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Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse
  • Weekly Market Preview: Are there any Real Signs of De-escalation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Report Friday (It’s a Busy Week for Data)

Futures are modestly higher in reaction to more positive commentary from President Trump on the war in Iran.

President Trump told the FT that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15 point ceasefire plan and that is boosting futures.

Away from rhetoric, the conflict escalated further over the weekend as the Houthis attacked Israel while an Iranian missile struck a Saudi air base, damaging military aircraft. The gap between rhetoric and actual events in the conflict is keeping any gains in futures modest.

Today focus will remain on the U.S./Iran war and for this early bounce to hold, we’ll need to see some events on the ground also point towards de-escalation.  Away from the war, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10:00 a.m., so his comments have the potential to move markets.

 

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Key Technical Signals and Correction Territory

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Key Technical Signals and Correction Territory
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Iran – Do We See De-escalation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Any Signs Higher Oil Is Impacting Growth?

Futures have reversed this morning’s losses and are sharply higher after President Trump announced a pause in strikes on energy infrastructure and cited “productive” talks with Iran.

This comes after President Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened to ship traffic (he implied a Monday night deadline).

Oil prices fell sharply in response to the U.S-Iran update from the President this morning.

Today focus will remain on the U.S./Iran war and we can continue to expect stocks to trade inversely to the price of oil. So, any signs of de-escalation (including social media posts or actual events) should make oil drop and stocks rebound while any signs of further escalation (again, including social media posts or actual events) will put more pressure on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, Construction Spending (E: 0.1%), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

3 Market Headwinds, 3 Indicators to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Market Problems, Three Indicators to Watch
  • Weekly Market Preview: De-escalation or Not?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Decision the Key Event

Futures are modestly higher after several tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, raising hopes the key oil route could reopen.

Rhetoric from both sides continues to downplay the chances of near-term negotiations while reports say the U.S. may form a coalition to escort ships through the Strait.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), and the NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 37). Markets will want to see stable growth data as investors monitor oil prices.

Beyond the data, the Treasury will auction 3 & 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET while earnings today include DLTR ($2.53) and BEKE ($0.07).

 

Why the Strait of Hormuz Problem Likely Isn’t Solved Yet

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Strait of Hormuz Problem Likely Isn’t Solved Yet
  • Jobs Report Preview (Economic Data Is Key for this Market)

Futures are flat as there were no new significant headlines from Iran overnight while tech earnings beat estimates.

Geopolitically, investors are focused on when transit resumes through the Strait of Hormuz and there was no new news overnight.

Broadcom (AVGO) beat earnings and that’s helping to further fuel a tech rebound.

Focus today will remain on geopolitical headlines and any progress towards a cease-fire or increased transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be a positive for stocks.

Away from geopolitics, there are two notable economic reports today, Challenger Layoffs (Last: 108k) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K).  The stronger these numbers, the better, as they reinforce growth is solid (and that’s an important support for this market).

Finally, there is one Fed speaker, Bowman (1:15 p.m. ET) and some notable earnings:  MRVL ($0.62), COST ($4.55), IOT ($-0.01).

 

Is the Tariff Decision a Bullish Catalyst?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Tariff Decision a Bullish Catalyst?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About AI (Key AI Earnings This Week)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Inflation and Labor Market Insights

Futures are slightly lower are markets digest the SCOTUS tariff decision and despite reports of some de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran.

Fears of an imminent U.S. strike on Iran eased this weekend as the U.S. and Iran announced they will hold more negotiations this Thursday.

Economically, German Ifo Business Conditions slightly missed estimates (89.6 vs. (E) 90.5).

This week is a potentially important one with a lot of critical tech earnings reports, but it starts slowly as there is just one economic report today, Chicago Fed (E: -0.04) and one Fed speaker, Waller (8:00 a.m.) and neither are likely to move markets.

 

No signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict

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No signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in USA Today

US stocks close higher as oil dips on Iran’s openness to ceasefire, nuclear talks

“There are no signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict and that’s keeping geo-political concerns anchored” and stock markets buoyed, said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report Editor Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

Stocks Rise on Reports Iran Wants to Restart Talks: Markets Wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

 

Why Are Markets Ignoring Scary Headlines?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Markets Ignoring Scary Headlines?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the Fed Signal Rate Cuts Ahead?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Is Consumer Spending Losing Momentum?

Futures are modestly higher as geopolitical risks didn’t rise substantially over the weekend while Chinese economic data was stronger than expected.

Geopolitically, the Israel/Iran conflict escalated as the two countries exchanged attacks over the weekend, but there are no signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict and that’s keeping geopolitical concerns anchored.

Economically, Chinese retail sales rose 6.4% y/y vs. (E) 4.9%, pushing back on concerns of a dramatic slowdown.

Today focus will remain on geo-political headlines but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets.  Outside of geopolitics, the notable report today is the June Empire Manufacturing Survey (-7.3) and markets will want to see stable data and declining prices (further pushing back on stagflation fears).

What Yesterday’s “Inside Day” Means for Markets

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What Yesterday’s “Inside Day” Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Yesterday’s Inside Day Means for Markets
  • Takeaways From Oil’s Reaction to Israel’s Retaliatory Air Strikes

Futures are flat this morning while global markets rallied modestly overnight amid quiet news flow as traders look ahead to multiple important catalysts looming over the next week.

Economically, data was largely encouraging overnight as the Japanese Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.5% while the German GfK Consumer Climate Index rose to -18.3 vs. (E) -20.5, however, neither report meaningfully impacted markets.

Looking ahead to the U.S. session, there are several noteworthy economic releases today beginning with a housing market report, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 5.2%), before we the first labor market report of this critical jobs week, JOLTS (E: 7.9 million), and finally Consumer Confidence (E: 99.1).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The 7-yr auction is notable because soft demand in past auction have roiled bond markets and sparked volatility in equities, something to watch for today.

In corporate news, this critical week of earnings begins in earnest today with consumer-focused companies including PYPL ($1.08), MCD ($3.18), and BP ($0.78) reporting before the bell while tech giants AMD ($0.92) and GOOG ($1.83) report after the close along with credit card staple V ($2.58).

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What the Iranian Missile Strike Means for Markets

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Economic Implications of the Port Strikes: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Iranian Missile Strike Means for Markets
  • ISM Manufacturing Mildly Disappoints
  • JOLTS Top Estimates

Stock futures are lower amid a continued risk-off tone in markets as investors digest negative earnings news and await Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack on Tuesday.

In corporate news, NKE earnings disappointed as sales fell 10% y/y and guidance was withdrawn ahead of a CEO change, leaving shares down 5% pre-market.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.4% in August, meeting estimates which is having little impact on markets today.

Today, investor focus will be on the ADP Employment Report (E: 121.5K) before the bell as well as a handful of Fed speakers on the schedule through the lunch hour: Hammack (9:00 a.m. ET), Musalem (10:05 a.m. ET), Bowman (11:00 a.m. ET), and Barkin (12:15 p.m. ET).

In addition to the jobs data and Fed chatter, tensions in the Middle East will remain a major focus as further deterioration in the Israel-Iran conflict is likely to weigh further on risk assets and influence flight-to-safety money flows.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered

Our Q3’24 Quarterly Letter was delivered to subscribers. We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

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You can view our Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter here. To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email: info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.