2024 Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch in Q1
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- 2024 Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch in 2024
- Jobs Day
Futures are modestly lower following more evidence of a bounce back in inflation in the EU and ahead of today’s jobs report.
The EU December HICP (their CPI) rose less than expected (2.9% vs. 3.0% y/y) but still increased from the 2.4% Nov. reading and that’s further reducing ECB rate cut expectations and weighing on global markets.
Today focus will be on economic data and there are two potentially market moving reports: The jobs report and the ISM Services PMI.
Regarding the jobs report, expectations are as follows: Job Adds: 158K, UE Rate: 3.8%, Avg Hourly Earnings: 0.3% m/m, 3.9% y/y. The key here is moderation in the data and a job adds number above 200k or Avg. Hourly Earnings much above 4.0% will further push back on rate cut expectations and likely weigh on stocks.
Looking at the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.7), the key here is that the number stays solidly above 50 (which it should). A drop below 50 will increase slowdown worries (and weigh on stocks). Finally, there is one Fed speaker today, Barkin at 1:30 p.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.
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