What the Fed Decision Means for Markets (Bullish Short-Term but Not Long Term)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets (Bullish Short-Term but Not Long Term)

Futures are moderately lower as disappointing ORCL earnings reversed Wednesday’s post Fed rally.

ORCL posted underwhelming quarterly results (ORCL down –11% pre-market) and did little to reduce fiscal concerns, further stoking AI skepticism and weighing on tech broadly.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was Italian Unemployment which met expectations (6.1%).

Today focus will be on economic data via Initial Jobless Claims (E: 220k) and an in-line number will be generally positive for markets as it implies solid growth.  Beyond economic data, important earnings loom after the close including, in order of importance:  AVGO ($1.49), LULU ($2.22), COST ($4.26) and RH ($2.13).  Solid AVGO earnings to help offset ORCL disappointment would help the market finish the week strong.

 

Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update
  • October JOLTS Takeaways

Futures are slightly lower while global stocks are mixed after a quiet night of news as today’s Fed decision comes into focus.

Economically, Chinese CPI met estimates of +0.7% Y/Y in November while PPI fell -2.2% vs. (E) -2.0% Y/Y.

Today, there is one economic report: Q3 Employment Cost Index (E: 0.9% m/m, 3.7% y/y) and one Treasury auction for 4-Month Bills (11:30 a.m. ET).

However, the main market focus will be the Fed today with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) both scheduled for the mid-afternoon.

Investors will be eyeing the Fed with hopes of a not-too-hawkish-cut, and if delivered, the S&P 500 could make a run at all-time highs while anything that disappoints the doves could weigh heavily on stocks in afternoon trade.

Outside the Fed, earnings season continues with CHWY ($0.12), ORCL ($1.29), ADBE ($4.39), and PL ($-0.07) reporting Q3 results. Investors will be keenly focused on the two big tech names specifically (ORCL and ADBE) for fresh insight on AI-industry guidance, and the stronger the reports the better for equity markets into year-end.

 

FOMC Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

Equity futures are modestly higher thanks to a steadying bond market and better than feared economic data as trader-focus shifts to the December Fed meeting which begins today (decision/press-conference tomorrow).

Looking ahead to today’s session, there was one economic report early this morning, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which unexpectedly rose from 98.2 to 99.0 vs. (E) 98.0, and that is helping ease lingering worries about the current health of the economy.

Beyond the NFIB, we will receive one more report today: JOLTS (E: 7.2 million) shortly after the open and with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Fed policy, a surprise on the headline or details could move markets ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement.

There are no Fed speakers as the December meeting gets underway today, however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and any reaction in bonds is likely to move equity markets.

Finally, there are a handful of earnings releases today including: AZO ($32.24), CPB ($0.73), ASO ($1.00), and CASY ($4.92) and investors will be looking for continued strength, particularly from any tech-related companies.\

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter and Technicals

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2025 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free), or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report research offering), please email: info@sevensreport.com.

 

An Important Week for Two Pillars of the Rally

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Important Week for Two Pillars of the Rally
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Fed Policy and AI News Fuel Push Markets to New Highs?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Labor Market Updates (Is It Stable?)

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet weekend of news and as investors look forward to important Fed and AI events later this week.

Investor focus, as we start the week, is on Wednesday’s Fed decision, ORCL/AVGO earnings and a Chat GPT update.

Economically, foreign data was better than expected as Chinese exports beat estimates (rising 5.9% vs. (E) 4.0%) as did German Industrial Production (1.8% vs. (E) 0.1%).

This week will be a busy one but today should be relatively quiet in the markets as there are no notable economic reports and just one earnings report after the close, TOL ($4.87).

 

Sevens Report – Technical Targets: Santa Rally vs. Grinch Selloff

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Targets: Santa Rally vs. Grinch Selloff

Futures are slightly higher mostly on momentum following a generally quiet night of news.

Japanese stocks declined 1% and gave back some of Thursday’s rally on more hawkish chatter, as a rate hike later this month remains a distinct possibility.

Economic data was mixed as Japanese Household Spending fell more than expected (-3.% vs. (E) 1.5%) while German Manufacturers’ Orders beat estimates (1.5% vs. E) 0.5%).

Today focus will be on economic data and the most important report will be the September Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y).  This is a delayed report from the government shutdown and it’s “old” data at this point, but it’s also the first major inflation report markets have seen in months and for this rally to continue, we’ll need to see in-line data that does not hint at any sudden rise in inflation (which could jeopardize another Fed rate cut).

