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The Case for Investing in Europe (Updated), April 25, 2017

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The Case for Europe, Updated

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European indices and ETFs exploded to new 52-week highs yesterday following the expected French election results. The likely removal of that French political risk overhang reinforces our bullish thesis on Europe, especially given some wobbling in US economic data recently.

On March 21 we presented “The Case for Europe,” which was our bullish thesis on Europe as a tactical investment idea. Since we presented that piece, the three Europe ETFs we recommended have rallied an average of 4.2% vs. the S&P 500 just being flat over the same period. We think that outperformance from Europe can continue for the coming months, so we are presenting an updated “Case for Europe,” and reiterating our bullish stance on three Europe ETFs.

Bullish Factor #1: Compelling Relative Valuation. The reasoning here is simple. The S&P 500 is trading at the top end of historical valuations: 18.25X 2017 EPS, and 17.75X 2018 EPS. There’s not much room for those multiples to go higher, and if we get policy disappointment or the economic data loses momentum, markets could hit a nasty air pocket.

(Specific data and ETFs withheld for subscribers – unlock with free trial: 7sReport.com) 

So, while it’s true Europe should trade at a lower multiple vs. the US given the still-slow growth and political issues, those discounts are pretty compelling. In a world where most equity indices and sectors are fully valued, Europe offers value.

Update: The valuation gap still remains and European indices trade at a still steep discount to the S&P 500. We continue to think we can see multiple expansion in Europe that can help European stocks outperform their US counterparts.

Bullish Factor #2: Ongoing Central Bank Support. This one also is pretty simple… the ECB is still doing QE. The ECB is still planning to buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds through December of this year. That will support the economy, help earnings and push inflation higher, all of which are positive for stocks.

Update: The ECB reacted dovishly to perceptions that it might prematurely end QE or raise rates, and with inflation metrics still uncomfortably low, the chances of a hawkish surprise from the ECB anytime soon are low.

Bullish Factor #3: Overblown political risk. We’ve been talking about this for a while, but the fact is that political risks in Europe are overblown, and just like people underappreciated risks in 2016, I believe they are now overreacting to Brexit and Trump by extrapolating those results too far.

Going forward, there are really two important elections this year: France and Germany.

Update: Macron beat Le Pen in the first round of voting, and according to both the Harris and Ipsos polls taken right after voting on Sunday, Macron holds a large 64% to 36% ad-vantage ahead of the May 7 election.

Turning to Germany, they will have elections in September, and Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz will challenge Merkel for the Prime Minster position. Schultz is a former President of the European Parliament, and he’s not anti EU at all. So, if he wins, from an EU outlook standpoint, it isn’t a negative. Now, I’m not going to get into the details of his politics, because they aren’t yet important for this investment. The bigger point is that it’s not really a problem for the European economy if Schultz wins.

Bottom line, we’ve done well in international investments in the past (Japan during Abenomics, Europe when they started QE), and we believe this is another opportunity to outperform.

How to Play It: (Specific data and ETFs withheld for subscribers – unlock with free trial: 7sReport.com) 

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French Election: The Good, Bad & Ugly. April 21, 2017

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This Sunday is the first round of voting in the French election, and the event has the potential to move markets depending on which two candidates come in first and second. Yet before getting into the expected results, I want to give some background on how the election works and who is running.

How It Works: The French election almost always has two rounds of voting. The first round, which occurs Sunday, contains all major candidates. If one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, he or she be-comes president. However, because there are always so many candidates in the first round, this almost never happens (last time was in ’95).

So, the two top finishers from the first vote then face a run off in round two, which will take place two weeks from Sunday. Whoever wins that second vote becomes the French president. So, Sunday’s vote is important because it will determine which two candidates will advance to the second round on May 7.

Who Is Running: There are four candidates you need to be aware of: Macron, Fillon, Le Pen and Mélenchon. From a market standpoint, Macron and Fillon represent the status quo. The market would be fine with either winning the French presidency (i.e. no immediate sell-off).

That cannot be said for Le Pen and Mélenchon. To keep this simple and short, if Le Pen wins, the chances of a “Frexit” (France leaving the EU) go up considerably, as she is a far-right, anti-EU candidate. Conversely, Mélenchon is a far-left socialist. While he would keep France in the EU, his economic and social policies lie uncomfortably close to outright socialism. That clearly would not be good for the French economy, or French stocks.

