Does March vs. May Really Matter?
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- Does March vs. May Really Matter?
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Retail Sales Data in Focus
U.S. futures are tracking European shares lower this morning. This is amid rising bond yields and a stronger dollar following some hawkish central banker commentary this weekend.
Economically, the German ZEW’s Economic Sentiment rose to 15.2 vs. (E) 11.7 in January. Both eased recession concerns but also weighed on the prospects for imminent Fed and ECB rate cuts in the coming months.
This weekend, several ECB officials pushed back on expectations for rate cuts in H1’24. This is resulting in more of the late 2023 dovish money flows being unwound.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -4.0) and one Fed official scheduled to speak: Waller (11:00 a.m. ET).
Earnings season also continues to pick up with several big banks due to report today: GS ($3.47), MS ($1.07), PNC ($2.99), IBKR ($1.54).
Bottom line, investors will be looking for more Goldilocks economic data in the NY Fed release and a less-hawkish tone from Waller and no bad news out of the banks reporting earnings today in order to stabilize. Otherwise the premarket weakness is likely to continue into the primary session this morning.
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