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Updated Technical Take On the Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Technical Take
  • EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis
  • More Bad Consumer Earnings

Futures are solidly higher following better-than-expected economic data and as markets continue to recoup Monday’s declines ahead of the Powell speech tomorrow.

Economic data was better than expected overnight as German GDP beat estimates (1.8% vs. (E) 1.4%) as did the IFO Business Expectations survey (80.3 vs. (E) 78.8).

On the Fed front, Bostic said the September rate hike was a 50/50 proposition between 50 bps or 75 bps, and that’s largely in line with market expectations.

Today’s focus will be on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 255k) and Revised Q2 GDP (E: -0.9%) and markets will want to see a continued slow rise in jobless claims and a stable GDP report (so not materially worse than expected).

Additionally, while the official Fed speaker calendar doesn’t have any events today, we should prepare for a deluge of Fed commentary via the financial media (CNBC, FT, WSJ, Marketwatch, etc.) as the Jackson Hole conference begins.  Barring any major surprise commentary, though, markets should look past Fed speak today and focus on Powell’s speech tomorrow.

Why Didn’t Stocks Fall on the Ugly PMIs?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Didn’t the Ugly PMIs Cause a Further Decline in Stocks?
  • August Flash PMI Takeaways
  • Dollar Index Hits New Highs: Chart
  • Is there a New “OPEC+ Put” Under the Oil Market?

Stock futures are flat and international markets were little changed overnight as currency and bond markets continued to stabilize with the focus remaining on the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later in the week.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today, no Fed officials are scheduled to speak leaving the focus on economic data early with Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.5%) and Pending Home Sales (E -2.5%) both due out early in the day.

Beyond those economic reports, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and if it is as soft as yesterday’s 2-Yr Note auction, that could result in rising yields which would in turn weigh on stocks ahead of Jackson Hole. However, barring any meaningful moves in the currency and bond markets today, it should be relatively quiet as traders begin to position into Powell’s speech on Friday morning.

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on August 18th, 2022

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Bond yields tick lower, cooling off after Fed’s meeting minutes released

Bottom line, the market continues to view virtually all Fed utterances as implying a less-hawkish pivot and Wednesday wasn’t any exception as the FOMC minutes erased the dollar’s earlier gains and cut the rise in Treasury yields as stocks continue to ignore signals from the currency and bond markets that imply the Fed will not be making this hoped for pivot anytime soon, wrote Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

What’s Changed With the Fed

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Changed with the Fed (and What Hasn’t)
  • Technical Update

Futures are moderately lower following mixed economic data and after a WSJ article warned the market was underestimating Fed conviction on rate hikes.

Economically, German PPI surged 37.2% vs. (E) 30.9% y/y on exploding electricity costs while UK Retail Sales fell –3.4% vs. (E) -3.3%.  Both numbers highlight the economic challenges facing the EU and UK.

A WSJ article warned of a “reckoning” for stocks as markets think the Fed is bluffing about further hikes and that’s weighing on sentiment this morning.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there is one Fed speaker, Barkin at 9:00 a.m. ET, and if he echoes this disconnect between Fed intentions and market expectations for rates, that will further pressure stocks today.

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • Takeaways From a Dismal Empire State Manufacturing Report

Futures are modestly lower this morning as investors digest more downbeat economic data and disappointing earnings out of HD ahead of the Fed Minutes tomorrow.

The German ZEW Survey’s Economic Sentiment reading was -55.2 vs. (E) -52.7, underscoring ongoing concerns about the outlook for growth in the months ahead.

Looking to today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Housing Starts and Permits (1.540M, 1.650M) and Industrial Production (E: 0.3%). Data has been disappointing so far this week so any positivity in the releases could help buoy equities in what has been so far a pretty quiet trading week.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but WMT ($1.60) will report earnings in the pre-market and investors will be looking for the massive retailer to reiterate guidance and meet or beat estimates to provide evidence that the consumer remains resilient in the face of extremely high inflation. Any disappointment in the quarterly results could spur volatility given the most recent leg higher in stocks leaving the market overbought.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 12th, 2022

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The S&P 500 Had Its Fourth Straight Winning Week—and What Else Happened in the Stock Market Today

Data released this week suggests that inflation may have peaked, allowing the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive when boosting interest rates…Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research said Friday that the S&P 500’s current level reflects that growing sentiment. Click here to read the full article.

Did the Markets Achieve Peak Inflation & Peak Hawkishness

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Keys to a Bottom Update:  Did the Markets Achieve Peak Inflation & Peak Hawkishness?
  • Weekly Market Update:  Can Stocks Hold the Recent Gains?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  All About Growth This Week (And the Data Needs to be Solid)

Futures are modestly lower after Chinese economic data missed estimates and the Chinese central bank cut rates in response.

Chinese economic data was soft as Industrial Production (3.8% vs. (E) 4.3%) and Retail Sales (2.7% vs. (E) 4.9%) both missed estimates.  In response, China’s central bank announced a surprise 10 bps rate cut, a move that signals economic concern but also doesn’t offer a lot of help (a 10 bps cut won’t make a difference as long as “Zero COVID” is an in-force policy).

Focus today will be on the August Empire Manufacturing Survey (E: 5.0) and specifically the price index within the report.  The sharp drop in that price index kicked off the “peak inflation” rally of the last month, so markets will be looking for continued signals that growth is stable (so a solid headline reading) and inflation is falling (another drop in the price index).

We also get the July Housing Market Index (E: 55.0) and we have one Fed speaker,  Waller (10:50 a.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 9th, 2022

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Oil Earnings Outlook Dims. Blame Cheaper Oil.

For oil’s drop, it’s mostly a demand story. If you see oil move into the high to mid 70s, people are going rethink the idea that these companies are cash flow-generating machines, Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo on August 8th, 2022

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S&P 500 Finishes Lower After Wiping Out 1% Rally: Markets Wrap

The economy still has to digest all this tightening, and that will materially slow things…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 4th, 2022

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The Dow Wavered, Alibaba Gained—and What Else Happened in the Stock Market Today

I think that as we are on the precipice of this jobs report, really what we’re seeing today is a bit of digestion of that of the recent of the two days gains,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, told Barron’s on Thursday. Click here to read the full article.