Facebook - French Election

Election Results Scenario

The Good: Macron and Fillon Finish 1 & 2. Both are considered reasonably centrist, and the status quo in France would continue. Likely Market Reaction: (Withheld for subscribers. Unlock with a free trial — no credit card needed: 7sReport.com.)

The Bad: Le Pen or Mélenchon Finish 1 or 2. Based on polls, it’s likely that Le Pen will come in first or second in voting on Sunday, while Mélenchon is more of a dark horse. Likely Market Reaction: (Withheld for subscribers. Unlock with a free trial — no credit card needed: 7sReport.com.)

The Ugly: Le Pen and Mélenchon Finish 1 & 2. This is extremely unlikely based on polling, but as 2016 taught us, anything can happen. This is the market’s worst-case scenario, as it would introduce material political and economic risk into the European and global economies. We would view this result as a bearish gamechanger, and would likely exit HEDJ and EUFN longs. Likely Market Reaction: (Withheld for subscribers. Unlock with a free trial — no credit card needed: 7sReport.com.)

Bottom Line: From a macro standpoint, and for our position in HEDJ specifically, anything other than the “Ugly” scenario shouldn’t pressure markets materially. And while the “Bad” scenario will extend the possibility of political risk in France, all the indicators say that either Macron or Fillon will be the next French president—and that will only reinforce our bullish Europe thesis.

This is a volatile, politically sensitive investment global landscape—you need The Sevens Report to stay ahead of the changes, and to calm worried clients—help your clients outperform markets with The Sevens Report.

Geopolitical Update: Bearish Catalyst or Excuse?, April 12, 2017

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Syria Political MapGeopolitical risk has reared its head over the past week, but while the potential military showdowns in Syria or North Korea are the focus of the media headlines, in reality these events aren’t so much direct risks on stocks as they are a reminder of just how priced to perfection the stock market is right now.

Getting more specific, it’s not that anything really got worse yesterday in Syria or North Korea (and if anything,Tillerson heading to Russia may help calm tensions). But rising geopolitical tensions are simply piling on right now along with growth and policy anxiety.

That said, there is always the possibility of more military action in Syria and/or North Korea, so I want to cover each situation briefly and review which sectors and assets are winners and losers during periods of heightened geopolitical stress (should we see one).

Syria: All about Russia. The Syrian situation is important from a geopolitical standpoint, because it indirectly pits the US against Russia. For context, Syria is in the middle of a horrific six-year civil war. The Syrian government and rebels have fought to a standstill for the last several years, thanks to Russia’s arming of the Syrian government and (likely) the US’ arming of the Syrian rebels. Given those proxies, sensationalists out there tout the possibility of the US and Russia getting involved in a military conflict due to their opposed positions.

That is the big fear; however, it is very, very unlikely that will happen. Syria simply isn’t that important to either nation, and apart from the human tragedy (which is quickly approaching Biblical standards for those poor people) that situation is much more bluster than battle.

North Korea: All About China. While Syria gets the headlines, North Korea is considered the much bigger actual geopolitical risk. The reason is partly because its leader, Kim Jong-un, is viewed as mentally unstable, and because the country has low-grade nuclear weapons.

This week, the situation has escalated after President Trump sent a US naval carrier group to patrol the waters off the Korean peninsula, a not-so-subtle reminder that the US is watching. But what likely prevents this standoff from becoming something more serious is China.

China basically funds North Korea’s economy, and it has long been believed that the only way to get North Korea to comply with international demands is through China.

From a geopolitical standpoint, it is very unlikely North Korea would launch a preemptive strike against the US, Japan or anyone else for fear of losing Chinese economic support. So again, while there are dangers, the likelihood of actual military conflict is low.

What It Means for Stocks

As we learned in 2016 with Brexit and Trump, just because something is viewed as being low probability doesn’t mean it won’t happen! With that in mind, there will be specific sector winners and losers if we see further elevated geopolitical tensions.

Sector Winners of Increased Tensions. Withheld for subscribers. Unlock with a free trial of the Sevens Report.

Sector Losers of Increased Geopolitical Risks. Withheld for subscribers. Unlock with a free trial of the Sevens Report.

