Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update
  • Continuing Claims Hit 2-Year High: Chart
  • Philly Fed Survey Takeaways – More Signs of Stagflation
  • Industrial Production Confirms Slowdown in Factor Sector

Stock futures are modestly higher this morning as soft U.K. consumer spending data. Combined with an as-expected drop in EU inflation are supporting a continued bid in bond markets.

Economically, U.K. Retail Sales fell -0.3% vs. (E) +0.3%. As the Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates across the board, falling significantly from 4.3% to 2.9% y/y. Positively the “Narrow Core” figure eased to 4.2% from 4.5%.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.35 million) and barring a big surprise, the release should not move markets.

There are a handful of Fed officials speaking today with Barr & Collins, Daly, Goolsbee, and Collins again all on the schedule. If the Fed speakers stick to the same narrative (less hawkish) expect more of the same sideways, digestive trading in equities today with the threat of a continued move higher based on bullish market momentum.

Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update

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