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SPX: Three Key Market Drivers Right Now Says Essaye

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Economic growth overtakes tariffs as top market influence

SPX: Today’s Three Most Important Stock Market Drivers

Stocks rallied Monday after last week’s sharp pullback, but Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report says fundamentals have slightly worsened since July.

Economic growth is now the primary driver of markets, with recession fears posing sharp downside risk regardless of Fed rate cuts. Fed policy ranks second, as investors look for confirmation of a likely September cut. Tariffs, once the dominant factor, now rank third, with rates expected to settle between 15%-20%, raising stagflation risks but adding some trade stability.

Also, click here to view the full article published in the MoneyShow on August 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Watch These Gold Levels as Bulls Target New Highs

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Watch These Support and Resistance Levels as Gold Eyes New Highs

Gold’s bullish primary trend, intact since late November 2023, remains in place after record June highs, though momentum is fading. Tom Essaye of Sevens Report says bulls’ key threshold is $3,450, with resistance at $3,444, $3,473, and $3,510, and support at $3,328, $3,284, and $3,181.

Mid-morning Treasury volatility Wednesday briefly pushed gold to session highs before prices settled flat, just under near-term resistance. The $3,325 level is critical support in the short term.

Also, click here to view the full article published in the Moneyshow on August 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Influence of 0DTE Options Seen in Thursday’s Market Moves

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‘Influence of 0DTE options was apparent’ in Thursday’s market action: Sevens Report

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye said the “influence of 0DTE options on intraday price action was apparent” Thursday, possibly explaining why the S&P 500 trimmed earlier losses by the close.

Trading in these ultra-short-dated index options has surged this summer, making them an increasingly significant force in daily market swings.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More Clarity Coming on Geo-politics, Trade and Inflation?  (If so, it’d be Positive for Stocks)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Inflation and Growth Updates via CPI and Retail Sales

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

News flow was minimal over the weekend but investors are looking forward to another important week for geo-politics (Russia/Ukraine ceasefire?), trade (China tariff extension?) and stagflation (CPI and Retail Sales).

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Italian CPI, which met expectations (0.4% m/m, 1.7% y/y).

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on geopolitics and trade.  Any headlines that hint at a ceasefire in Ukraine and/or confirm an extension of current Chinese tariff rates will be a mild tailwind on stocks.

 

AI Bubble Watch: Part 2

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • AI Bubble Watch: Part 2

Futures are slightly higher following more mixed trade news.

Japanese stocks rallied after an announcement that the U.S. would “fix” an issue of tariff stacking that would result in some tariff reduction.

On gold, the U.S. may apply tariffs to Swiss gold imports, possibly disrupting to global physical gold trade.

Economically, there were no notable reports overnight.

There are no notable economic reports today but there are two Fed speakers, Musalem (10:20 a.m. ET) and Bowman, and if they join the growing “dovish” camp and hint at a September rate cut, that should help support markets.

 

Tom Essaye Named to MoneyShow’s List of Top Market Experts

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Sevens Report founder recognized for clear, trusted market insight

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, has been named to the MoneyShow’s prestigious list of market experts. Known for his plain-English, no-hype financial commentary, Essaye joins a lineup of elite analysts and thought leaders selected for their accuracy, transparency, and impact.

Essaye launched the Sevens Report in 2012 with a goal of helping financial professionals cut through the noise and make better decisions faster. Since then, the firm has expanded to include a range of products:
• Sevens Report Alpha – investment-focused insights
• Sevens Report Technicals – chart-based market analysis
• Sevens Report Quarterly Letter – client communication solutions

A regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and Yahoo Finance, Essaye is also frequently quoted in top financial publications including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Morningstar, and Bloomberg. He holds degrees from Vanderbilt University and the University of Florida.

This recognition from MoneyShow cements his position as a go-to source for market analysis that’s clear, actionable, and trusted by professionals.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

MMT Chart: A “Relatively” Different Look at Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August MMT Chart Update: A “Relatively” Different Look at Stocks
  • ISM Services Index – A Fresh “Whiff” of Stagflation
  • Stagflation Risks Set Gold Up for Run to Record Highs

Futures are tracking global markets higher this morning as investors shrug off both the ISM Services Index from yesterday, which carried a whiff of stagflation, and soft earnings from semiconductor giants AMD (-7%) and SMCI (-17%) after the close yesterday.