Going forward, we don’t think geopolitics will be a major influence over stocks (and don’t think yesterday’s sell-off was caused by geopolitics). But as we said Monday, even a small uptick in geopolitical risks with valuations stretched and markets this optimistic could exacerbate any earnings, economic or policy-related pullbacks in stocks.

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Last Week and This Week in Economics, April 3, 2017

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“Last Week and This Week in Economics”—an excerpt from today’s Sevens Report: everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less.

Last Week

Sevens Report - April 3, 2017 - This Week and Last WeekEconomic data was sparse again last week, but what data did come beat expectations (although it didn’t do a lot to bridge the gap between survey-based indicators and hard economic data). Still, the numbers did continue to be enough to offset growing Washington noise.

Consumer confidence was the highlight of the week, and it blew away expectations. The number rose to the highest level since summer 2001, coming in at 125.6 vs. (E) 113.8. While a strong number, that is another sentiment survey, and these soaring sentiment surveys need to start reflecting in the hard data starting in Q2 (remember, Q1 GDP is still expected to be around 1%).

The other notable number last week was Pending Home Sales, which also beat estimates, rising 5.5% vs. (E) 2.5%. The biggest takeaway from the March housing data is that it appears higher mortgage rates are not hurting the residential housing market, and that’s an important but underappreciated tailwind on the economy, generally speaking. Going forward, a stable housing market remains critical if there’s any hope to seeing a material economic acceleration.

Bottom line, the last two weeks have been light on economic data, but what numbers we’ve got have generally been good, and as a broad statement the economic data has continued to offset lack of progress in Washington… but that trend will be put to the test this week.

This Week

After two quiet weeks of economic releases, we more than make up for it this week, as the three most-important economic releases of the month all come over the next five days. From a broader context standpoint, with Washington stuck in neutral and hopes of big tax reform fading, economic data needs to stay firm to support stocks. If the data disappoints this week, don’t be surprised if we test last week’s lows.

The most important release this week is Friday’s jobs report. We will do our typical “Jobs Report Preview” later this week, but again it’s important this number is Goldilocks, in that it’s strong enough to support the market, but not so strong that it makes a May rate hike more likely.

The next most-important release this week is the global manufacturing PMIs (out today). The European and Asian numbers have already been released, and focus now turns to the March ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10 a.m. today. This number is taking on a bit more significance due to the disappointment of the flash manufacturing PMI of two weeks ago. It hit a surprise six-month low, so markets will want to see the ISM Manufacturing PMI refute that reading.

The manufacturing PMI is followed by the global manufacturing PMIs out Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Those reports will again potentially confirm the uptick in global growth, and especially in Europe, where numbers have been strong lately. Domestically, it’s the same story. Economic data needs to support this market in the face of disappointment from Washington. Failure to do that puts this rally at risk.

The only other notable event this week will be the ECB minutes. If the minutes read hawkish, that could put a temporary headwind on HEDJ and long Europe positions. But a dip will likely be a buying opportunity in HEDJ.

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Time to Buy Emerging Markets? March 29, 2017

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The Case for Emerging Markets, an excerpt from today’s Sevens Report. Everything you need to know about the market in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less.

Time to invest in emerging markets, tom essayeAs expectations for a pro-growth policy based reflation trade (i.e. the Trump trade) fade here in the US, one potential beneficiary is emerging markets. The sector has underperformed since the election due to a combination of

1) Dollar strength,

2) Rising US bond yields, and

3) Fear of trade wars.

But, if we see an extended pause in the dollar and bond yield rally, and continued poor execution on pro-growth policies, then emerging markets offer value in an otherwise expensive market.

Now, I’m not saying I’m a long-term bull on emerging markets, nor does this analysis mean I’m not a long-term bull on the dollar or bond yields… I think both go higher long term.

However, the fact is this market has already priced in a an acceleration of growth in the US. If that doesn’t materialize, we could see a sideways chop in the dollar and bond yields, and emerging markets will likely outperform near term (i.e. the next few months).

The investment thesis behind EM is comprised of three pillars: Valuation, inverse correlation to the US-based reflation trade, and positive exposure to global growth.

