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Macro Outlook: Better, But Is It This Good?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Macro Outlook Update:  Better, But Is It This Good?
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Today and Friday are the key days)

Futures are flat as economic data was weak, but countering that was positive comments on U.S./China trade.

September EU flash composite PMIs were ugly, as the headline dropped to 50.4 vs. (E) 52.0 while manufacturing fell to 45.6 vs. (E) 47.3.  As usual, U.S./China trade is over shadowing everything else, but these are not good numbers and they do not imply global economic stabilization is occurring.

On U.S./China trade, the Chinese Ministry of Finance called last week’s talks “constructive” and that’s alleviating fears the earlier than expected departure implied a breakdown.

Today the key number is the Sept. Flash PMI (E: 51.2) and it needs to meet or beat expectations, otherwise concerns will continue to rise about the future growth of the U.S. economy.

There are also three Fed speakers (Williams (9:50 a.m.), Bullard (1:00 p.m.), Daly (2:30 p.m.)) we got a lot of Fed speak on Friday and it didn’t change the current outlook, so there’s no reason to think that will happen today.