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Tom Essaye Quoted in Fin24 on April 22, 2019

“It’s going to take something else to push the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. That was the main takeaway from last week…”

Tom Essaye

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg on April 21, 2019

What would it take the push the market to new all-time highs? Tom Essaye quoted on Bloomberg to share his view on the market, U.S. – China trade, Fed and more. Read the full article here.

 

Can The S&P 500 Breakthrough 2900?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Next Positive Catalyst For Stocks (Potentially)
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Chinese Exports The Big Number This Week)

Futures are slightly weaker following a generally quiet weekend as markets digest last week’s rally.

Economic data was mixed and is putting mild pressure on stocks this morning as German exports missed expectations (-1.3% vs. (E) 0.1%), reminding markets the global economy isn’t healed yet.

U.S./China trade talks ended last week without an announcement of a deal but talks will continue this week via video-conference and a deal is still widely expected.

Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers, so focus will remain on any U.S./China headlines (again a deal could be announced any minute).  But, barring any surprises today should be generally quiet as the big events of the week (FOMC Minutes, Chinese data, bank earnings) happen Wed-Friday.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance on April 4, 2019

Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Founder and President, says we shouldn’t expect a potential U.S.-China trade deal “to create a lasting rally” for the markets. Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous speaks to him, Brian Sozzi and Brian Cheung. Click here to watch the full interview.

 

Latest on U.S./China Trade (Is a Deal in Place?)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Latest on U.S./China Trade (Is a Deal In Place?)
  • Positive Signs from the Bond Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview (Jobs & The ECB)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are modestly higher thanks to reports that the U.S. and China are extremely close to a new trade deal.

The WSJ reported the U.S. and China are aiming to sign a new trade deal on March 27th that will include the removal of all tariffs, although the article cautioned it’s not a done deal at this point.

Economically, data was weak again as British Construction PMI (50.6 vs. (E) 52.5) and EuroZone PPI (3.0% vs. (E) 3.2%) missed estimates.

There are no economic reports today so focus will remain on U.S./China trade and any official confirmation (from the U.S. or Chinese government) of the positive articles that hit overnight.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on March 1, 2019

Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, said, “To be sure, there are arguments that industrials could keep up their current pace of growth, at least in the short term. Investor optimism toward a U.S.-China trade deal, as well as the belief that global growth will…” Read the full article here.

Seven Macro Catalysts

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Seven “If’s” That Will Move This Market

Money flows are decidedly risk-on this morning thanks to renewed optimism about U.S.–China trade negotiations after an otherwise very quiet weekend.

Late yesterday, President Trump officially delayed the March 1st tariff deadline sending US stock futures up 10-15 points at the electronic open and shares in mainland China up over 5%.

There were no notable economic reports or other market moving catalysts overnight.

Looking into today’s Wall Street session, there are two economic reports due out this morning: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: 0.13) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (E: 3.0). These two releases are not usually watched closely by investors but they were especially bad in late 2019 and contributed to the heavy selling in December, so if they “whiff” again, we could see stocks come for sale.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today which will leave the market primarily focused on any new developments or details regarding trade negotiations with China. Note that the March 1st deadline was delayed indefinitely and there were no other material developments regarding trade over the weekend so investors will be looking for any further indication on the next steps towards a deal.

Why QT Matters to This Market

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why QT Matters To This Market

Futures are flat as more reports of an impending U.S./China trade deal offset disappointing economic data.

Japanese & EU flash manufacturing PMIs both fell below 50 in February.  The Japanese PMI dropped to 48.5 while the EU reading fell to 49.2 (vs. (E) 50.4).

Multiple media outlets reported a U.S./China trade deal is almost done, but we don’t know if tariffs will be reduced.

Today focus will be on economic data as we get several potentially important reports.  They are, in order of importance:  Flash Composite PMI (E: 54.4), Philly Fed Mfg Index (E: 14.0), Durable Goods (E: 1.0%), Jobless Claims (E: 225k),  Existing Home Sales (E: 5.04M).

If the data is good, that will fuel a further rally towards 2800 in the S&P 500, although I don’t think good data today will be enough to get us through that level (it’ll take more dovish Fed commentary on the balance sheet to do that in the near term).

Valuation Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Valuation Update – What Will Cause a Further Rally?
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Updated Economic Outlook

Futures are modestly lower this morning as last week’s gains are digested following a quiet holiday weekend.

There were no US-China trade developments since Friday however negotiations are set to resume in Washington this week.

Economically, the British Labour Market Report largely met expectations while the headline to the German ZEW Survey for February fell to a more than 4-year low, underscoring analysts concerns about German growth expectations.

Looking ahead to the U.S. session today, there is one Fed speaker ahead of the open: Mester (8:50 a.m. ET) and one economic report due out in the first hour of trade: Housing Market Index (E: 59.0).

The market’s main focus will continue to be U.S. – China trade negotiations as a successful deal or at the very least extension to the next tariff deadline (March 1st) has largely been priced into stocks at current levels, so any renewed tensions could hit stocks, potentially hard, in the coming sessions.

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in MarketWatch on February 11, 2019

A lot of the good news out there is already priced into stocks at these levels,” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, in a Monday note to clients. “At 2,700 or higher, the S&P 500 isn’t priced for perfection, but…”  Read the full article here.