Pillar 1: Attractive Relative Valuation. Emerging markets are much cheaper than most developed markets, as several research pieces we’ve read have emerging markets trading 12X forward P/E, compared to 17X and 15X for the US and Europe, respectively. So, there is value there, especially after the under-performance following the election.

Pillar 2: Hedge Against a Reflation Trade Unwind. If we see the reflation trade continue to unwind (which started in earnest last Tuesday) then emerging markets will benefit. Case in point, since the election, our preferred emerging market ETF (withheld for subscribers) has returned 5.9%. But, almost all of those gains have come over the past few weeks thanks to the Fed’s dovish hike, and the healthcare failure.

If reflation trade enthusiasm wanes in the US, emerging markets will continue to benefit thanks to the weaker dollar and lower yields. To put it simply, emerging market returns are highly inversely correlated to the dollar. If we see the dollar continue to grind sideways or continue to fall, emerging markets should outperform.

Pillar 3: Positive Exposure to Global Growth. Finally, emerging markets should benefit from a rising global economic tide. US rate hikes aside, the rest of the world’s central banks remain very “easy,” and generally speaking global growth is on an upswing… and that should continue to benefit emerging markets. There are, however, risks to the trade. First, if we get border adjustments in a corporate tax cut package, that’s negative EM because it effectively puts a tax on all emerging market exports (i.e. raw materials), which will reduce demand. Second, if the Fed becomes more hawkish near term, then the dollar and bond yields will rise, and EM will lag. Third, if China sees another growth scare that will hurt EM. Finally, if the Trump administration begins to levy import taxes or engages in aggressive trade policies, that will obviously be EM negative. Of these risks, we view the most probable as the Fed getting more hawkish. But, near term that just isn’t very likely. So, the risks to this strategy are real, but we don’t view them as imminent.

Finally, I’m not saying emerging markets are a long-term strategy, but I do think EM is something that can outperform over the coming months, especially if we see a lack of progress on tax cuts. As such, EM offers reasonable upside in a market where not much is cheap, and we think the potential reward is worth the risk.

How to Play It

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Last Week and This Week in Economics, March 27, 2017

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“Last Week and This Week in Economics”—an excerpt from today’s Sevens Report: everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less.

For all of 2017, better-than-expected economic data has helped to offset the decreased likelihood of pro-growth policies from Washington, and that continued last week as what little economic data we did receive was generally supportive for stocks.

The Sevens Report, March 27, 2017Looking at Durable Goods, longer-term readers know we ignore the headline and look straight for New Orders for Non-Defense Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (NDCGXA). That is the better measure of business spending, as the headline Durable Goods order is massively skewed by the timing of aircraft orders.

NDCGXA missed estimates in the Feb. report (-0.1% vs. (E) 0.5%), but the January data was revised higher (from -0.4% to 0.1%). So, that largely offsets the miss in February.

The March flash manufacturing PMI was a disappointment, as it missed estimates and hit a surprise six-month low at 53.2 vs. (E) 54.3. But while disappointing, the flash PMI forecasted weakness in February that didn’t appear in other national manufacturing PMIs, and even at 53.2, that’s still a decent absolute number (remember, anything above 50 shows activity accelerating). Point being, that one number doesn’t suggest a loss of momentum.

Looking at other data, February Existing Home Sales slightly missed estimates but February New Home Sales beat estimates. But, with housing it’s helpful to step back from the monthly data and observe the overarching trend, and that trend is stability. All the housing data confirms that so far. Higher mortgage rates are now causing a noticeable slowdown in the housing recovery, and that remains key un-sung support for the economy.

Turning to the Fed, there were multiple speakers last week, but the headliner was Fed Chair Yellen, who made no comments about the economy or policy during her speech. Other Fed members were on balance slightly hawkish, as many of them referenced hiking three or four times this year, but none of it was impactful enough to reverse the dollar or Treasury yield decline we’ve seen since the Fed’s dovish hike in March. Markets still have a June rate hike at about a 50/50 proposition, unchanged from last week.

Bottom line, all the focus was on politics last week, but economic data remains the unsung hero of 2017, and it continues to help offset growing policy headwinds via Washington.

This Week

This week will be another relatively quiet week from an economic standpoint, and once again the most important number won’t come until Friday.

