Where Do We Stand With Tariffs (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs? (Updated 3/5/25)

Futures are higher amid risk-on global money flows after U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be scaled back as soon as today while the Ukraine-U.S. minerals deal is also seeing progress which is easing geopolitical worries.

Economically, the Eurozone Composite PMI met estimates at 50.2 while EU PPI jumped up to 1.8% vs. (E) 1.4% in January, rekindling still simmering inflation worries.

This morning is lining up to be a busy one as there are several noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic reports due to be released beginning with the February ADP Employment Report (E: 162K). Then, shortly after the open, both Factory Orders (E: 1.4%), and the February ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0) will be released.

There are no Fed speakers today, however there is a 4-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and demand for the short-duration securities could shed light on the latest shifts in Fed policy expectations.

Finally, earnings season continues with notable reports due to be released from ANF ($3.48), MRVL ($0.59), and VSCO ($2.30).

Where Is the Trump Put?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Is the Trump Put?
  • Chart – NVDA Violates Support
  • Chart – Atlanta FED GDPNow Collapses to Negative Territory
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest the latest developments in the emerging global trade war.

The Trump administration confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico went into effect overnight while tariffs on China were increased from 10% to 20%, prompting retaliatory trade policy actions from those nations which added to trade-war uncertainties.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate fell to 6.2% vs. (E) 6.3% which saw global yields rise modestly.

Looking into today’s session, there is one second-tiered economic report to watch: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.9 million) and one Fed speaker in the afternoon: Williams (2:20 p.m. ET).

Additionally, we will get quarterly earnings from more big-name retailers today which could shed further light on consumer spending trends including: TGT ($2.25), BBY ($2.40), JWN ($0.90), and ROST ($1.65).

How Real Are Stagflation Risks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Real Are Stagflation Risks?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Are Tariffs Delayed Again?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Will the “Big Three” Monthly Economic Report Confirm Slowdown Fears?

Futures are modestly higher following solid Chinese economic data and as investors await more details of the looming tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Economically, the Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 vs. (E) 49.9, implying that stimulus is starting to flow through that economy.

On tariffs, the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada start tomorrow, although markets still expect they will be delayed.

Today focus will be first on trade/tariff headlines and any delay in the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will be an obvious positive and reinforce the market’s belief that tariffs are just a negotiating tool.

Economically, the first of the “Big Three” monthly economic reports comes today via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 50.6) and the stronger that number, the better.

Are Credit Spreads Confirming Growth Worries?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Credit Spreads Confirming Growth Worries?

Futures are bouncing modestly after Thursday’s declines and following better than expected EU inflation data.

Regional German, French and Italian inflation metrics were better than expected, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut from the ECB next week.

On tariffs, there was no new news overnight, but Trump will likely speak with reporters again during/following his meeting with Zelensky later today.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and put simply, this number needs to come in at or under expectations to ease inflation anxiety and help support stocks.

On the trade front, Trump will be signing a minerals deal with Ukrainian President Zelensky this morning and while there’s nothing specific about trade on the agenda, it’s possible Trump talks about tariffs, which obviously could move markets.

Finally, we have one Fed speaker today, Barkin at 8:30 a.m. ET.

A Caveat to Recent Negative Sentiment Reports

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Caveat to Recent Negative Sentiment Reports

Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce on solid NVDA earnings and following an otherwise quiet night of news.

NVDA earnings and guidance beat estimates and the stock is slightly higher pre-market and holding yesterday’s gains (NVDA rallied 4% into the report yesterday). The results are helping to calm DeepSeek related AI fears.

Given investor’s sudden anxiety towards economic growth, the economic data over the next two days will be important.

Today, the key reports are, in order of importance: Durable Goods (E: 1.9%), Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Revised Q4 GDP (2.3%) and Pending Home Sales (E: -1.2%).  Mostly in-line numbers, especially from Durable Goods, will help push back against the “growth scare” narrative while weak readings will only increase it (and likely pressure stocks).

We also have numerous Fed speakers today including: Barkin (7:30 a.m. ET), Schmid (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (10:00 a.m. ET), Bowman (11:45 a.m. ET), Hammack (1:15 p.m. ET) and Harker (3:15 p.m. ET).  None of them are Fed leadership so their comments shouldn’t move markets materially, but if they talk about possibly having to hike rates due to high inflation, that will be a negative.

