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Sevens Report: U.S.-Iran Talks Leave Geopolitical Risks Elevated

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Tyler Richey says stalled negotiations keep markets on edge despite open channels.

Oil markets are on edge over elevated risks of a U.S. military strike against Iran this weekend

Geopolitical risks remain largely unchanged following the latest U.S.-Iran discussions, according to Sevens Report Research. Co-editor Tyler Richey said the talks failed to deliver progress on the core issues facing both sides, leaving tensions at roughly the same level as before the meetings.

Richey noted that while the lack of breakthroughs is disappointing, the fact that negotiations did not collapse entirely still matters for markets. Open communication channels reduce the odds of an immediate escalation, but they do not eliminate near-term risks.

With tensions still elevated, Richey said the possibility of military action cannot be dismissed, particularly over a short time horizon. That uncertainty helps explain why many traders are reluctant to hold short positions heading into the weekend, when headline risk is highest.

He added that newly announced sanctions are best viewed as incremental pressure designed to accelerate negotiations rather than a signal of imminent conflict. For now, Sevens Report believes geopolitical uncertainty will remain a background risk factor rather than a dominant market driver unless energy supplies are directly threatened.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on February 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: 10-Year Yield Remains ‘Neutral’ for Stocks

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Tom Essaye says the 4.20% range keeps markets stable — for now.

10-Treasury yield rises, but remains in range seen as ‘neutral’ for stocks

Treasury yields were rising Monday morning, with the rate on the 10-year note reversing its decline from last week but still trading in a range that Sevens Report Research called “neutral” for the stock market.

“The 10-year Treasury yield has been well behaved through this recent stock market volatility and in the 4.20% range it remains neutral for markets generally speaking,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a note Monday. “That needs to continue, because a sudden plunge below 4.00% would signal growth concerns, while a jump above 4.50% would imply rising inflation risks and both would add incremental headwinds on stocks (and possibly bonds).”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on February 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: Gold and Silver Drop After Unsustainable Parabolic Run

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Tom Essaye says last month’s precious-metals surge broke under its own weight.

Gold, silver losses ease after ‘disturbing’ safe haven sell-off

Gold and silver prices stabilized Monday after a violent selloff that reversed a parabolic rally and caught many investors off guard. According to Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye, the breakdown was inevitable given how stretched prices had become.

Essaye said the speed and magnitude of last week’s gains left the precious metals market vulnerable to a sharp correction. Once selling began, momentum flipped quickly as traders recognized that the recent advance was detached from sustainable fundamentals.

While the move was dramatic, Sevens views it as a technical reset rather than a signal that the broader bullish case for precious metals is broken. The firm has consistently cautioned that steep, momentum-driven rallies often end abruptly once confidence cracks, especially in crowded trades.

From here, price stability and consolidation will be key in determining whether gold and silver can rebuild upside momentum or remain vulnerable to additional volatility.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Yahoo Finance on February 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Warns Weaker Dollar Is Supercharging a Run-Hot Economy

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Sevens says Trump-linked dollar weakness is amplifying growth and inflation risks.

How Trump creates another ’run-hot’ influence on the economy

The latest Sevens Report argues that the U.S. economy is being pushed further into a “run-hot” phase as the dollar slides to multi-year lows. According to the firm, President Trump’s dismissal of recent dollar weakness effectively signaled tolerance — if not support — for further depreciation, accelerating trends already in place.

Sevens notes that fiscal stimulus, pressure for lower rates, deregulation, and efforts to pull in foreign capital have already tilted the economy toward overheating. A weaker currency compounds that backdrop by ensuring more liquidity is chasing a limited supply of goods and services, keeping inflation pressures elevated even as growth remains strong.

The report outlines three key transmission channels. First, a softer dollar raises import costs, lifting prices on consumer goods in an import-dependent economy. Second, it boosts earnings for multinational companies, helping explain recent outperformance in technology and consumer discretionary stocks. Third, it inflates the value of real assets such as gold, oil, and other commodities that cannot be diluted like fiat currencies.

Sevens cautions that the dollar’s roughly 11% decline over the past year is far from benign. While markets have absorbed the move so far, a faster slide toward the low 90s could unsettle investors and intensify the risk of sustained inflation alongside resilient growth.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on January 29th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Bar Has Been Lowered Says Tom Essaye

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Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

UAL Earnings Seek to Reverse Airline Caution Signaled by DAL

“The bar has been lowered” for United Airlines (UAL) after Delta Airlines (DAL) signaled caution in its earnings, says Tom Essaye. He sees investors focusing on guidance and whether United can weather global volatility. Tom tells investors to listen for commentary surrounding international travel, price cuts, and fuel impacts. Tom White helps investors navigate the options front through an example trade.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on January 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance: “If AI goes south on us, tech will go.”

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Tom Essaye tells Yahoo Finance, “If AI goes south on us, tech will go.”

AI took investors on a date in 2025. In 2026, analysts say it’s time to foot the bill.

“If AI goes south on us, tech will go,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report, told Yahoo Finance in an interview.

In a new report, “Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026,” Essaye observed that the initial unified enthusiasm for AI has become “fractured.” The industry is moving into a period where the market is aggressively sorting winners and losers. While memory plays like Micron (MU) have surged over 241% year to date, Essaye argued that former darlings like Oracle (ORCL) have faced more scrutiny as investors demand immediate ROI.

Also, click here to view the full article on Yahoo Finance published on January 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investors Are Pricing in a Soft Economic Landing – Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

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Tom Essaye says equities have room to run amid earnings growth optimism.

Stocks Close at Record, Nudged Higher as Cook Buys Nike Shares

“Investors are pricing in a soft economic landing with conviction as we approach the year-end,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. He said that “equities have room to run amid optimism surrounding the potential for strong earnings growth in the quarters to come.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on December 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

Futures are little changed in quiet trading following the Christmas holiday, as most European markets are closed for St. Steven’s Day.

There was no notable foreign economic out overnight.

On AI, Nvidia announced a partnership with AI Groq that is being positive received by markets (and boosting AI Enthusiasm).

Today should be a quiet trading day barring any geopolitical surprises as there are no economic reports, no meaningful earnings nor any Fed speak.

Sevens Report: December Strength Usually Comes Late in the Month

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History shows early December choppiness often gives way to a strong year-end rally.

12/22/2025 ValuEngine Weekly Market Summary & Commentary

Seasonal reversals like the one seen this November are far from unusual, according to Sevens Report Research. Analysis from Sevens Report shows that in more than 70% of Decembers since 1950, markets have experienced a weak or choppy first half followed by stronger gains into year-end.

December remains one of the market’s most reliable months overall. The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return over the past 75 years and finished higher nearly three-quarters of the time, giving it the highest historical win rate of any month. However, Sevens notes that most of those gains typically come late.

Returns through the tenth-to-last trading day of December average just 0.1%, meaning the bulk of the month’s upside historically occurs during the final two weeks, coinciding with the Santa Claus rally. Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac confirms a similar pattern.

Given these persistent seasonal trends, Sevens Report Research continues to favor maintaining exposure to large-cap and technology stocks into the end of the year.

Also, click here to view the full article on TheGlobeAndMail.com published on December 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed: Why a Drop Below $80K Could Trigger a Bigger Collapse for Bitcoin

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Crypto: A ‘trap door’ will open up if bitcoin falls below $80K

Crypto: A ‘trap door’ will open up if bitcoin falls below $80K

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye and Yahoo Finance senior reporters Brooke DiPalma and Ines Ferré weigh in on the state of the crypto space, coming as Bank of America is recommending that its wealth management clients should allocate 4% of their portfolios into crypto.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.