Jobs Day
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Day
- Key VIX Levels to Watch
Futures are slightly higher following the end to the dockworkers’ strike and as investors wait for the jobs report and the Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran.
The dockworkers’ strike ended Thursday night, removing a potential economic headwind.
Geopolitically, markets are still awaiting the Israeli response to Iran, but reports are pointing to a military or domestic energy target, which is a mild positive (if Israel were to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities it’d be viewed as a major escalation and we’d expect oil to surge further and be a stronger headwind on stocks).
Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 147K job-adds, 4.2% UE Rate and 3.8% wages (y/y). As long as the job adds and unemployment rate are relatively close to expectations, we should see a mostly Goldilocks reaction as that implies a soft landing and will keep the Fed on track to cut twice more this year (50 bps). The biggest risk for the market remains a very weak number.
Finally, there is also one Fed speaker today and he is part of leadership, Williams at 9:00 a.m. ET, but barring a substantial surprise, he shouldn’t move markets.
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