What the New Low in FRC Means for Markets

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the New Low in FRC Means for Markets
  • Chart Update:  Possible Head and Shoulders
  • The Most Consistent Market Indicator Right Now (It’s in Bonds)

Futures are modestly higher thanks to more solid tech earnings overnight and some small political progress.

Meta (FB) joined MSFT and GOOGL in posting strong earnings and the stock was up more than 10% overnight.

Politically, House Republicans (barely) passed their debt ceiling bill and now more substantial negotiations can begin with the White House.

Today focus will remain on data and earnings.  Economically, the key report today is Jobless Claims (E: 249K), although the financial media will focus more on Q1 GDP (E: 2.0%).  But, Q1 GDP is a stale number at this point (it covers Jan-Mar) compared to jobless claims, which will tell us if we’re seeing more deterioration in the labor market.  Any move towards, or modestly above, 250k would further hint at labor market deterioration (which would be a mild positive for markets).

Turning to earnings, this remains the busiest week for results and key reports we’re watching today include:  AMZN (E: $0.21), INTC ($0.16), CAT ($3.79), AAL ($0.04), MA ($2.71), MRK ($1.34) and MO ($1.19).