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One of the more important lessons I’ve learned

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One of the more important lessons I’ve learned: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

High Yield Bonds May Be Sending an Ominous Message, Says One Analyst

One of the more important lessons I’ve learned in my two-plus decades of watching markets is that bond markets can (and often do) lead stock markets. That’s why we watch bonds so closely. A recent technical breakdown in the high-yield ETF JNK [SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF] has caught our attention.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on October 25th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Goldilocks data that’s in-line with expectations is the best outcome

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Goldilocks data that’s in-line with expectations is the best outcome: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Yahoo Finance

S&P 500 Sees First Gain This Week as Tesla Up 22%: Markets Wrap

“Goldilocks data that’s in-line with expectations (so not too good or too bad) is the best outcome for a continued rebound in stocks and bonds,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article on Yahoo Finance published on October 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Growth and inflation have been firmer than expected

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Growth and inflation have been firmer than expected: Sevens Report Founder Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

Why U.S. stock market’s slump on rising Treasury yields may be short-lived

While U.S. fiscal concerns tied to a potential Republican sweep in the upcoming election may be behind the 10-year Treasury yield’s rise, “it’s much more likely the 10-year yield has risen to three-month highs because growth and inflation have been firmer than expected,” according to a note Wednesday from Sevens Report Research.

“Economic growth since the Fed rate cut has been almost universally better than expected,” including the September jobs report, retail sales, data measuring the services sector and estimates from Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, the note said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on October 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Yesterday’s “Inside Day” Means for Markets

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What Yesterday’s “Inside Day” Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Yesterday’s Inside Day Means for Markets
  • Takeaways From Oil’s Reaction to Israel’s Retaliatory Air Strikes

Futures are flat this morning while global markets rallied modestly overnight amid quiet news flow as traders look ahead to multiple important catalysts looming over the next week.

Economically, data was largely encouraging overnight as the Japanese Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.5% while the German GfK Consumer Climate Index rose to -18.3 vs. (E) -20.5, however, neither report meaningfully impacted markets.

Looking ahead to the U.S. session, there are several noteworthy economic releases today beginning with a housing market report, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 5.2%), before we the first labor market report of this critical jobs week, JOLTS (E: 7.9 million), and finally Consumer Confidence (E: 99.1).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The 7-yr auction is notable because soft demand in past auction have roiled bond markets and sparked volatility in equities, something to watch for today.

In corporate news, this critical week of earnings begins in earnest today with consumer-focused companies including PYPL ($1.08), MCD ($3.18), and BP ($0.78) reporting before the bell while tech giants AMD ($0.92) and GOOG ($1.83) report after the close along with credit card staple V ($2.58).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why the Next Two Weeks Are So Important For This Market

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Why the Next Two Weeks Are So Important For This Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Next Two Weeks Are So Important For This Market
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Magnificent Seven Earnings and Important Economic Data
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday

Futures are sharply higher following two market-positive geo-political.

In the Mid-East, the Israeli’s response to the Iranian missile attacks was smaller than expected and is viewed as a de-escalation, as oil is down 6% on falling geo-political risks.

In Japan, the ruling LDP party lost its majority in Parliament and looming political gridlock should further delay any BOJ rate hikes (Japanese stocks rose nearly 2% on the news).

Today there are no notable economic reports but as long as oil keeps dropping, the early rally should continue. Finally, earnings season continues and some reports we’ll be watching today include: ON (0.97), F (0.49), WM ($1.86).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Are High Yield Bonds Breaking Down?

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Why Are High Yield Bonds Breaking Down?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are High Yield Bonds Breaking Down?
  • More Goldilocks Economic Data

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum from Thursday’s rally and following a night of generally solid earnings and economic data.

Economically, the German IFO Business Expectations survey was better than expected (87.3 vs. (E) 86.7) boosting EU economic sentiment.

Earnings were the solid as the majority of companies posted good results (including COF, DECK and others).

