Posts

Market Outlook (After the Bounce)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Outlook (After the Bounce)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Important First Looks at January Data)
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About Earnings)

Futures are sharply lower following more disappointing global economic data.

Chinese exports badly missed expectations falling –4.4% vs. (E) 4.8%, further stoking fears of a Chinese economic slowdown.  Data in Europe wasn’t much better, as Euro Zone Industrial Production fell –1.7% vs. (E) 0.5%.

Geopolitically, it was a generally quiet weekend as markets are looking past Trump’s economic threat to Turkey.

There are no notable economic reports today so focus will be on earnings, as the Q4 season officially kicks off with C ($1.55).  The key for this report (and all reports this season) will be the guidance and management commentary – and anything that downplays a slowing global economy will be welcomed by markets.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on January 10, 2019

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Tom Eassye was quote in MarketWatch on January 10, 2019. Read the full article here.

Earnings Season Preview (Market or Break for the Bull Market)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Season Preview:  Two Important Factors

Futures are slightly lower despite generally good news overnight, as markets continue to digest the recent rally.

The U.S. & China announced the next round of trade talks will occur Jan 30/31 in Washington, which is a mild positive (although it was largely expected and mostly priced in).

Economically, data was mixed Japanese Household Spending rose 1.1% vs. (E) 0.2%, while UK Industrial Production dropped –0.3% vs. (E) 0.4%.

Today is all about the CPI  report (E: -0.1% m/m, 1.9% y/y).  Both the headline and core need to stay around 2.0% yoy for this “dovish” Fed narrative to continue to grow, as a hot CPI report could undo some of the rally markets have enjoyed since last Friday.

Technical Update (Bounce or Bottom?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Market Update – Bounce or Bottom?
  • U.S./China Trade Update (What’s Next and What Sectors Benefit)

Futures are modestly lower as markets digest the recent rally following a quiet night of news.

Economically, Chinese inflation underwhelmed as CPI rose 1.9% vs. (E) 2.0% and PPI gained just 0.9% vs. (E) 2.7%.  However, those soft numbers give Chinese authorities more room to further stimulate their economy, so low inflation isn’t a negative.

On trade, there were no further comments from either side (a slight negative) as some were hoping for some optimistic official statement from the Chinese.

Today focus will remain on the Fed as we get multiple Fed speakers, highlighted by Fed Chair Powell (1:00 PM) and Vice Chair Clarida (5:30 PM).  We expect more dovish language from virtually all the speakers today, but at this point most of the benefit from dovish Fed speak is priced in, so don’t expect the comments to be a major positive catalyst unless there’s a surprise.

Economically, the calendar is quiet although we do get Jobless Claims (E: 224k) and we want to see those move back towards 200k and away from 250k.

Four Keys to a Market Bottom Updated

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Keys to a Market Bottom – More Progress But Not There Yet
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are marginally lower following a quiet weekend as markets digest Friday’s big rally.

Economic data was mixed overnight as Japanese Composite PMI and German Manufacturers’ Orders missed estimates.  However, German Retail Sales (1.4% vs. (E) 0.4%) and EU Retail Sales (0.6% vs. (E) 0.2%) beat expectations.   So, the data reflects a still generally muddled global economic outlook.

Regarding trade, the next round of U.S./China trade talks began in Beijing but there were no notable headlines, although none were expected this early so the silence isn’t a negative at this point.

Today focus will be on economic data as we get the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (E: 58.4).  Despite Friday’s strong jobs report there are growing worries about the U.S. economy so a good ISM Non-Manufacturing (or service sector) PMI should help stocks keep most of Friday’s gains.  Finally, we also have one Fed speaker today, Bostic at 12:40 p.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • Is the AAPL Decline an Opportunity for Value Stocks?

Futures are down more than 1% as AAPL sharply cut Q4 revenue guidance.

AAPL cut Q4 revenue guidance to $84 bln from the previous $89-$93 bln range, citing slowing Chinese demand as the main negative influence.

Economically UK Construction PMI and Euro Zone Money supply both slightly missed expectations.

The entire tech sector will be in focus today to see how well it can hold up in the face of the AAPL news, which wasn’t a shock as analysts and suppliers have been cutting IPhone numbers for months.  If stocks can set the lows early in the day and rally back, that would be an anecdotal sign near term selling pressure may be exhausted.

Away from AAPL, we get a lot of economic data today including (in order of importance): ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 57.9), ADP Employment Report (E: 175K), Jobless Claims (E: 217K) and Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 17.3M).  Data today could be important because if the data is firm, it should decrease the AAPL fallout.  However, if the data is weak, then it’s going to be another ugly day as the news will reinforce worries about corporate earnings and economic growth.

More Growth Fears

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Aussie-Yen Points to Further Growth Fears

S&P futures are tracking international shares lower to start the year this morning as another set of soft economic data stoked fears of slowing global growth.

The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Index fell 0.5% to 49.7 in December suggesting the world’s second largest economy is slipping into contraction.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index met expectations but dipped to a near two year low of 51.4.

In the U.S. today, there is one economic report to watch: PMI Manufacturing Index (E: 53.9) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

Long Term Entry Point?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why I’m Buying Some Stock in My IRA Today
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet
  • Weekly Market Preview

Futures are seeing a modest oversold bounce following a generally quiet weekend.

If there is a “reason’ for this modest bounce in futures it was the administration trying to reassure investors over the weekend.  Treasury Secretary Mnuchin tried to calm markets by 1) Stating Trump knows he can’t fire Fed Chair Powell and 2)  Calling the heads of major U.S. banks to ensure there were no liquidity problems (there weren’t).

There was no notable economic data or U.S./China trade updates over the weekend.

Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers,  and the markets close early (1:00 p.m. ET).

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in The Wall Street Journal on December 12, 2018

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in The Wall Street Journal on December 12, 2018. Read the full article here.

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Barron’s on December 12, 2018

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Barron’s on December 12, 2018. Read the full article here.