“Yes, AI does have great potential and it does appear to be the ‘next big thing’,” wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. “But I don’t see how that promise can offset the reality of higher interest rates and more pressure on the economy, at least not for a sustainable period.” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are higher and Treasury yields are falling this morning amid renewed optimism for a debt ceiling deal.
President Biden and Speaker McCarthy agreed in principle to a two-year debt ceiling extension, which markets expect to be signed before the June 5th “X date.”
Eurozone Economic Sentiment dropped to 96.5 vs. (E) 99.4, underscoring worries about growth overseas but the debt ceiling deal optimism is overshadowing worries about the economy this morning.
Today, there are several economic reports to watch including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: -0.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 100.0).
Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET), however investors will remain primarily focused on the debt ceiling deal and as long as news flow surrounding the final negotiations remains positive, risk on money flows should continue today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Equity futures are lower with global markets this morning as there has been no further progress in debt ceiling negotiations while data overnight pointed to stagflation.
Economically, U.K. CPI was 8.7% vs. (E) 8.3% y/y while the German Ifo Survey was weak across the board with Business Expectations notably falling to 88.6 vs. (E) 91.7. And sticky high inflation and fading growth prospects are a very negative scenario for global risk assets.
There are no market moving economic reports on the calendar for today which will leave traders primarily focused on the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations.
There is one Fed speaker: Waller at 12:10 p.m. ET and the May FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which could shed some light on the Fed’s expected “pause.” Any indication that hikes may continue this summer would trigger volatility as current market odds of a June hike are less than 1 in 3.
Finally, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and have an influence on equity market trading in the afternoon.
“Basically I think there’s some regulation concerns, not so much in the governmental sense yet, but perhaps industry regulations. That’s just injecting some fundamental uncertainty into the whole space, and given the valuations and popularity of the AI names, it’s resulting in some wild gyrations!” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye says. Click here to read the full article.
