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Economic Data Rekindles Stagflation Fears

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Economic Data Rekindles Stagflation Fears: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Data Rekindles Stagflation Fears
  • Durable Goods Orders Decline Sharply
  • Continuing Jobless Claims Hit Multi-Year High
  • Consumer Sentiment Reveals Rising Inflation Worries

Futures are little changed in thin trading following the Thanksgiving holiday. This comes as investors digest mixed economic data from Europe and the new Chinese stimulus efforts aimed at shoring up the nation’s embattled real estate sector.

Economically, German GDP fell -0.4% vs. (E) -0.3% Y/Y. However, the Eurozone PMI Composite Flash firmed to 47.1 vs. (E) 46.7 which helped ease some concerns about an imminent, sharp drop off in economic growth in the EU.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on the one potentially market-moving economic report due this morning: PMI Composite Flash (E: 50.3) as there are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions scheduled for the day.

The NYSE will close early today at 1:00 p.m. ET in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.

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Economic Data Rekindles Stagflation Fears

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One Potential Catalyst That Could Shake Up Markets

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One Potential Catalyst That Could Shake Up Markets: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Begin Holiday-Shortened Trading Week With a Pause

“One potential catalyst that could shake up markets today is the 20-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as weak results could trigger a rebound in yields, especially given fading attendance this week and subsequently less liquid market conditions across asset classes,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

In the absence of major data that could shift the narrative, investors will be watching key earnings reports like Nvidia on Tuesday. Bond yields will also be in focus.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on November 20th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

One Potential Catalyst

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FOMC Meeting Minutes Takeaways

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FOMC Meeting Minutes Takeaways: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes Takeaways (Dovish in Hindsight)
  • Existing Home Sales Data Offers Mixed Signals

Futures are modestly higher this morning as a pullback in oil futures is pushing bond yields lower while investors digest a volatile reaction to mostly positive NVDA earnings.

Economically, U.K. CBI Industrial Trends saw the headline Orders Balance fall -35% vs. (E) -25% in November which is driving dovish money flows this morning.

Today’s economic calendar is a busy one with Durable Goods Orders (E: -3.2%), Jobless Claims (E: 225K), and Consumer Sentiment (E: 60.5, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 4.4%) all due to be released before 10:00 a.m. ET.

There are no Fed speakers today so markets will trade off of the data. If the reports are largely in line, expect mostly sideways price action with the Thanksgiving Day break looming, however, hawkish or dovish surprises will still move markets despite thin attendance and low volumes.

The Treasury will hold auctions for 4-week and 8-week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET. While auctions for these securities usually don’t move markets, investors are more closely watching auction results following the recent weak 30-Yr auction that roiled markets. As there is potential the outcomes impact equities in an otherwise quiet environment ahead of Thanksgiving.

FOMC Meeting Minutes Takeaways

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Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update

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Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update
  • Continuing Claims Hit 2-Year High: Chart
  • Philly Fed Survey Takeaways – More Signs of Stagflation
  • Industrial Production Confirms Slowdown in Factor Sector

Stock futures are modestly higher this morning as soft U.K. consumer spending data. Combined with an as-expected drop in EU inflation are supporting a continued bid in bond markets.

Economically, U.K. Retail Sales fell -0.3% vs. (E) +0.3%. As the Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates across the board, falling significantly from 4.3% to 2.9% y/y. Positively the “Narrow Core” figure eased to 4.2% from 4.5%.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.35 million) and barring a big surprise, the release should not move markets.

There are a handful of Fed officials speaking today with Barr & Collins, Daly, Goolsbee, and Collins again all on the schedule. If the Fed speakers stick to the same narrative (less hawkish) expect more of the same sideways, digestive trading in equities today with the threat of a continued move higher based on bullish market momentum.

Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update

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What to Tell Clients Who Are Worried About U.S. Treasuries

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What to Tell Clients Who Worry About U.S. Treasuries

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What to Tell Clients Who Are Worry About U.S. Treasuries.
  • Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news as investors look ahead to today’s CPI report.

Politically, a “Continuing Resolution” to fund the government will be voted on in the House today and if passed, will avert a government shutdown.

Economically, the UK unemployment rate and German ZEW Business Expectations Index both beat expectations (although they aren’t moving markets).

Today focus will be on the CPI report and expectations are as follows:  CPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 3.3% y/y), Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 4.1% y/y).  Generally speaking, numbers that show core CPI is continuing to decline will be welcomed by markets. While readings that imply the decline in inflation is “stuck” or inflation is bouncing back, will likely result in declines in both stocks and bonds.