That number is the Core PCE Price Index contained in the Personal Income and Outlays report. That’s important because it’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, and if the headline PCE Price Index breaks through 2.0% yoy (last 1.9%), and the Core PCE Price Index moves further towards 2.0% (last 1.7%), that may elicit a slightly hawkish reaction in markets.

Internationally, there are two notable reports to watch. First, Chinese Manufacturing PMI hits Thursday night, and while China remains on the back burner from a macro standpoint, any signs of economic slowing will surprise markets. Second, EMU Flash HICP (their CPI) comes Friday. The best outcome for European stocks is a Goldilocks number, where core inflation doesn’t rise much from the current 0.9% yoy pace, and as such doesn’t make the ECB think about ending QE prematurely. A Goldilocks number will be positive for European ETFs (HEDJ, VGK, EZU).

Bottom line, this will be another quiet week from a data standpoint, but the numbers need to confirm the acceleration of growth to continue to support stocks. From a risk standpoint, too-strong HICP or Core PCE numbers are the events to watch (they might make the Fed and ECB lean more hawkish).

Politically, there will be a lot of analysis on the shift towards tax cuts (we’ll do a primer this week), but nothing truly important is scheduled. Finally, on the international front, British PM May will formally trigger Article 50 to begin the Brexit process (although that shouldn’t cause much volatility).

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The Case for Europe, March 21, 2017

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Sevens Report - The Case for EuropeThe Case for Europe, an excerpt from today’s full Sevens Report. Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James and more… see if The Sevens Report is right for you with a free trial.

For the past several weeks, I’ve been consistently mentioning Europe as an attractive tactical investment idea. Today, I wanted to more fully lay out the investment thesis, one that is based on 1) Compelling relative valuation, 2) Continued central bank support (i.e. QE), and 3) Overestimation of political risks.

I believe those three factors have created an attractive medium-term risk/reward opportunity in European stocks, and I believe the region can outperform the US over the coming months, especially if we see policy disappointment from Washington.

Bullish Factor #1: Compelling Relative Valuation.

The reasoning here is simple. The S&P 500 is trading at the top end of historical valuations: 18.25X 2017 EPS, and 17.75X 2018 EPS. There’s not much room for those multiples to go higher, and if we get policy disappointment or the economic data loses momentum, markets could hit a nasty air pocket.

Conversely, the MSCI Europe Index is trading at 15.1X 2017 earnings, and 13.8X 2018 earnings. That’s a 17% and 22% discount to the US. So while it’s true Europe should trade at a lower multiple vs. the US given the still-slow growth and political issues, those discounts are pretty compelling. In a world where most equity indices and sectors are fully valued, Europe offers value.

Bullish Factor #2: Ongoing Central Bank Support.

This one also is pretty simple… the ECB is still doing QE. The ECB is still planning to buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds through December of this year. That will support the economy, help earnings and push inflation higher, all of which are positive for stocks. Now, there is a risk that the ECB could begin to taper its QE program before December, or end it all together in December, but neither risk looms immediately, and the much more likely result is that the ECB tapers QE starting in 2018 and ends the program in June 2018. In that scenario, the outlook for Europe over the coming months remains positive.

Bullish Factor #3: Overblown political risk.

We’ve been talking about this for a while, but the fact is that political risks in Europe are overblown, and just like people underappreciated risks in 2016, I believe they are now overreacting to Brexit and Trump by extrapolating those results too far.

Going forward, there are really two important elections this year: France and Germany. The worry is that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win the presidency, but that remains extremely unlikely. The top end of her support looks to be just 25%, which might be enough to win the first round of voting (where voters will cast ballots for no less than 11 candidates). Yet according to all the polling, she badly loses the second round of voting by margins as big as 30% to 70%. Point being, Le Pen is not Brexit, and she’s not Trump.

Second, Germany will have elections in September, and Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz will challenge Merkel for the Prime Minster position. Schultz is a former President of the European Parliament, and he’s not anti EU at all. So, if he wins, from an EU outlook standpoint, it isn’t a negative. Now, I’m not going to get into the details of his politics, because they aren’t yet important for this investment. The bigger point is that it’s not really a problem for the European economy if Schultz wins. Bottom line, we’ve done well in international investments in the past (Japan during Abenomics, Europe when they started QE), and we believe this is another opportunity to outperform.

How to Play It: VGK vs. EZU vs. HEDJ. For subscribers only.

