Is a Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Bearish Gamechanger? (Updated)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is a Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Bearish Gamechanger?  (Updated)

Futures are enjoying a modest bounce as the headlines on Russia/Ukraine turned a bit more positive overnight.

The U.S. Secretary of State and his Russian counterpart will meet next week, signaling diplomatic efforts to de-escalate will continue.

Economic data was sparse but generally solid as Japanese CPI met expectations while UK Retail Sales beat estimates.

Today’s focus will again be on geopolitical headlines, and any reports of de-escalation will help stocks recoup more of Thursday’s losses, while negative headlines will likely erase these early gains.

Beyond the Russia/Ukraine situation, we do get three Fed speakers today, two of which are Fed leadership:  Williams (11:00 a.m. ET) and Brainard (1:30 p.m. ET). If they make hawkish commentary (especially Brainard) look for stocks to drop again.  Fed President Evans (10:15 a.m. ET) also speaks this morning.

Finally, on the economic front, we get one report today, Existing Home Sales (E: 6.08M), but that shouldn’t move markets.