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Where Do We Stand With Tariffs (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs? (Updated 3/5/25)

Futures are higher amid risk-on global money flows after U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be scaled back as soon as today while the Ukraine-U.S. minerals deal is also seeing progress which is easing geopolitical worries.

Economically, the Eurozone Composite PMI met estimates at 50.2 while EU PPI jumped up to 1.8% vs. (E) 1.4% in January, rekindling still simmering inflation worries.

This morning is lining up to be a busy one as there are several noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic reports due to be released beginning with the February ADP Employment Report (E: 162K). Then, shortly after the open, both Factory Orders (E: 1.4%), and the February ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0) will be released.

There are no Fed speakers today, however there is a 4-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and demand for the short-duration securities could shed light on the latest shifts in Fed policy expectations.

Finally, earnings season continues with notable reports due to be released from ANF ($3.48), MRVL ($0.59), and VSCO ($2.30).

Where Is the Trump Put?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Is the Trump Put?
  • Chart – NVDA Violates Support
  • Chart – Atlanta FED GDPNow Collapses to Negative Territory
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest the latest developments in the emerging global trade war.

The Trump administration confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico went into effect overnight while tariffs on China were increased from 10% to 20%, prompting retaliatory trade policy actions from those nations which added to trade-war uncertainties.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate fell to 6.2% vs. (E) 6.3% which saw global yields rise modestly.

Looking into today’s session, there is one second-tiered economic report to watch: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.9 million) and one Fed speaker in the afternoon: Williams (2:20 p.m. ET).

Additionally, we will get quarterly earnings from more big-name retailers today which could shed further light on consumer spending trends including: TGT ($2.25), BBY ($2.40), JWN ($0.90), and ROST ($1.65).

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye

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“Where’s the Trump Put?”: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Up in Late Hours on Hints of Tariff Relief: Markets Wrap

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on March 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?
  • February Consumer Confidence Takeaways
  • Chart – Case-Shiller Home Price Index Highlights Sticky Inflation Pressures

Futures are solidly higher with mega-cap tech leading the early advance amid renewed AI optimism after Chinese AI company DeepSeek reopened access to its core interface model while investors await NVDA earnings after the close (shares up ~2.5% pre-market).

There are a slew of potential market catalysts today starting with one economic report due out shortly after the open: New Home Sales (E: 680K) and two noteworthy Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET (important for near-term Fed policy rate expectations) and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (important to gauge investor concerns about an economic slowdown).

Finally, there are a few notable consumer companies reporting earnings before the open including LOW ($1.83) and TJX ($1.16) but the biggest potential market moving catalyst of the day comes after the close with NVDA earnings ($0.84), as well as two other important tech-related earnings releases from CRM ($2.61) and SNOW ($0.18).

Four Reasons Investors Are Worried About Washington

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Investors Worried About Washington? (Four Reasons)
  • Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Adds to Growth Fears

Futures are slightly lower as most global markets declined overnight, led by Asian tech stocks, after President Trump reiterated tariff plans for Canada and Mexico and revealed new plans limiting China’s semiconductor industry.

Today, there are two housing market reports to watch: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), before the more important economic release of the day, Consumer Confidence (E: 103.0) is due to be released shortly after the opening bell.

Following a string of weak economic reports in recent days, the market will be looking for some more upbeat and stable growth and consumer confidence figures today to help equities stabilize.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker in the early afternoon: Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to move bond yields and impact equity market trading.

Finally, earnings season continues with a few notable companies reporting today including: HD ($3.04), KDP ($0.57), AMC ($-0.16), AXON ($1.41), and INTU ($2.58).

Would be a substantial new negative for stocks.

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Lowering energy prices to combat sticky high inflation: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

Stagflation is the new threat to stock-market rally. What investors should know.

Meanwhile, Tom Essaye, president and founder of the Sevens Report, said his market-analysis firm will be closely looking for a rising risk of stagflation in coming weeks, which “would be a substantial new negative for stocks.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on February 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

Futures are little changed following slightly disappointing economic data overnight.

EU and UK flash PMIs underwhelmed as the EU Services PMI declined to 50.7 vs. (51.5) while the UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 vs. (E) 48.5, underscoring the economic headwinds facing the EU and UK.

Today focus will stay on economic data and the two key reports are the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.3) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0).  Markets will want to see in-line to slightly weak readings but most importantly, no big jumps in the price indices like we saw in Empire and Philly earlier this week.

Other notable events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.16 million) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 68.0) as well as two Fed speakers:  Jefferson (11:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:30 a.m. ET).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Latest Bitcoin & Crypto Insights (New Regular Series)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Latest Bitcoin & Crypto Insights (New Regular Series)
  • FOMC Minutes:  Why Markets Still Expect a Rate Cut in 2025

Futures are slightly lower mostly on digestion following a generally quiet night of news.

Economically, the only notable report was German PPI, which was better than expected (-1.2% vs. (E) -0.5% y/y).

Politically, there has been little progress on a debt ceiling extension (March 12th deadline) and markets are starting to notice.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak.  The key economic reports today are Philly Fed (E: 22.7) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and readings that are right around expectations will be the best case for markets.  For Philly Fed specifically, investors will be watching the price indices and if they leap higher, like we saw in Tuesday’s Empire State Manufacturing Index, that will increase inflation concerns and likely weigh on stocks.

Turning to the Fed, there are multiple speakers today including Goolsbee (9:35 a.m. ET), Musalem (12:05 p.m. ET), Barr (2:30 p.m. ET) and Kugler (5:00 p.m. ET) but as long as they don’t imply the Fed is done cutting rates, they shouldn’t impact markets.

Lowering Energy Prices To “Combat Sticky High Inflation”

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Lowering energy prices to combat sticky high inflation: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices end lower as U.S. crude supplies climb for a third week in a row

A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, or end of the war, could be bearish for oil if Trump, who is adamant about lowering energy prices to “combat sticky high inflation” pushes for an immediate removal of all sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Also, geopolitical stability may “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.”

The market’s reaction to the CPI data underscored that “higher-for-longer Fed policy is becoming increasingly likely in 2025,” Richey said. “That ultimately raises the risk that restrictive rates choke off growth and tip the economy over a fragile edge into a recession, a historically demand-crippling phase of the economic cycle for oil and refined products.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation

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Tom Essaye Interview With Financial Sense

This Week: Sticky Inflation and More Tariffs – Tom Essaye on Market Response

Financial expert Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation, the potential impact of new tariffs, and why the Fed may be forced to reconsider rate cuts. With the S&P 500 at record highs, Essaye warns of market vulnerability and highlights where investors should be looking now. Don’t miss this deep dive into inflation, interest rates, and market strategy!

Also, click here to view the full interview with Financial Sense published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.