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What to Expect in Tomorrow’s Jobs Report. March 9, 2017

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Jobs Report Preview: For notable releases like tomorrow’s jobs report, the Sevens Report offers a “Goldilocks” outlook to give a few different scenarios: too hot, too cold, and just right.

This gives our subscribers clear talking points to explain the importance of the report to clients and prospects clearly and without a lot of jargon. As always, the Sevens Report is designed to help you cut through the noise and understand what’s truly driving markets—all in seven minutes or less and in your inbox by 7am each morning. Sign up for your free 2-week trial today and see the difference this report can make for you.

Wednesday’s ADP Jobs Report clearly put upward pressure on expectations for tomorrow’s government report. And, there’s good reason for that. Over the past five months, the ADP report has been within 10k jobs of the official jobs report (the one outlier was November, when ADP was 50k over the actual jobs report). So, yesterday’s 298k jobs blowout implies a big number tomorrow.

Given that, the major issue for tomorrow’s jobs report is simple: Will it cause the Fed to consider more than three rate hikes in 2017? If the answer is “yes,” than that’s a headwind on stocks. If the answer is “no,” then it shouldn’t derail the rally.

Getting a bit more specific, the only reason the dollar is still generally stuck at resistance at 102 (and below the recent high at 103), and the 10-year yield is still below 2.60% is because the market assumes that the Fed will still only hike rates three times this year.

If that assumption gets called into doubt via a very strong jobs and wage number tomorrow, we will see the Dollar Index likely surge through 103 and the 10-year yield bust to new highs above 2.60%, and then they will begin to exert at least some headwind on stocks.

So, tomorrow’s jobs report is potentially the most important jobs number in years, as it has the ability to fundamentally alter the market’s perception of just how “gradual” the Fed will be in hiking rates.

“Too Hot” Scenario (Potential for More than Three Rate Hikes in 2017)

  • >250k Job Adds, < 4.9% Unemployment, > 2.9% YOY wage increase. A number this hot would likely ignite the debate about whether the Fed will hike more than three times this year (or more than 75 basis points if the Fed hikes 50 in one meeting). Likely Market Reaction: Restricted for subscribers: Access today by signing up for your free 2-week trial.

“Just Right” Scenario (A March Rate Hike Is A Guarantee, But Three Hikes for 2017 Remain the Expectation)

  • 125k–250k Job Adds, > 5.0% Unemployment Rate, 2.5%-2.8% YOY wage increase. This is the best-case scenario for stocks, as it would imply still-stable job growth, but not materially increase the chances for more than three rate hikes in 2017. This is the most positive outcome for stocks. Likely Market Reaction: Restricted for subscribers: Access today by signing up for your free 2-week trial.

“Too Cold” Scenario (A March Hike Becomes in Doubt)

  • < 125k Job Adds. This would be dovish, and while the fallout would be less than previous months given the market’s focus on future growth, the bottom line is bad economic data still isn’t good for stocks. Dovish isn’t bullish any-more. Likely Market Reaction: Restricted for subscribers: Access today by signing up for your free 2-week trial.

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How Many Rate Hikes in 2017? Last Week and This Week: March 5, 2017

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The Economics excerpt from today’s Sevens Report, which focuses on the most important financial news and takeaways for investors, financial advisors, and CPA’s, last week and this week.

Even uber-dove Lael Brainard supported potentially hiking in March.

Last Week:

The major takeaway from the economic data and Fed speak last week is that because of continued strong data and hawkish Fed speak, a March rate hike now is expected by the markets. Probability (according to Fed Fund futures) of a rate hike on March 15 rose from just over 20% two weeks ago, to over 70% at the end of this week… and that was a legitimate surprise for markets.

The reason that change didn’t cause a pullback in stocks is simple. Economic data last week showed continued acceleration in growth and inflation, and as such that helped cushion the blow from the increased rate hike expectations.

To that point, there were three big numbers from last week and they all beat estimates. February ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.7 vs. (E) 56.4, February ISM Non Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.6 vs. (E) 56.5. And, the core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) rose 0.3% in February, the biggest monthly increase since January 2016. While the core PCE Price Index rose 1.7% yoy, same as January, the headline PCE Price Index rose 1.9% yoy, just below the Fed’s 2% target and the highest level since February 2013!

