Ukraine Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line: Real Focus Remains on the Fed and Growth
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Rising Threat of Stagflation?

Stock futures are down slightly this morning but well off the overnight lows as traders digest the latest geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine.

Russian President Putin recognized the independence of two “breakaway” regions in eastern Ukraine yesterday, but the risk of a full scale invasion of Ukraine still remains low.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released including: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.0%), PMI Composite Flash (E: 51.9), and Consumer Confidence (E: 110.0). There is also one Fed speaker on the schedule: Bostic (3:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and with the underlying market focus still on future Fed policy, a soft outcome (hawkish) could add to the current geopolitically fueled market volatility.

Regarding Ukraine, investors will await the announcement of new sanctions from the west against Russia, and depending on how severe they are, it could add to the selling pressure on stocks today. Additionally, as of now, Blinken and Lavrov are still scheduled to meet this week but if that meeting is canceled that will suggest a more severe conflict is imminent, resulting in more risk-off money flows.