What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Report Preview
- New Highs From a Leading Indicator
- EIA Analysis & Oil Market Update
- Update on Global Growth (Better, But Not Good)
Futures are slightly lower despite more positive U.S./China headlines as markets digest this week’s rally.
The WSJ reported a U.S./China trade deal is now very close, with an announcement of a signing ceremony possibly coming as early as today. But, the reason this headline didn’t cause a rally is because it’s been expected for some time. The key going forward is how quickly tariffs are reduced, and the sooner, the better for stocks.
Economic data was sparse but German Factory Orders dropped –4.2% vs. (E) 0.3% but that number isn’t enough to offset the other good data this week.
Today is generally quiet on the data front as we only get Jobless Claims (E: 216K). There are three Fed speakers today: Williams (9:00 a.m. ET), Harker (1:00 p.m. ET), Mester (1:00 p.m. ET) but unless they say something surprising they shouldn’t move markets.
So, absent any other catalysts, China headlines will likely be the main influence on stocks today as an official headline about a signing ceremony could cause a very short term algo-led rally, but until we find out when tariffs will be rescinded, the U.S./China news likely won’t be enough to power the market materially higher from here.