Not every economic data point was strong last week (Pending Home Sales missed estimates as did Core Durable Goods. And, headline revised Q1 GDP was a touch light at 1.9% vs. (E) 2.1%). Still, the good data handily outweighed the bad data.

Bigger picture, it’s hard to understate how important continued good economic data has been for markets in 2017. Strong data has helped buy Washington more time on corporate tax cuts, and now it’s helping to cushion the blow from a potentially more hawkish Fed. Strong economic data continues to be the unsung hero of the 2017 stock rally, and it needs to continue given the increasingly bleak policy outlook, and potentially a more hawkish Fed. Frankly, watching and correctly interpreting economic data hasn’t been this important in years.

Looking at Fed speak from last week, it was almost universally hawkish. Clearly the Fed is trying to pave the road for a March rate hike. Fed officials Williams, Dudley and Powell all signaled that a rate hike could come in March, and even uber-dove Lael Brainard supported potentially hiking in March.
Then, as if there was any doubt left by the end of last week, on Friday Fed Chair Yellen basically said that if the jobs report is in line, the Fed is hiking rates (her exact words were more general, and a bit more eloquent, but that was her point).

Bottom line, the Fed appears to be sticking to its promise of three rate hikes in 2017, with the first likely coming in 10 days.

This Week:

Are Janet Yellen and the other members of the Fed supporting more rate hikes in 2017?

Jobs reports are always important economic releases but due to the potential for a March rate hike, this jobs report is even more important than normal because it will decide whether we get a hike next Wednesday.

As usual, it’s jobs week, so that means we will get the ADP report on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday (which continue to hit levels last seen since the 1970s), and the official jobs report Friday.

I’ll do my normal “Goldilocks” jobs preview later this week, but the bottom line is that as long as this jobs re-port remains firm, the Fed will hike rates next week.

Outside of the jobs report, it’s actually a pretty quiet week, economically speaking.

In the US, the only other notable report is Productivity (out Wednesday). Low worker productivity has been a major downward influence on inflation, but it’s shown signs of ticking higher lately. A continuation of that trend will be slightly hawkish. Finally, looking internationally, China will be in focus as we get Trade Balance (Tuesday) and CPI/PPI Wednesday.

Data from China has been consistently decent (including last week’s February manufacturing and composite PMIs), so it’ll be a big surprise if the data suddenly turns south, but China remains a macro area to watch as any hints of a slowdown will make waves for global markets.

Bottom line, this week really is all about the jobs report. If it’s close to in line, the Fed will hike next Wednesday. And, if it’s hotter than expected, get ready for talk about more than three hikes this year (and that idea is a risk to stocks).

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If A Rate Hike Is Expected, Why Aren’t Rates and the Dollar Higher? March 3, 2017

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Get the simple talking points you need to impress clients and prospects from the Sevens Report. Here is an excerpt from today’s full report.

If A Rate Hike Is Expected, Why Aren’t Rates and the Dollar Higher? 

If a rate hike is expected, why isn’t the dollar index higher?

That’s a fair question to ask, given two weeks ago there was no expectation of a May rate hike. Then, a week ago, there was no expectation of a March rate hike. Now, a March hike is fully expected.

Yet despite that relatively quick shift, as mentioned the Dollar Index still isn’t materially above 102, and still not close to the recent 103 high. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield is still decently below 2.60%.

The reasons we haven’t seen greater rallies in the dollar or yields are twofold.

First, a rate hike is not a foregone conclusion because of the jobs report next Friday. If it’s disappointing then a May hike makes more sense.

Second, the market still doesn’t believe the Fed is materially more hawkish. So, even if the Fed hikes now, the market still expects just three hikes the remainder of the year, which is what the Fed said in December.

The point is, the currency and bond markets still haven’t fully priced in a March hike yet, nor have they accepted the existence of a “hawkish.” Fed. However, if that jobs number is strong I believe we’ll see further upside in the dollar and yields.

But the big jumps in both will come when the market realizes the Fed is more hawkish than it currently expects, and that likely won’t happen until we see more inflation or proof of actual fiscal stimulus.

Regardless, barring an economic set back the trend higher in the dollar and rates is close to resuming, and investors should be positioned accordingly.

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