We also have several Fed speakers today including Barr, Mester, and Goolsbee. We’ll be watching for their reaction to the CPI report. If it makes them more hawkish that’s a negative and more dovish, a positive).

What to Tell Clients

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Earnings Season Takeaways

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Earnings Season Takeaways: S&P 500: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Season Takeaways (More Reasons to Expect A Growth Scare)
  • A Contrarian Case for Long Oil

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news.

Economically, Chinese CPI declined –0.2% y/y, signaling mild deflation and increasing Chinese economic concerns.

Geopolitically, the U.S. struck weapons depots in Syria in response to attacks on U.S. bases in the region and that’s slightly increasing geo-political tensions.

Today focus will remain on economic data and Fed speak. As has been the case, any data or comment that pushes the 10 year Treasury yield higher will likely weigh on stocks.

Economically, the only notable report is weekly Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and that’s slightly deteriorated over the past few weeks.  If that continues and accelerates it could be a short term tailwind for stocks.

Looking at the Fed, there are multiple speakers today but Powel (2:00 p.m. ET) is the only potential market mover.  Other speakers include: Bostic, Barkin, and O’Neill-Paese.

Earnings Season Takeaways

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Was Last Week’s Rally Legitimate?

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Was Last Week’s Rally Legitimate? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was Last Week’s Rally Legitimate?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Falling Treasury Yields Fuel More Upside in Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Is the “Growth Scare” Starting to Appear?

Futures are modestly higher on momentum from last week’s big rally, following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Economically, Euro Zone Composite PMI met expectations (46.5) while German Manufacturers’ Orders beat (0.2% vs. (E ) -1.1%) but there was a negative revision and overall, the data isn’t moving markets.

Geo-politically, Israeli forces are moving further into Gaza but so far risks of a broadening conflict remain relatively low.

Today there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Cook (11:00 a.m. ET), so look for Treasury yields to continue to drive short term trading.  If the 10-year yield continues to decline then the S&P 500 can extend last week’s rally.

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Jobs Report Preview

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Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • Post Fed Technical Levels Update

Futures are slightly lower ahead of today’s jobs report following another night of underwhelming earnings.

AAPL (down 3% pre-market) earnings underwhelmed and global shipping giant Maersk (down –6% pre-market) warned of a potentially slowing global economy and that’s modestly weighing on sentiment this morning.

EU and UK economic data overnight was sparse and largely in-line and aren’t moving markets.

Today focus will be on economic data.  Expectations for the jobs report are as follows:  Job Adds 183K, UE Rate: 3.8%, Wages: 0.3% m/m, 4.0% y/y.  Numbers at or below those readings will be welcomed as Goldilocks and likely further pressure Treasury yields (and lift stocks).

Additionally, we also get the ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0) and the key here is the number stay comfortably above 50.  Finally, there is one Fed speaker: Kashkari at 12:45 p.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.

Jobs Report Preview

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What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What the Fed Decision Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are moderately higher on momentum from Wednesday’s post-Fed rally while earnings and data were solid overnight.

Economically, Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI was slightly better than expected (43.1 vs. (E ) 43.0).

On earnings, reports were good overnight with solid reports from ALL, CLX, PYPL, QCOM and others.

Today focus will be on economic data and a big earnings report after the close.  Economically, the two notable reports are Jobless Claims (E: 213K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 0.7%).  Of the two, Unit Labor Costs are the more important number and markets will want to see an in-line or lower reading to imply receding inflation risks.

On the earnings front, there are a lot of reports today, but the highlight is clearly AAPL ($1.39) which reports after the close.  Other notable earnings include SQ ($0.47) and SBUX ($0.97).

Bottom line, if the market gets more Goldilocks data and solid earnings, this relief rally can continue. But if yields start to rise, don’t be shocked if there’s a reversal.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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Core PCE Reading Was Inline With Expectations

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Core PCE Reading Was Inline With Expectations: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

S&P 500 Joins Nasdaq in Correction Territory

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the core PCE reading was inline with expectations but didn’t eliminate the risk of inflation rebounding.

He added that Amazon and Intel’s earnings didn’t outweigh what has been a bad week overall.

“And, while there’s progress in Washington, markets won’t celebrate the Republicans being able to finally elect a speaker, and there’s still the prospect of a government shutdown looming,” Essaye added.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on October 28th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to Rally

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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