Initial Thoughts on Tariff Suspension (Bullish, but not an All Clear)
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Initial Thoughts on Tariff Suspension (Bullish, but not an All Clear)
- Credit Spreads Deterioration: An Economic Warning?
Futures are sharply higher after the Court of International Trade invalidated the administration’s reciprocal tariffs.
The ruling means that most of the 2025 tariffs, including all the reciprocal tariffs and additional tariffs on China, Mexico and China, are suspended immediately.
Clearly trade headlines will dominate the news wires today in the wake of last night’s court decision, anything that is positive for tariffs will be negative for stocks and vice-versa.
Away from trade, there are several notable economic reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 230K), Revised Q1 GDP (E: -0.3%) and Pending Home Sales (E: -1.1%). Again, the stronger the data (especially for claims and Revised GDP) the better for markets.
On the Fed front, there are a few speakers today and their commentary in the wake of tariff suspension will be notable (anything that implies sooner than expected rate cuts will be bullish). Speakers today include Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (10:40 a.m. ET), Kugler (2:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (4:00 p.m. ET).
Finally, earnings remain important and names to watch today include COST ($4.25), DELL ($1.50) and MRVL ($0.44).
