What’s in Today’s Report:
- The Current State of U.S./China Trade Negotiations: Whose Telling the Truth? Stocks or Treasury Yields?
- Why A Spike in Jobless Claims Caught Our Attention (Highest Since June)
Futures are marginally higher as the U.S./China trade saga remains the singularly dominant influence on markets.
The commentary overnight was positive as Larry Kudlow said the “mood music” of the negotiations was “pretty good” and a deal is close, although there was no actual new information presented.
Economically there were no surprises as EU HICP (their CPI) rose 1.1%, as expected.
Today there are several important economic reports including (in order of importance): Retail Sales (E: 0.2%), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (E: 5.0) and Industrial Production (E: -0.4%). Broadly, markets need to see strong data to imply the U.S. economy is stabilizing and starting to re-accelerate.
But, beyond the data, U.S./China trade will remain a huge influence over stocks so any more headlines that a phase one deal is imminent will likely send stocks higher (even if there is no actual news contained in the comments).