Posts

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery
  • February Durable Goods Takeaway
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Update

U.S. futures are lower with most global equity markets this morning as President Trump announced fresh details about automobile tariffs and other new trade policies after the close yesterday, further raising trade war angst.

Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits edged down -0.3% in February, an improvement from January’s -3.3% print, but the report was not enough to offset tariff worries.

Today, market focus will be on economic data early in the day with Final Q4 GDP (E: 2.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 225K), International Trade in Goods (E: $-135.5B), and Pending Home Sales (E: 2.9%) all due to be released.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Barkin (4:30 p.m. ET) and a few more late-season earnings reports due from SNX ($2.91) and LULU ($5.87) that could move markets (but likely will not given the focus on global trade policies right now).

Charles Dow Would Be Selling Stocks Now

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Charles Dow Would Officially Be Selling Stocks Now
  • Consumer Confidence Takeaways – Another Survey-Based Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are slightly lower after a mostly quiet night of news as this week’s so-far-solid gains are digested with investors weighing favorable inflation data out of Europe against simmering tariff uncertainties.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell from 3.0% to 2.8% vs. (E) 2.9% in February with Core CPI down from 3.7% to 3.5%.  The “cool” inflation data is helping U.K. markets outperform European peers this morning.

Today, there is one noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic report due out ahead of the open: Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.0%). A “Goldilocks” report that is no worse than expected should help equities maintain WTD gains while a “too hot” or “too cold” print could spark some profit taking given the tentative nature of this week’s advance.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers today: Kashkari (10:00 a.m. ET) and Musalem (1:10 p.m. ET), as well as a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Less-hawkish commentary from the Fed officials and healthy but not urgent demand for the 5-Yr Notes should be well-received by investors today.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy, late-season earnings reports due out today from DLTR ($2.18), CHWY ($3.19), and JEF ($0.88), but none are likely to have a material impact on the broader market.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Composite PMI Flash Takeaways – Another Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are back to flat after trading lower overnight on profit taking as traders digest the latest trade war headlines and subsequent rally off the 2025 stock market lows.

Economically, Germany’s Ifo Survey was mostly upbeat as the headline Business Climate Index firmed to 86.7 vs. (E) 87.0 and Business Expectations jumped to 87.7 vs. (E) 86.8. The solid data is helping support gains in EU markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released starting with a few housing market releases: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.5%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), and New Home Sales (E: 679K).

Then after the open, the most important economic report of the day is due out: Consumer Confidence (E: 94.2) and investors will want to see a less-dismal data set in the survey-based release as the February consumer reports weighed heavily on risk assets.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Williams (9:05 a.m. ET) and a few late-season earnings reports from MKC ($0.64 and GME ($0.09), but neither are likely to move markets today.

 

Sevens Report Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter Coming Next Tuesday

Investor sentiment is literally at all-time lows, markets are volatile, and clients are nervous. Now is the time to remind them that long-term plans can overcome periods of volatility! 

One of the easiest and best ways to do that is with a quarterly letter, and we will be releasing the Q1 2025 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter to subscribers next Tuesday, April 1st. 

The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter is a turn-key client communications solution. We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)…
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis… and
  • Strengthen client relationships, all with little-to-no work from you!

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

We should expect continued volatile markets

/in , /by

Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

Stocks up sharply as tariff angst eases, but traders see more uncertainty ahead

“Until trade and tariff policy are known and consistent and we get a break from the dramatic overhaul of the Federal government, we should expect continued volatile markets and be aware that this pullback likely isn’t over,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on February 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Easing trade war angst

/in , /by

Easing trade war angst: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Tesla Stock’s 12% Surge Powers Broader Comeback—As Investors Bet Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Won’t Be So Bad

The rally came thanks to “easing trade war angst” on Wall Street, explained Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, referencing Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal’s weekend reports that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect next week will be far more focused in nature than Trump previously suggested.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are moderately lower as markets digest and give back some of Wednesday’s post-Fed rally, following a generally quiet night of news.

There were no new tariff headlines overnight while economic data (UK Labour Market Report) met expectations.

Today focus will turn back to economic data and there are several notable reports including, in order of importance, Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 11.5), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.95 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.2%).  Given rising economic worries, the stronger these reports (especially the first two) the better.

There are also several important earnings reports to watch today including ACN ($2.84), MU ($1.44), NKE ($0.28), FDX ($4.66), PDD ($2.56).  Given recent soft guidance from various companies, the stronger the results and guidance, the better for markets.

Bullish News for European Stocks

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish News for European Stocks
  • Why Did Stocks Drop?
  • Chart: Long-Term Bearish Reversal in Dow Theory

Futures are rebounding from yesterday’s ~1% pullback amid progress towards a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine, “cool” inflation data overseas, and trader positioning into the Fed decision this afternoon.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) fell from 2.5% Y/Y to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% in February, which is being well received by investors in pre-market trade as the Fed decision comes into focus.

There are no notable economic reports today although there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy rate expectations with the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference looming later this afternoon.

The FOMC meeting announcement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET shortly before Fed Chair Powell’s mid-afternoon press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will almost certainly be the “main event” of the trading session as investors look for clarity on monetary policy outlook given the recent escalation in trade war developments and the subsequent sense of market uncertainty that has come with it.

Finally, while earnings season is winding down, there are a few consumer-focused companies reporting quarterly results today: WSM ($2.91), GIS ($0.95), and FIVE ($3.38).

A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased

/in , , /by

A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased: Analysts at Sevens Report Research Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices resume slide, ending lower as tariff fears spark stock-market tumble

Meanwhile, the prospect of Trump administration efforts leading to a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has “greatly increased,” and should the war come to an end sooner than expected, it’s likely sanctions on Russia’s energy industry could be lifted, adding a sizeable amount of crude to the global market, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Monday note.

“Combining those influences, it is becoming increasingly likely that a physical markets surplus emerges in the months ahead, which could send WTI futures prices down towards $50/barrel later in 2025,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview: Clarity on the “Fed Put”

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Meeting Preview – Clarity on the “Fed Put”
  • Retail Sales & Empire State Manufacturing Data Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as the bounce off of last week’s multi-month lows is being digested while trader-focus is turning to the March FOMC meeting which begins today.

Economically, the March German ZEW Survey saw its headline edge up from -88.5 to -87.6 while the Economic Sentiment component jumped from 26.0 to 51.6 vs. (E) 35. The data was well received and is amplifying already elevated optimism surrounding a looming German parliament vote on a massive spending package (focused on defense spending) that is expected to bolster economic growth.

In the U.S., there are several economic reports to watch today including: Housing Starts (1.383M), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.1% m/m, -0.2% m/m), and Industrial Production (E: 0.2%), however with the Fed decision looming tomorrow, none are expected to meaningfully move markets today.

The only other noteworthy, potential catalysts today are a pair of Treasury auctions, the first for 52-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and the second for 20-Yr Bonds at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong demand in the shorter durations bills would be seen as dovish and “market-friendly” while too strong of demand for 20-Yr Bonds could rekindle worries about the economy.

A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil

/in , , /by

A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil: Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Co-Editor, Quoted in OilPrice.com

Trump Talks To End Ukraine War Involve Power Plants

A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil prices if Trump pushes for the removal of sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Geopolitical stability may also “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.” Sanctions by the Biden administration roughly tripled the number of directly sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers, enough to affect around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd)

Also, click here to view the full article published by OilPrice.com on March 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.