Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI Takeaways
  • Oil Update – Prices Resilient Despite Three Bearish Catalysts

Futures are little changed as global traders digest yesterday’s soft U.S. economic data after a mostly quiet night of news.

Economically, China’s Services PMI rose from 50.7 to 51.1, meeting estimates while Eurozone PPI favorably cooled to 0.7% from 1.9%.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports to watch including International Trade in Goods (E: $-118.1B), Jobless Claims (E: 235K), and Productivity & Costs (E: -0.8%, 5.7%). However, with the May Jobs Report looming large tomorrow, it will take a significant surprise in one of these reports to materially move markets.

There are also multiple Fed speakers again today including Kugler (12:00 p.m. ET), Harker (1:30 p.m. ET), and Schmid (1:30 p.m. ET). Any dovish commentary regarding yesterday’s soft economic data is likely to be well received, supporting both stocks and bonds.

Finally, there are a handful of late-season earnings releases this afternoon: AVGO ($1.35), LULU ($2.59), DOCU ($0.25), BF.B ($0.36), and WOOF ($-0.05). AVGO is particularly in focus as an increasingly important semiconductor manufacturer and its quarterly results could move the broader tech space on a material beat/miss.

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – A Rise in Job Openings Signals Resilient Labor Market

Stock futures have reversed from overnight losses to trade with moderate gains in the pre-market largely thanks to upbeat composite PMI data in Europe.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Final Composite PMI came in at 50.2 vs. (E) 49.5 mostly due to a better than expected Services Index component which firmed to 49.7 vs. the Flash print of 48.9.

Today, there are two more noteworthy domestic economic releases due to be released; the May ADP Employment Report (E: 110K) ahead of the open, and the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.0) shortly after the bell. Investors will be looking for more evidence of labor market resilience in the ADP release and evidence of strong consumer spending and preferably cooling inflation pressures in the ISM data.

There are two more Fed officials speaking today: Bostic & Cook (8:30 a.m. ET) but the narrative has not materially changed since the May Fed meeting and isn’t expected to as the Fed is set to remain data-dependent for the foreseeable future.

Finally, there are a few more noteworthy earnings releases today that could impact markets including DLTR ($1.19), FIVE ($0.83), and PVH ($2.23). As retail and consumer focused brands, any mention of weakness in consumer spending trends could pour cold water on the early June rally.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: May Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: Hard Data Still (Mostly) Hanging in There
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways

Futures sold off overnight as a notably weak Chinese factory report offset a favorably cooler-than-anticipated EU CPI print.

China’s May Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 vs. (E) 50.7 while EU Core CPI encouragingly fell from 2.7% to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.5% last month.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are a few noteworthy economic reports including Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.4M), Factory Orders (E: -3.0%),  and JOLTS (E: 7.1 million). The market could be particularly sensitive to a soft Job Openings print as a drop below 7 million could stoke worries about the health of the labor market ahead of Friday’s May jobs report.

Additionally, there are a handful of Fed speakers but unless any of them deviate from the “wait-and-see” narrative of late, their market impact should be limited. Speakers today include Goolsbee (12:45 p.m. ET), Cook (1:00 p.m. ET), and Logan (3:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, some late season earnings continue to trickle in with DG ($1.47), NIO ($-0.22), CRWD ($-0.28), and HPE ($0.28) all reporting Q1 results today.

With the ISM Services (tomorrow) and BLS jobs report (Friday) still looming large, today should be a relatively quiet day for markets as traders digest the big May rally however risks of profit taking exist if a negative headline crosses the wires.

Tariff/Trade-War Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs and How Important Are They for Markets?
  • Weekly Economic Preview: ISM Data and May Jobs Report in Focus

Futures are lower with global markets amid a combination of escalating trade war tensions and an unexpected intensification in the Russia-Ukraine war over the weekend.

President Trump doubled tariffs on steel to 50% which dampens hopes for an EU trade deal while rhetoric between the U.S. and China deteriorated since Friday’s close.

Ukraine surprisingly struck Russian air base targets over the weekend in what military officials said was their large drone attack so far in the multi-year conflict. The escalating geopolitical tensions has reignited a fear bid in oil with futures prices up nearly 4% this morning.

Today kicks off a busy week of economic data with the most important release coming just after the open via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.5). Construction Spending (E: 0.2%) will also be released after the open but is less likely to impact markets.

There are also multiple noteworthy Fed officials scheduled to speak today including, Logan (10:15 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (12:45 p.m. ET), and most importantly Powell (1:00 p.m. ET). Any fresh insight on policy plans has the potential to materially move markets (hawkish commentary would influence risk-aversion while dovish comments would support a continuation of the May rally).

Assessing Market Performance from the April Lows

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Assessing Market Performance from the April Lows

Futures are slightly lower following a night of mixed earnings and economic data.

Earnings after the bell were decidedly mixed with some positives (MCHP, DELL) being offset by negative results (NTAP, GAP) and earnings are slightly weighing on futures.

Economically, Italian CPI beat estimates (1.9% vs. (E) 2.0%), further increasing expectations for a rate cut.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and a weaker than expected number will be positive for stocks and bonds as it would push back on inflation concerns and make a Fed rate cut later this year slightly more likely.

