It’s Different This Time…Until It’s Not (Like 2000 and 2007)
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- It’s Different This Time… Until It’s Not (Like ’00 and ’07)
- Chart – Visualizing Where We Are in the Market Cycle
Stock futures are trading with a slight bias to the downside as inflation data overseas showed an uptick in price pressures ahead of the latest Fed minutes release today.
Economically, Hong Kong CPI rose to 2.7% vs. (E) 2.1% in October marking the first “warm” inflation print in months. There were several one-off factors influencing the increase in price pressures but the “hot print” was a reminder that the global inflation fight is not officially over just yet.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales (E: 3.91 million) and if it comes in strong, that could weigh on Treasuries (yields higher) and in turn pour some cold water on stocks.
There is another Treasury auction today at 1:00 p.m. ET, but this one is for 10-Yr TIPS and will likely receive less attention than yesterday’s 20-Yr Bond auction, limiting its market impact.
From there focus will turn to the release of the minutes from the November FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET. Any language that is more hawkish than the currently very dovish shift in policy expectations could also trigger a pullback in equities in thinning holiday week trading today.
Finally, although earnings season is effectively over, there is one notable release today as NVDA ($3.18), one of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap tech stocks that have led the market higher in 2023, will report results after the close.
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