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Nvidia, AMD Deal with Trump Administration Eases AI Investor Fears: Tom Essaye

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Chip sales to China continue under new revenue-sharing agreement

Nvidia & AMD investors can put China chip tariff risks ‘to bed’

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye and Allspring Global’s John Campbell discussed reports that Nvidia and AMD reached a deal with the Trump administration to resume selling chips in China, with 15% of the revenue going to the U.S. government.

Essaye said the agreement signals that the companies are “ready to play ball” with policymakers to protect growth in the AI sector. “Eighty-five percent is a lot more than zero,” he noted, calling the resolution a relief for AI-focused investors now that a major uncertainty has been removed.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Interviewed: Bitcoin Still Speculative but Poised for Long-Term Gains

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Institutional adoption and policy push could fuel higher prices

Is it time to view bitcoin as a stock?

John Campbell of Allspring Global Investments and Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye discussed bitcoin’s evolving role in markets, with Essaye noting that while the cryptocurrency remains somewhat speculative in the short term, institutional adoption is accelerating.

Essaye highlighted growing integration of bitcoin into traditional finance and banking, alongside policy support from the administration, as bullish long-term drivers. “Is it short-term a little frothy? Sure,” he said, “but longer term there are some fundamental changes here that I think will send it much higher.”

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: AI Market Maturing as Winners Like Palantir Pull Ahead

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Execution separates outperformers from laggards in evolving AI trade

C3.ai stock nosedives on preliminary earnings: Where the AI trade stands

Allspring Global Investments’ John Campbell, Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, and Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma discussed the divergence among AI stocks, highlighting Palantir’s strong earnings and raised guidance as a sign of successful execution in the sector.

Essaye noted that while some AI names continue to struggle, companies delivering results are commanding lofty valuations — with Palantir’s forward P/E ratio exceeding 500 — reflecting investor willingness to reward performance in the maturing AI market.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

SPX: Three Key Market Drivers Right Now Says Essaye

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Economic growth overtakes tariffs as top market influence

SPX: Today’s Three Most Important Stock Market Drivers

Stocks rallied Monday after last week’s sharp pullback, but Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report says fundamentals have slightly worsened since July.

Economic growth is now the primary driver of markets, with recession fears posing sharp downside risk regardless of Fed rate cuts. Fed policy ranks second, as investors look for confirmation of a likely September cut. Tariffs, once the dominant factor, now rank third, with rates expected to settle between 15%-20%, raising stagflation risks but adding some trade stability.

Also, click here to view the full article published in the MoneyShow on August 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye warns the AI-stock index is flashing bubble risk

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The AI trade could be inflating a late-cycle stock market bubble, warns Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

‘This bull market in equities has a serious problem’: Strategist warns a crucial AI-stock index is sending a potential bubble signal

In an August 1 client note, Essaye wrote that “every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative”—and today, that narrative is AI. But to measure the health of the AI trade, he points to the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), not just Nvidia.

Semiconductors are the “lifeblood” of AI, yet SOX remains below its July 2024 highs while the S&P 500 has climbed nearly 14% in the same period. That lagging performance, Essaye says, is a meaningful divergence:

“If AI remains the primary source of bullish optimism… this market is in trouble and at risk of rolling over sooner than later.”

He cautions that if SOX begins a material selloff, the S&P 500 likely won’t be far behind.

Adding to the risk: weaker recent payrolls, rising continuing jobless claims, and stretched valuations after an ~85% rally from the October 2022 lows.

“It is critical to keep close tabs on economic data right now,” Essaye stressed in an August 8 note, warning the broader market remains vulnerable to considerable downside if economic resilience falters.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on August 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Talks Growth, Fed, and Tariffs

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Financial Sense Newshour preview

Are Markets Ignoring Warning Signs? Tom Essaye Talks Growth, Fed, and Tariffs (Preview)

Markets appear upbeat—but could they be overlooking brewing risks? In this preview from Financial Sense Newshour (FS Insider), Sevens Report President Tom Essaye explores the tension between bullish sentiment and fragile economic signals.

Essaye discusses how investor optimism is colliding with warning signs around economic growth, Federal Reserve positioning, and trade policy uncertainty.

Also, click here to view the full video preview published on YouTube.com on August 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Stagflation Fears Keep Rising?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  ISM Services the Key Report This Week (Needs to Stay Above 50)

Futures are seeing a moderate bounce following Friday’s declines and after a mostly quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there was potentially positive news over the weekend as Swiss officials implied a trade deal with the U.S. was close, which would reduce tariffs.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will remain on trade, and any announcement of trade deals that reduce tariffs will be a mild tailwind on the markets.

Finally, earnings season has mostly wrapped up but there are some remaining notable companies reporting including: BRK.B ($5.24), W ($0.27), ON ($0.54), TSN ($0.72), PLTR ($0.08), MELI ($12.01), AXON ($0.08).

 

Worried About an AI Bubble? Watch This Indicator

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Tom Essaye says chip stocks may be the canary in the coal mine

Stocks Are Hitting New Highs and Investors Don’t Believe It

While artificial intelligence remains the dominant market narrative, Sevens Report President Tom Essaye warns that investors should be cautious about hype outpacing reality.

“Every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative,” Essaye wrote, comparing today’s AI surge to past booms like the dot-com and housing bubbles. He suggests that the best early warning signs may come from semiconductor stocks—especially the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX).

Nvidia may be hitting record highs, but Essaye cautions that focusing solely on NVDA could be misleading. “That divergence in index performance is meaningful,” he said. If SOX begins to materially sell off, he warns, “the S&P 500 will almost certainly not be far behind.”

Although he stops short of calling the top, Essaye believes equity markets are underpricing the risks. “There is a significant sense of complacency in equity markets right now,” he wrote, urging investors to stay alert in the second half of 2025.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on August 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

AI Euphoria Driving Market Bubble? Sevens Report Co-Editor Warns

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Tyler Richey compares tech rally to Looney Tunes—gravity may come next

US stocks soar to new highs as fears of bubble bursting rise

As U.S. stocks soar to record highs, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, warns the market may be approaching a bursting point.

“Every market bubble in modern history has had a narrative,” said Richey. “In 2000, it was the internet. In 2008, real estate. In 2025, it’s AI.” With NVIDIA’s market cap jumping $1.933 trillion since April, Richey likens the chip sector’s run to the Road Runner, while the S&P 500 plays Wile E. Coyote—suspended in midair, just before the fall.

He pointed to:

  • Multidecade extremes in relative strength

  • Technical imbalances across sectors

  • Bearish sentiment divergence despite index highs

“A downward force that the broader stock market could very well be on the brink of facing itself,” Richey warned.

Also, click here to view the full article published in S&P Global on July 31st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday

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Dissents unlikely to signal policy shift amid speculation over Fed succession

How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday

Under normal circumstances, dissents for a rate cut would signal a dovish shift. But current dynamics make that unlikely to move markets, said Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Research.

“Don’t believe any reporting that implies the dissents are a dovish surprise or make a September rate cut more likely,” Essaye wrote Tuesday. “It won’t be a surprise and they won’t make a September cut more likely.”

Essaye notes that any dissents from Waller or Bowman would be seen as political positioning, not monetary policy pivots—particularly as both are viewed as potential successors to Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.