Posts

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Fox Business on April 15, 2019

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye says the market can still rally despite disappointing bank earnings. Watch the full clip here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on April 11, 2019

“This met current market expectations,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “But Fed officials also didn’t see any need to cut rates at this point either, and there wasn’t even much of a discussion…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted on Market Watch on April 12, 2019

Tom Essaye quoted in MarketWatch to share his view on earnings season. “Bottom line, this earnings season is make or break for this market, because we need earnings growth to resume if the S&P 500 is going to…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on April 9, 2019

“It is a very quiet morning with stock futures trading slightly lower while most overseas markets edged higher overnight as investors look ahead to catalysts later in the week,” writes The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.

Earnings Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Season Preview: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Futures are drifting higher this morning while overseas markets were mixed during a quiet night of trading as investors look ahead to a busy calendar of events today.

There were a few economic releases o/n but none materially moved markets with international focus on this morning’s ECB Announcement (7:45 a.m. ET) and Draghi’s press conference afterwards where he is expected to shed light on TLTRO plans.

Looking into the U.S. session today, it is shaping up to be a busy one. In chronological order, there is one economic report ahead of the open: CPI (E: 0.3%, 0.2%), weekly EIA data is due out at 10:30 a.m. ET, and the Fed’s Quarles is schedule to speak at 11:50 a.m. ET.

Moving to the afternoon, there is a 10-Year Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if the outcome moves yields materially, stocks will likely follow. Then, the FOMC March Meeting Minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m. ET and the Fed’s Kaplan speaks later this evening: 7:00 p.m. ET.

With so many moving parts today, it will be important to keep an eye on yields as the bond market will offer the best read of how investors are digesting all of the day’s events.

Specifically, the 10 year yield has stabilized at 2.50% recently and if it can move higher, stocks could grind higher as well, however, if yields begin to drop like they did two weeks ago, volatility is likely to rise again, potentially significantly.

Tom Essaye Quoted in U.S. News on April 5, 2019

7 Things Need to Happen For Stocks to Move Higher

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, recently compiled this list of seven things that need to happen for the market to make it back to new highs this year. Click here to read the full article.

Can The S&P 500 Breakthrough 2900?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Next Positive Catalyst For Stocks (Potentially)
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Chinese Exports The Big Number This Week)

Futures are slightly weaker following a generally quiet weekend as markets digest last week’s rally.

Economic data was mixed and is putting mild pressure on stocks this morning as German exports missed expectations (-1.3% vs. (E) 0.1%), reminding markets the global economy isn’t healed yet.

U.S./China trade talks ended last week without an announcement of a deal but talks will continue this week via video-conference and a deal is still widely expected.

Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers, so focus will remain on any U.S./China headlines (again a deal could be announced any minute).  But, barring any surprises today should be generally quiet as the big events of the week (FOMC Minutes, Chinese data, bank earnings) happen Wed-Friday.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on April 3, 2019

The Dow Rose 39 Points After a Late Comeback

Economic data clearly remain soft on an absolute level, wrote Tom Essaye of Sevens Report on Wednesday. “There is now a laundry list of economic indicators that are flashing their worst readings since 2016…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance on April 4, 2019

Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Founder and President, says we shouldn’t expect a potential U.S.-China trade deal “to create a lasting rally” for the markets. Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous speaks to him, Brian Sozzi and Brian Cheung. Click here to watch the full interview.

 

New Highs From a Leading Indicator

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • New Highs From a Leading Indicator
  • EIA Analysis & Oil Market Update
  • Update on Global Growth (Better, But Not Good)

Futures are slightly lower despite more positive U.S./China headlines as markets digest this week’s rally.

The WSJ reported a U.S./China trade deal is now very close, with an announcement of a signing ceremony possibly coming as early as today.  But, the reason this headline didn’t cause a rally is because it’s been expected for some time.  The key going forward is how quickly tariffs are reduced, and the sooner, the better for stocks.

Economic data was sparse but German Factory Orders dropped –4.2% vs. (E) 0.3% but that number isn’t enough to offset the other good data this week.

Today is generally quiet on the data front as we only get Jobless Claims (E: 216K).  There are three Fed speakers today: Williams (9:00 a.m. ET), Harker (1:00 p.m. ET), Mester (1:00 p.m. ET) but unless they say something surprising they shouldn’t move markets.

So, absent any other catalysts, China headlines will likely be the main influence on stocks today as an official headline about a signing ceremony could cause a very short term algo-led rally, but until we find out when tariffs will be rescinded, the U.S./China news likely won’t be enough to power the market materially higher from here.