Today the key report is September Durable Goods (E: -1.0%) and markets will want to see more in-line data to continue to imply a soft landing and two additional rate cuts in 2024.  We also have one Fed speaker, Collins (11:00 a.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

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 Boeing’s loss this quarter is breathtaking: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

Boeing (BA) Plummets on Double Earnings Miss

The size of Boeing’s (BA) loss this quarter is “breathtaking,” says Tom Essaye, going on to call the numbers “horrific.” But, he adds, what’s important is how well they execute on their recovery plan. Nicolas Owens notes the recent machinist strike cost Boeing billions of dollars, and that the new CEO is looking for “fundamental culture change.”

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on October 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Barron’s Senior Managing Editor and Deputy Editor speak with Tom Essaye

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Semiconductor stocks have cycle-leading characteristics: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, interviewed on Barron’s Live

Talking Markets with Sevens’ Report Tom Essaye

Barron’s Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Deputy Editor Ben Levisohn speak with Tom Essaye, Founder and President of Sevens Report about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks.

Tom Essaye: Absolutely. So the number one message we’re trying to convey in the Sevens Report is for investors to really stay focused on economic growth. And the reason I say that is because if growth can’t hold up, then we have to talk about this rally potentially ending in a very uncomfortable way. And for those of us who have been in the markets for a long time, at least at the start of this century, we’ve seen that happen a few times and it’s very painful. And if you think about investing, those are really the types of markets we want to avoid. So with the Fed cutting rates, we now know that if growth rolls over, they will not be able to cut fast enough to prevent any sort of a slowdown. So to use the analogy, the die has been cast to a point. Now the Fed is cutting and we must see if growth holds up. Everything that’s going on around growth, so how many cuts are they going to have in 2024? What’s going to happen with the election? Is the Chinese stimulus going to be enough? All of those are ancillary issues, but the main issue is growth. Because if growth rolls over, now we have to talk about that being a rally-killing event and those are the big events we want everyone to be able to avoid.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s interview published on MarketWatch on October 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

 

How Bullish Are Investors? (The Answer May Surprise You)

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How Bullish Are Investors? (The Answer May Surprise You): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Bullish Are Investors?  (The Answer May Surprise You)

Futures are modestly higher following a night of solid earnings and mixed economic data.

TSLA is rallying 11% pre-market after posting stronger than expected earnings and that’s helping futures rally.

Economically, EU and UK flash PMIs were mixed but, on balance, Goldilocks enough to support a bounce in stocks.

Today focus will shift from earnings to economic data and the important reports today are:  Jobless Claims (E: 247K), Oct. Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.6) and the Oct. Flash Services PMI (E: 55.0).  Goldilocks data that’s in-line with expectations (so not too good or too bad) is the best outcome for a continued rebound in stocks and bonds today.

We also have one Fed speaker today, Hammack at 8:45 a.m. ET, and some notable earnings including UPS ($1.65), AAL ($0.13) and COF ($3.70).  But, barring any major surprises they shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Yields Are Suddenly Surging

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Why Yields Are Suddenly Surging: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Rising Yields: Is it Growth, the Fed, or Fiscal Worries?
  • Chart: Market Based Inflation Expectations Hit 4-Month Highs

Futures are under pressure again this morning as the 10-Yr yield continues to edge further beyond 4.20%, the highest readings since July, while traders await more important earnings releases today and into the weekend.

Economically, Taiwan’s Industrial Production index, which includes the nation’s critical semiconductor output, slowed to 11.22% in September from a lower revised 12.54% rise in August signaling a potential slowdown in high-tech, AI-focused chips in H2’24.

Today, there is one economic report due out: Existing Home Sales (E: 3.90 million) but unless it is meaningfully “hot” it should not have a major impact on markets (although a cool report that influences less hawkish money flows would be well received by equity markets).

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers to watch: Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET) and Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET) from which markets will look for a less-hawkish, more accommodative tone than the recent “higher-for-longer” policy rate chatter.

Finally, earnings season continues with several notable companies reporting quarterly results including BA ($-10.34), KO ($0.74), and T ($0.59) before the open, and TSLA ($0.58), IBM ($2.27), and TMUS ($2.34) after the close.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.