What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?
  • February Consumer Confidence Takeaways
  • Chart – Case-Shiller Home Price Index Highlights Sticky Inflation Pressures

Futures are solidly higher with mega-cap tech leading the early advance amid renewed AI optimism after Chinese AI company DeepSeek reopened access to its core interface model while investors await NVDA earnings after the close (shares up ~2.5% pre-market).

There are a slew of potential market catalysts today starting with one economic report due out shortly after the open: New Home Sales (E: 680K) and two noteworthy Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET (important for near-term Fed policy rate expectations) and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (important to gauge investor concerns about an economic slowdown).

Finally, there are a few notable consumer companies reporting earnings before the open including LOW ($1.83) and TJX ($1.16) but the biggest potential market moving catalyst of the day comes after the close with NVDA earnings ($0.84), as well as two other important tech-related earnings releases from CRM ($2.61) and SNOW ($0.18).

Four Reasons Investors Are Worried About Washington

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Investors Worried About Washington? (Four Reasons)
  • Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Adds to Growth Fears

Futures are slightly lower as most global markets declined overnight, led by Asian tech stocks, after President Trump reiterated tariff plans for Canada and Mexico and revealed new plans limiting China’s semiconductor industry.

Today, there are two housing market reports to watch: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), before the more important economic release of the day, Consumer Confidence (E: 103.0) is due to be released shortly after the opening bell.

Following a string of weak economic reports in recent days, the market will be looking for some more upbeat and stable growth and consumer confidence figures today to help equities stabilize.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker in the early afternoon: Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to move bond yields and impact equity market trading.

Finally, earnings season continues with a few notable companies reporting today including: HD ($3.04), KDP ($0.57), AMC ($-0.16), AXON ($1.41), and INTU ($2.58).

Why Stocks Dropped Last Week (New Reason)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped Last Week (New Reason)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  A Big Week for Tech & Inflation (NVDA Earnings Wed, Core PCE Price Index Friday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Does Data This Week Increase Growth Concerns?

Futures are enjoying a solid bounce following a mostly quiet weekend of news and ahead of a catalyst filled week.

Economically, data from Europe was solid as German Ifo Business Expectations were slightly better than expected (85.4 vs. (E) 85.0) while Euro Zone Core HICP (their CPI) met expectations (2.7% y/y).

Politically, German elections went largely as expected with center-right parties CDU/CSU winning while the far-right AfD party slightly underperformed vs. expectations.

Today there are no notable economic reports so barring any surprise policy headlines on tariffs or trade, it should be a relatively quiet start to the week (although it will get busier as the week progresses).

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

Futures are little changed following slightly disappointing economic data overnight.

EU and UK flash PMIs underwhelmed as the EU Services PMI declined to 50.7 vs. (51.5) while the UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 vs. (E) 48.5, underscoring the economic headwinds facing the EU and UK.

Today focus will stay on economic data and the two key reports are the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.3) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0).  Markets will want to see in-line to slightly weak readings but most importantly, no big jumps in the price indices like we saw in Empire and Philly earlier this week.

Other notable events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.16 million) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 68.0) as well as two Fed speakers:  Jefferson (11:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:30 a.m. ET).

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Latest Bitcoin & Crypto Insights (New Regular Series)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Latest Bitcoin & Crypto Insights (New Regular Series)
  • FOMC Minutes:  Why Markets Still Expect a Rate Cut in 2025

Futures are slightly lower mostly on digestion following a generally quiet night of news.

Economically, the only notable report was German PPI, which was better than expected (-1.2% vs. (E) -0.5% y/y).

Politically, there has been little progress on a debt ceiling extension (March 12th deadline) and markets are starting to notice.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak.  The key economic reports today are Philly Fed (E: 22.7) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and readings that are right around expectations will be the best case for markets.  For Philly Fed specifically, investors will be watching the price indices and if they leap higher, like we saw in Tuesday’s Empire State Manufacturing Index, that will increase inflation concerns and likely weigh on stocks.

Turning to the Fed, there are multiple speakers today including Goolsbee (9:35 a.m. ET), Musalem (12:05 p.m. ET), Barr (2:30 p.m. ET) and Kugler (5:00 p.m. ET) but as long as they don’t imply the Fed is done cutting rates, they shouldn’t impact markets.