Other economic reports today include Consumer Sentiment (E: 52.0) and Consumer Credit (E: $9.4B), but unless there’s a major surprise, that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair Isn’t Automatically Bullish

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair Isn’t Automatically Bullish (Hint: Bond Yields)

Futures are little changed despite more solid tech earnings and positive news for the yen carry trade.

Salesforce (CRM) posted stronger than expected results and continued the run of strong tech earnings this week.

In Japan, yen carry trade worries eased slightly after a strong 30-year JGB auction, which sent the Nikkei sharply higher (up more than 2%).

Today focus will be on labor market data via Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and Challenger Job Cuts (Last 153k).  Slightly underwhelming data will be again welcomed by markets as that will further boost rate cut chances (although very weak readings may stoke economic concerns).

Earnings also continue today and some reports to watch include: DG ($0.92), DOCU ($0.33) and HPE ($0.49).

 

Why Gemini Could Weigh on AI Enthusiasm

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Google’s Gemini Update Could Further Pressure AI Enthusiasm

Futures are higher on strong earnings and guidance from MRVL after the close yesterday (shares +10% premarket this morning) ahead of the release of a slew of key economic data today.

Overnight, global Composite PMI data was solid as Chinese, U.K., and Eurozone releases all topped estimates with headlines in expansion territory.

Today, there is a long list of data due out in the U.S. including the ADP Employment Report (E: 20K), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.2% m/m, 0.0% m/m), Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), and the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.1).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however there is a mid-duration Treasury Bill auction (for 4-Month securities) that could shed light on current Fed policy expectations; the more dovish the outcome/stronger the demand for the Bills, the better.

Finally, Q3 earnings continue today with results due from DLTR ($1.09), M ($-0.13), RY ($2.52), CRM ($2.15), SNOW ($-0.58), and AI ($-0.75), and investors will be looking for more strong results, particularly from the tech companies reporting today.

 

Why Is Bitcoin Still Falling?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Is Bitcoin Still Falling?
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are higher thanks to the combination of a strong Japanese government bond auction and largely as-expected EU inflation data which are both helping yields stabilize after a sharp rise to start December yesterday.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Narrow Core HICP (Core CPI equivalent) held steady at 2.4% vs. (E) 2.5% in November.

Looking into today’s session, we will get data on domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.4 million) which likely won’t have a material impact on markets unless there is a significant drop signaling a potential slowdown in consumer spending.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), and the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Markets are looking for dovish signals via strong demand for short-duration Treasuries and fresh support for a December Fed rate cut.

Finally, there are a few potentially market moving earnings releases today from some AI-sensitive companies including: MRVL ($0.58), CRWD ($0.07), and OKTA ($0.20).

 

Year-End Rally or Not? Three Events to Watch

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Year-End Rally or Not? Three Events to Watch
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can the Rebound Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Two of the “Big Three” Monthly Economic Reports This Week

Futures are moderately lower following a sharp drop in cryptocurrencies, hawkish Bank of Japan commentary and underwhelming Chinese economic data.

Bitcoin fell 5% as pressure on the crypto space increased, although there was no specific reason for the declines.

BOJ Governor Ueda told markets the BOJ would strongly consider a rate hike at its next meeting, pressuring stocks.

Economically, the Chinese non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 vs. (E) 50.1, the lowest reading in three years.

Today focus will be on the November ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.0) and the key here is stability, specifically that we do not see the PMI “fall away” from 50 and badly miss expectations (if it does, it could be signaling sudden deterioration in the manufacturing sector, which would be a negative economic surprise).

 

Mixed Messages from Jobless Claims Data

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Update: Mixed Messages from Jobless Claims Data

U.S. futures are unavailable after a “cooling issue” caused a failure at a CME data center.

Despite the lack of U.S. futures, global markets are mostly little changed and U.S. futures would likely be also, given the quiet Thanksgiving holiday.

Economically, Japanese economic data was better than expected on Thursday (Industrial Production rose 1.5% vs. (E) -0.5% and Retail Sales gained 1.7% vs. (E) 1.1%), boosting chances for a rate hike.

Today should be a typically quiet post-Thanksgiving trading day, even despite the futures issues.  U.S. markets close at 1:00 p.m.