Core PCE Price Index Preview (Good, Bad & Ugly).

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Core PCE Price Index Will Mean for Markets (Good, Bad & Ugly)
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are moderately lower mostly on positioning ahead of the Core PCE Price Index release but also in reaction to disappointing EU economic data.

German GDP underwhelmed and fell –0.4% vs. (E) -0.2% while Gfk Consumer Climate also slightly missed estimates (-30.5 vs. (E) -30.4).

Today, focus will be on inflation and the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4% m/m, 4.3% y/y).  We have a full Core PCE Price Index preview in the Report, but generally speaking, if the numbers are below expectations, it’ll spark a rally, if they are around expectations that’s mostly priced in, and if Core PCE is higher than last month, prepare for a selloff.

Other data today includes Personal Incomes and Outlays (E: 1.0%, 1.2%), , New Home Sales (E: 617K) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 66.4), but barring a move in five year inflation expectations above 3% none of those reports should move markets.

Finally, we also have two Fed speakers today, Mester (10:15 a.m. ET) and Collins (1:30 p.m. ET).