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New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – A Rise in Job Openings Signals Resilient Labor Market

Stock futures have reversed from overnight losses to trade with moderate gains in the pre-market largely thanks to upbeat composite PMI data in Europe.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Final Composite PMI came in at 50.2 vs. (E) 49.5 mostly due to a better than expected Services Index component which firmed to 49.7 vs. the Flash print of 48.9.

Today, there are two more noteworthy domestic economic releases due to be released; the May ADP Employment Report (E: 110K) ahead of the open, and the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.0) shortly after the bell. Investors will be looking for more evidence of labor market resilience in the ADP release and evidence of strong consumer spending and preferably cooling inflation pressures in the ISM data.

There are two more Fed officials speaking today: Bostic & Cook (8:30 a.m. ET) but the narrative has not materially changed since the May Fed meeting and isn’t expected to as the Fed is set to remain data-dependent for the foreseeable future.

Finally, there are a few more noteworthy earnings releases today that could impact markets including DLTR ($1.19), FIVE ($0.83), and PVH ($2.23). As retail and consumer focused brands, any mention of weakness in consumer spending trends could pour cold water on the early June rally.

Tariff/Trade-War Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs and How Important Are They for Markets?
  • Weekly Economic Preview: ISM Data and May Jobs Report in Focus

Futures are lower with global markets amid a combination of escalating trade war tensions and an unexpected intensification in the Russia-Ukraine war over the weekend.

President Trump doubled tariffs on steel to 50% which dampens hopes for an EU trade deal while rhetoric between the U.S. and China deteriorated since Friday’s close.

Ukraine surprisingly struck Russian air base targets over the weekend in what military officials said was their large drone attack so far in the multi-year conflict. The escalating geopolitical tensions has reignited a fear bid in oil with futures prices up nearly 4% this morning.

Today kicks off a busy week of economic data with the most important release coming just after the open via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.5). Construction Spending (E: 0.2%) will also be released after the open but is less likely to impact markets.

There are also multiple noteworthy Fed officials scheduled to speak today including, Logan (10:15 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (12:45 p.m. ET), and most importantly Powell (1:00 p.m. ET). Any fresh insight on policy plans has the potential to materially move markets (hawkish commentary would influence risk-aversion while dovish comments would support a continuation of the May rally).

‘TACO Trade’: What to know about the term Donald Trump doesn’t want to hear again

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The term “TACO trade” took off across most media platforms on Wednesday, and if you are just now catching up and wondering what that’s all about … well, it doesn’t have a thing to do with Taco Bell.

It does have everything to do with President Donald Trump and his on-again, off-again tariff policies. And Trump is not too happy to hear it.

“But the Trump tariff dip,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said. “Essentially, Trump has proven to investors that he won’t actually follow through with draconian tariffs. As such, any sell-off following a dramatic tariff threat should be bought.”

Trump was asked about the term on Wednesday, and he claimed it was the first time he had heard of it. He also, clearly, did not appreciate it.
To read the full article from Penn Live from May 29, 2025 click here.

TACO Trump goes viral, as analyst confirms the US President does ‘chicken out’

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It didn’t take long for social media to jump on to US President Donald Trump’s latest, unedifying nickname.

Earlier this month, Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong coined an acronym to describe a popular trading strategy centered around Trump’s start-and-stop tariff policies – TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).

So does Trump always chicken out?

According to a note to subscribers on Thursday from respected Wall Street market analyst Tom Essaye, the answer is yes.

In the note, the Sevens Report Research founder pointed to Trump’s decision to exempt goods subject to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement from additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada, significantly reducing their sting. To read the full article on The New Daily from May 29, 2025 click here.

Get access to the full Sevens Report issue on this topic—plus two weeks of free, no-obligation market insights built for advisors. 📩 Start your trial here: click here.

Advisors at top firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Wells Fargo, and Raymond James already subscribe. Ready to see why?
👉 Start your quarterly subscription here: click here.

Why the ’TACO Trade’ still matters for your portfolio

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Investing.com — Over the past 48 hours, the term ‘TACO Trade’ has been widely circulated on social media and even made it to the White House. TACO is an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out”, which suggests that despite his tough talk on tariffs, he will always back down in the end.

Trump was asked about the TACO trade on Wednesday, enraging the President. “… don’t ever say – what you said, that’s a nasty question,” Trump slapped back when asked about it.

