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Is the Tariff Announcement A Bearish Gamechanger?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Tariff Announcement A Bearish Gamechanger?
  • Jobs Report Preview

Global markets are sharply lower as S&P 500 futures fall three percent in response to President Trump’s worse than feared reciprocal tariff announcement.

President Trump announced baseline 10% tariffs on virtually all imports and dramatically higher tariffs on numerous major trading partners, dramatically intensifying the global trade war and spiking global recession concerns.

Today focus will remain on trade and any hint that the announced tariffs could be negotiated lower will help stocks bounce, while the administration dismissing negotiations will only add more downward pressures to markets.

Away from trade, there are several important economic reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 226K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0).  If those numbers disappoint, the selling will get worse as recession fears surge.  Finally, there are two Fed speakers today, Jefferson (12:30 p.m. ET) and Cook (3:30 p.m. ET), although they shouldn’t move markets.

What worked in the first quarter would continue to work in the second

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What worked in the first quarter would continue to work in the second: Tom Essaye Quoted in Business Insider

Buy the dip or stay defensive? Where to invest as tariffs roil stocks

Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, said what worked in the first quarter would continue to work in the second.

That is, basically everything except for tech, consumer discretionary, communication services, and industrials. Those are the four S&P 500 sectors, out of 11, that are in the red so far this year.

Energy and defensive sectors — which are usually healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples — in particular, should outperform in the months ahead, Essaye said.

“Tariffs are going to continue to cause whiplash, but there are parts of the market that are actually performing pretty well,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full Business Insider article published on April 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The name is still too expensive to buy, Essaye said

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The name is still too expensive to buy: Tom Essaye Quoted on Yahoo Finance

Palantir (PLTR) Is Called Too Expensive by Schwab Guests

Similarly, Essaye said that PLTR should be examined “in a context of reasonable valuation.” Although the shares are down a great deal from their highs, the name is still too expensive to buy, Essaye said. He added that the stock is being pressured by worries over the AI sector and fears about lower spending on contracts by Washington.

“Federal contracts are a large part of the company’s business,” Essaye noted.

Expressing his view of PLTR more bluntly, Essaye said that it “can continue to decline,” adding that it would have to drop a great deal more before he would “become interested” in it.

“It’s a good company, but it’s so richly valued that it can fall quite a bit more before value buyers step in,” he warned.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Yahoo Finance published on April 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist
  • GDP Details Point to Economic Weakness Emerging in Q4

U.S. equity futures are flat to lower this morning as traders continue to digest this week’s fluid tariff and trade war developments ahead of critical domestic inflation data.

Economically, Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index came in at -24.5 vs. (E) -22.0 while the official German Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2%. The downbeat German data is weighing on EU markets.

Today, focus will be on inflation data early with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric due out ahead of the bell: PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y), Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y). A cooler-than-expected or in-line number will be well-received by investors.

Then after the open, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will be released (E: 57.9, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 4.9%) and markets will want to see a stabilizing headline and steady or lower 1-Yr inflation expectations in order for markets to stage a rebound.

Finally, there are two Fed speakers this afternoon: Barr (12:15 p.m. ET) and Bostic (3:30 p.m. ET). Fed speak has been on the hawkish/cautious side this week so any encouraging commentary or a dovish tone would be welcomed, especially in the wake of “cool” inflation data.

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery
  • February Durable Goods Takeaway
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Update

U.S. futures are lower with most global equity markets this morning as President Trump announced fresh details about automobile tariffs and other new trade policies after the close yesterday, further raising trade war angst.

Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits edged down -0.3% in February, an improvement from January’s -3.3% print, but the report was not enough to offset tariff worries.

Today, market focus will be on economic data early in the day with Final Q4 GDP (E: 2.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 225K), International Trade in Goods (E: $-135.5B), and Pending Home Sales (E: 2.9%) all due to be released.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Barkin (4:30 p.m. ET) and a few more late-season earnings reports due from SNX ($2.91) and LULU ($5.87) that could move markets (but likely will not given the focus on global trade policies right now).

Charles Dow Would Be Selling Stocks Now

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Charles Dow Would Officially Be Selling Stocks Now
  • Consumer Confidence Takeaways – Another Survey-Based Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are slightly lower after a mostly quiet night of news as this week’s so-far-solid gains are digested with investors weighing favorable inflation data out of Europe against simmering tariff uncertainties.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell from 3.0% to 2.8% vs. (E) 2.9% in February with Core CPI down from 3.7% to 3.5%.  The “cool” inflation data is helping U.K. markets outperform European peers this morning.

Today, there is one noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic report due out ahead of the open: Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.0%). A “Goldilocks” report that is no worse than expected should help equities maintain WTD gains while a “too hot” or “too cold” print could spark some profit taking given the tentative nature of this week’s advance.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers today: Kashkari (10:00 a.m. ET) and Musalem (1:10 p.m. ET), as well as a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Less-hawkish commentary from the Fed officials and healthy but not urgent demand for the 5-Yr Notes should be well-received by investors today.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy, late-season earnings reports due out today from DLTR ($2.18), CHWY ($3.19), and JEF ($0.88), but none are likely to have a material impact on the broader market.

We should expect continued volatile markets

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Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

Stocks up sharply as tariff angst eases, but traders see more uncertainty ahead

“Until trade and tariff policy are known and consistent and we get a break from the dramatic overhaul of the Federal government, we should expect continued volatile markets and be aware that this pullback likely isn’t over,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on February 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Easing trade war angst

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Easing trade war angst: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Tesla Stock’s 12% Surge Powers Broader Comeback—As Investors Bet Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Won’t Be So Bad

The rally came thanks to “easing trade war angst” on Wall Street, explained Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, referencing Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal’s weekend reports that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect next week will be far more focused in nature than Trump previously suggested.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Six Market Questions Answered

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Explain This Market to Clients (Six Investor Questions Answered)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Q1’25 Correction Over?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat-Sheet: Focus on PMIs and PCE

U.S. stock futures are higher this morning as easing trade war angst is overshadowing soft EU economic data.

A Bloomberg article published on Saturday suggested that the Trump administration’s April 2nd tariff package would be more “targeted” in nature, a welcomed, positive trade war headline which is supporting risk-on money flows to start the week.

Economically, the Eurozone’s latest PMI Composite Flash rose to 50.4 vs. (E) 50.5 as weakness in Services offset strength in Manufacturing which is sending some mixed signals about the health of the EU economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, investor focus in the U.S. will be on economic data early as the U.S. Composite PMI Flash is due out shortly after the bell with the Manufacturing PMI seen easing to 51.8 while the Services PMI is expected to firm to 51.2. investors will want to see a “Goldilocks” data that neither prompts hawkish money flows nor rekindles growth worries.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers to watch: Bostic (1:45 p.m. ET) and Barr (3:10 p.m. ET) as well as a few late-season earnings reports due out from LUNR ($-0.08) and KBH ($1.56) but those catalysts are less likely to move markets  that the early economic data.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are moderately lower as markets digest and give back some of Wednesday’s post-Fed rally, following a generally quiet night of news.

There were no new tariff headlines overnight while economic data (UK Labour Market Report) met expectations.

Today focus will turn back to economic data and there are several notable reports including, in order of importance, Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 11.5), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.95 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.2%).  Given rising economic worries, the stronger these reports (especially the first two) the better.

There are also several important earnings reports to watch today including ACN ($2.84), MU ($1.44), NKE ($0.28), FDX ($4.66), PDD ($2.56).  Given recent soft guidance from various companies, the stronger the results and guidance, the better for markets.