Is the Bond Market Warning About an Economic Slowdown?

What’s in Today’s Report:

Is the Bond Market Warning About an Economic Slowdown?

Markets are trading with a risk-off tone to start Q2 this morning with equity futures modestly lower while safe-haven Treasuries and gold rally as traders look ahead to the Trump administration’s looming tariff announcements.

Economically, China’s March Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 vs. (E) 50.6.

In Europe, the March Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.6 vs. (E) 48.7, Narrow Core HICP fell to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.6% y/y, and the UE Rate fell to 6.1% vs. (E) 6.2%.

The mostly encouraging global economic data overnight is helping drive overseas equity markets higher this morning despite the weakness in U.S. futures.

Looking into today’s session, a busy week of domestic economic data releases kicks off with the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 49.6) and JOLTS (E: 7.6 million) both due to be released shortly after the bell.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET). Investors will be looking for a dovish tone from Barkin and “Goldilocks” economic data with stable growth and evidence of cooling or at least steady inflation pressures.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today

Our Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter will be released today.

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