The other notable events today include two more economic reports, Consumer Sentiment (E: 52.0) and the Chicago PMI (E: 45.0) and a few Fed speakers: Bostic (12:20 p.m. ET), Daly (4:45 p.m. ET).

Initial Thoughts on Tariff Suspension (Bullish, but not an All Clear)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Initial Thoughts on Tariff Suspension (Bullish, but not an All Clear)
  • Credit Spreads Deterioration:  An Economic Warning?

Futures are sharply higher after the Court of International Trade invalidated the administration’s reciprocal tariffs.

The ruling means that most of the 2025 tariffs, including all the reciprocal tariffs and additional tariffs on China, Mexico and China, are suspended immediately.

Clearly trade headlines will dominate the news wires today in the wake of last night’s court decision, anything that is positive for tariffs will be negative for stocks and vice-versa.

Away from trade, there are several notable economic reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 230K), Revised Q1 GDP (E: -0.3%) and Pending Home Sales (E: -1.1%).  Again, the stronger the data (especially for claims and Revised GDP) the better for markets.

On the Fed front, there are a few speakers today and their commentary in the wake of tariff suspension will be notable (anything that implies sooner than expected rate cuts will be bullish).  Speakers today include Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (10:40 a.m. ET), Kugler (2:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (4:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings remain important and names to watch today include COST ($4.25), DELL ($1.50) and MRVL ($0.44).

What Is the “TACO Trade?”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The “TACO Trade” and Why It Matters to You
  • Durable Goods Orders Show Cracks Emerging in Business Spending
  • Consumer Confidence Rebounds – Chart

Equity markets initially traded with a risk-off tone overnight thanks to a rise in global bond yields on the back of a soft Japanese government debt auction, but futures are back to flat ahead of the Fed minutes this afternoon and NVDA earnings after the close.

There is one lesser followed economic report today: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -9.0), but barring a major surprise, the releasee is unlikely to materially move markets given other catalyst in focus.

One of those catalysts will be the Fed minutes release this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. ET as traders will look for any fresh insight as to when the next rate cut will occur or clarity on the FOMC’s outlook for the economy/inflation in the quarters ahead.

As mentioned, a soft JGB auction overnight weighed on global risk assets. As such, today’s Treasury auctions, the first for 4-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and the second for 5-Yr Notes at 1:00 p.m. ET both have potential to impact equity trading today (recall it was a 20-Yr auction that sparked last week’s mid-week selloff).

Finally, one of the last major earnings releases of the season will hit after the close with NVDA (E: $0.80) reporting post-market. A few other noteworthy late-season reports today include:  DKS ($3.37), ANF ($1.36), M ($0.14), CRM ($1.87), and ELF ($0.57).

Reminder of Market Risks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Reminder of the (Many) Risks

Futures are higher with global equities while overseas bonds are stabilizing amid easing U.S.-EU trade tensions.

President Trump delayed the implementation date of proposed 50% tariffs on the EU, which were first threatened Friday morning, from June 1 to July 9 which is being well received by global investors and supporting broad risk-on money flows across asset classes.

There were no material or market-moving economic reports overnight but there are several key reports to watch in the U.S. today including Durable Goods Orders (E: -8.1%), the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.3%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 87.3).

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers to watch: Barkin (9:30 a.m. ET), Williams (8:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, all of which could shed light on Fed policy expectations for the months ahead.

Finally, a few more late season earnings releases continue to trickle in with PDD ($2.25), AZO ($36.78), and BNS ($1.14) all reporting today but the market impact should be limited.

Volatility Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Volatility Update

Futures are slightly lower following a mostly quiet night of news ahead of the holiday weekend.

Politically, the Supreme Court issued a ruling overnight that implies the President does not have the authority to fire the Fed Chair and this is a general positive for markets (it mostly removes Trump firing Powell as a threat).

Economically, data was better than expected as UK retail sales and German GDP both beat estimates.

Today focus will be on New Home Sales (E: 700K) and there is one Fed speaker, Cook (12:00 p.m. ET).  But, given the looming holiday weekend, expect trading to be quiet barring any surprises.

What Is the “Big, Beautiful Bill” and Why Is It Impacting Markets?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is the “Big, Beautiful Bill” and Why Is It Impacting Markets?

Futures are slightly higher as markets digest Wednesday’s yield driven selloff.

Economically, EU and UK flash PMIs disappointed.  The EU flash PMI badly missed expectations (49.5 vs. (E) 50.9) while the UK reading was a slight miss (49.4 vs. (E) 49.5).

Today focus will be on economic data as well as political progress.  Economically, the key reports today are the May Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.8) and Flash Services PMI (E: 50.6) as well as Jobless Claims (E: 230K).  As has been the case, the stronger those numbers, the better as they will continue to push back on stagflation fears.  There is also one Fed speaker, Williams at 2:00 p.m. ET, but he’s unlikely to move markets.

Finally, on the political front, the deficit implications of the “Big Beautiful Bill” are pushing Treasury yields higher and if the bill advances out of the House and is viewed as deficit negative, it will send yields higher again and pressure stocks.