Economically, EU Retail Sales rose 3.1% vs. (E) 2.6% which is serving to tamp down worries about the health of the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released.

However, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and investors will look for the recent trend of healthy demand metrics to continue, despite the sharp drop in yields since Friday’s dismal jobs report.

Additionally, there are a few Fed officials scheduled to speak who could shed light on the prospects of a September rate cut (which is increasingly expected) including Cook & Collins (2:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (3:10 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues with MCD ($3.15), UBER ($0.62), SHOP ($0.20), DIS ($1.47), NRG ($1.54), ABNB ($0.93), and ET ($0.32) all reporting quarterly results today.

For now, investors are overlooking the soft semiconductor earnings from late yesterday, however, any Q2 results that challenge the idea that the consumer remains resilient and healthy in 2025, could add to recession worries and pressure stocks again today.

 

Drop in Treasury Yields May Help Stocks, But This Level Matters

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Sevens Report says bond market must stabilize to support equities

Drop in Treasury yields may provide ‘tailwind’ for stocks — but watch out for this level

Friday’s drop in Treasury yields offered a short-term boost to equities, but Sevens Report Research says investors should remain cautious.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said the 10-year Treasury’s fall to around 4.2% brings it to “a more positive level” for stocks. However, he emphasized that yields need to stabilize and be confirmed by incoming economic data in order to become a “new tailwind” for the market.

Essaye warned that if yields continue to drop sharply—particularly if the 10-year approaches 4.00%—it could indicate a deeper concern. “That will not be positive for stocks as it’ll signal more of a growth scare versus anything positive,” he wrote Monday.

For now, the bond market isn’t flashing warning signs. But Sevens says the next few data points will be key to determining if yields are helping—or hurting—the rally.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets

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Sevens Report sees no recession yet, but warns of rising anxiety

What the bad jobs report means for markets

“The jobs report was a major disappointment, but job adds are still positive, so it’s not signaling any sort of recession or slowdown,” Sevens wrote Monday.

Sevens Report noted that the report is often the “most inaccurate” of economic data, prone to distortions and revisions—especially during the summer. Broader indicators like jobless claims and the JOLTS survey remain stable, offering a more balanced picture of the labor market.

Tariff announcements on Friday were also shrugged off. Sevens said the moves were “largely in line with expectations” and that the market reaction reflected sentiment rather than surprise. “The S&P 500 gave zero room for disappointment,” the firm noted.

Looking ahead, Tuesday’s ISM Services PMI could be critical. A drop below 50 may fuel recession fears and push stocks lower, while a stable reading above 50 would help settle nerves.

With defensive sectors outperforming late last week, Sevens advised staying balanced: “If you’re very light defensives, you may want to be ready to boost them if data is soft.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on August 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report warns of early signs of an AI-driven market bubble

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Sevens Report warns of early signs of an AI-driven market bubble

10 AI Stocks Analysts Are Watching Closely

The latest Sevens Report highlights growing concerns that AI-related stocks—especially chipmakers—may be flashing early warning signs of a bubble.

“Every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative,” the report states. “That potentially bubble-inflating theme is unquestionably AI technology.”

Much of the enthusiasm has centered around Nvidia (NVDA), but Sevens warns that relying on a single name can be dangerous. “There are a lot of various factors that can impact a single stock, including a ‘cult following’… a dynamic that has appeared to have emerged with NVDA as well.”

Instead, they recommend watching the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which includes multiple AI players like AMD, Qualcomm, and others. “It would be much more prudent to keep tabs on the broader-based semiconductor index, SOX,” they wrote.

The SOX hasn’t hit a new high since July 2024, even as the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 13% in that time. Sevens warns that if AI remains the sole driver of optimism, “this market is in trouble and at risk of rolling over sooner than later.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Insidermonkey.com on August 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.