor Bannon is particularly focused on this issue, and military officials have flat-out said that China won’t be allowed to operate a functioning naval or air base on these manufactured islands. Again, this is a low-probability event, but it remains a possibility.

Probability of a disruptive trade war? <30%. While the possibility is there, I’d expect marginal moves to try and correct trade imbalances with China, not all out tariffs or import duties (although I’m sure they will be publicly threatened, which will be negative for sentiment).

“Leading Indicators” and, “How do we position if it happens?” sections are restricted to subscribers.

Take advantage of the limited time special offer—if you subscribe to the Sevens Report today, and after the first two weeks you are not completely satisfied, we will refund your first quarterly payment, in full, no questions asked.

Copyright 2017, Kinsale Trading LLC. All Rights Reserved. www.sevensreport.com

Stock Market Update: Trumponomics

/in /by

Wednesday was volatile as Trump’s press conference induced a mid-day sell off, but stocks recovered after lunch to finish with moderate gains.  The S&P 500 rose 0.28%.

The markets are now experiencing “Trumponomics.”  The Sevens Report, a daily macro-economic report for financial advisors, just released it’s “Stock Market Update:  Investors Guide to Trumponomics.”

Stock Market Update

stock market updateStocks were basically flat throughout the morning yesterday in what was very quiet trading.  Trump really dominated the narrative all day yesterday as the Russian “dossier” story weighed on sentiment slightly pre-open on Wednesday, and that was made worse by the fact that there was no economic data or corporate news to distract from the Trump story.

So, stocks opened basically flat and chopped sideways ahead of the Trump press conference at 11 a.m..

As we said earlier this week, this event had the potential to move markets and, at least temporarily, it did not disappoint.

The press conference was full of figurative fireworks but the fact that there was absolutely no mention of fiscal stimulus or tax cuts hit stocks (as we cautioned it might in our preview on Wednesday). First, Trump’s left field comment about reducing the cost of drug prices sent biotechs into mini free-fall, and that took healthcare lower which weighed on the whole market.  Then, after a brief rebound, stocks rolled over again after Trump failed to imply a timeline for tax cuts of fiscal stimulus.

But, the market is giving Trump and the Republicans the benefit of the doubt and his omissions weren’t damming yesterday (yet).  So, stocks rebounded after lunch and rallied throughout the final two hours of trading to close basically at the higher of the day.  Oil, which accelerate higher during the afternoon, also helped stocks rally, as oil remains an important short term influence over stocks.

Stock Market Update: Trading Color

Trump dominated sector trading as well yesterday as this comments about “bidding” for drug prices hit biotech stocks (NBI dropped nearly 3%) and healthcare more broadly (XLV fell 1%).   XLV the only SPDR we track to finish negative yesterday.

But, it wasn’t just the biotech comments as the quasi disappointing press conference did cause some defensive outperformance as utilities rose 1%. Besides energy (XLE), which was up on the oil rally, utilities were the best performing SPDR in the markets yesterday.

Continuing that cautious theme, cyclical sectors also rose (again every SPDR except healthcare was higher yesterday) but banks, tech and industrials were up just .5%., so clearly there was no real, cyclical outperformance.

So, Trump’s comments (or lack thereof regarding tax cuts of stimulus) took some wind out of the cyclical led “Trump Trade” sails yesterday.

Bottom Line

Yesterday’s price action after the press conference gave us some important insight into how we can expect stocks to trade over the next few weeks:

The fact that there was no mention of tax cuts, infrastructure spending or de-regulation by Trump weighed on stocks temporarily Wednesday, and bigger picture that lack of specifics does threatens to undermine the post Election rally.

But, while stocks are lower this morning mostly because of that disappointment, yesterday’s press conference likely won’t cause a material unwind of the “Trump Trade” because the market is still willing to give Trump/Republicans the benefit of the doubt on a lack of policy specifics.  So, this morning’s dip aside, don’t expect lack of policy clarity alone to cause a pullback near term (it’ll take something additional like Chinese currency volatility, bad economic data, etc.).

But, beyond the short term (and I mean the next 2-4 weeks) the biggest risk to stocks is the gap between market expectations of tax cuts and pro-growth policies, and the potential political reality.  And, yesterday’s press conference did nothing to reduce that risk.

As I said in the Trump Press Conference Preview, if the market does not get some evidence that corporate tax cuts are progressing and forthcoming by the middle of Q1, that will begin to weigh on stocks.

In the mean time, the benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls but the S&P 500 is still at a valuation ceiling at 18X forward earnings, and it’s going to take evidence of looming pro-growth policies to help stocks punch materially through recent highs.

Thoughts on Healthcare

Trump’s surprise comments on bidding for drug prices caught markets by surprise and hit healthcare and biotech stocks yesterday, but at this point that general rhetoric isn’t enough to make me abandon my long position.

That may change once we get some actual policy specifics but for now that comments seemed more like populist rhetoric than anything actually concrete, and I imagine the complicated Obamacare repeal will likely dominate any healthcare related policy in the first half of 2017.  Put another way, they will have enough to worry about ensuring that coverage continues for Obamacare recipients, never mind changing national drug pricing structures to the detriment of biotech firms.