Assessing Market Performance from the April Lows

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Assessing Market Performance from the April Lows

Futures are slightly lower following a night of mixed earnings and economic data.

Earnings after the bell were decidedly mixed with some positives (MCHP, DELL) being offset by negative results (NTAP, GAP) and earnings are slightly weighing on futures.

Economically, Italian CPI beat estimates (1.9% vs. (E) 2.0%), further increasing expectations for a rate cut.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and a weaker than expected number will be positive for stocks and bonds as it would push back on inflation concerns and make a Fed rate cut later this year slightly more likely.

The other notable events today include two more economic reports, Consumer Sentiment (E: 52.0) and the Chicago PMI (E: 45.0) and a few Fed speakers: Bostic (12:20 p.m. ET), Daly (4:45 p.m. ET).

Trump Branded With Embarrassing Nickname Over Tariff Confusion

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Wall Street is beginning to understand the president’s roller-coaster foreign trade decisions with the help of a trendy acronym: TACO—or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

The TACO theory was coined earlier this month by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, adding a catchy name to the practice of loading up on stocks when Donald Trump first announces the tariffs and then selling when he ultimately backtracks on enforcing them.

In a Wednesday note obtained by Market Watch, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye insisted that Trump does, in fact, always chicken out. So far, that’s been true for enacting additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada, postponing his “reciprocal” tariff plan on dozens of countries after his “Liberation Day” announcement went south, delaying a tariff on imports from the European Union, and smashing his plan to fine China, temporarily decreasing tariffs on Chinese products to 30 percent from 145 percent. Click here to view the full article in The New Republic on May 28, 2025.

Get access to the full Sevens Report issue on this topic—plus two weeks of free, no-obligation market insights built for advisors. 📩 Start your trial here: click here.

Advisors at top firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Wells Fargo, and Raymond James already subscribe. Ready to see why?
👉 Start your quarterly subscription here: click here.

Initial Thoughts on Tariff Suspension (Bullish, but not an All Clear)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Initial Thoughts on Tariff Suspension (Bullish, but not an All Clear)
  • Credit Spreads Deterioration:  An Economic Warning?

Futures are sharply higher after the Court of International Trade invalidated the administration’s reciprocal tariffs.

The ruling means that most of the 2025 tariffs, including all the reciprocal tariffs and additional tariffs on China, Mexico and China, are suspended immediately.

Clearly trade headlines will dominate the news wires today in the wake of last night’s court decision, anything that is positive for tariffs will be negative for stocks and vice-versa.

Away from trade, there are several notable economic reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 230K), Revised Q1 GDP (E: -0.3%) and Pending Home Sales (E: -1.1%).  Again, the stronger the data (especially for claims and Revised GDP) the better for markets.

On the Fed front, there are a few speakers today and their commentary in the wake of tariff suspension will be notable (anything that implies sooner than expected rate cuts will be bullish).  Speakers today include Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (10:40 a.m. ET), Kugler (2:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (4:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings remain important and names to watch today include COST ($4.25), DELL ($1.50) and MRVL ($0.44).

Reminder of Market Risks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Reminder of the (Many) Risks

Futures are higher with global equities while overseas bonds are stabilizing amid easing U.S.-EU trade tensions.

President Trump delayed the implementation date of proposed 50% tariffs on the EU, which were first threatened Friday morning, from June 1 to July 9 which is being well received by global investors and supporting broad risk-on money flows across asset classes.

There were no material or market-moving economic reports overnight but there are several key reports to watch in the U.S. today including Durable Goods Orders (E: -8.1%), the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.3%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 87.3).

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers to watch: Barkin (9:30 a.m. ET), Williams (8:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, all of which could shed light on Fed policy expectations for the months ahead.

Finally, a few more late season earnings releases continue to trickle in with PDD ($2.25), AZO ($36.78), and BNS ($1.14) all reporting today but the market impact should be limited.

Volatility Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Volatility Update

Futures are slightly lower following a mostly quiet night of news ahead of the holiday weekend.

Politically, the Supreme Court issued a ruling overnight that implies the President does not have the authority to fire the Fed Chair and this is a general positive for markets (it mostly removes Trump firing Powell as a threat).

Economically, data was better than expected as UK retail sales and German GDP both beat estimates.

Today focus will be on New Home Sales (E: 700K) and there is one Fed speaker, Cook (12:00 p.m. ET).  But, given the looming holiday weekend, expect trading to be quiet barring any surprises.